Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 10:55

The DOW reached 21169 on 01 March and has now put on 37.73% since the 15370 of 24 Aug 2015. Having rebounded to 17978, it did consolidate somewhat by sticking in a (14.06%) correction culminating in 15451 on 20 Jan 2016 but it desperately needs a pukka correction now to take the heat out of the market.

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 10:46

A year or so ago, I considered that the cyclical Bear of 2011 negated the need for a crash later on and this was reinforced with the DOW's 3 months of weakness during 2015 which saw the DOW decline (16.24%) from 18381 to 15370 (24 Aug 2015).

However, since then, the American markets have started to get a tad overheated and a serious correction is now overdue.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2017 10:38

Remember it well Pat, only a teenager at the time but already fascinated
by financial markets- a misspent youth ).

Started trading/investing at 19.

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 10:36

I believe the equivalent period to today back then was 1986/87 and we may actually be heading towards a similar outcome i.e. the crash Bear that started on 26 Aug 1987 which saw the DOW decline (41.17%) from 2747 to 1616 in just 39 days.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2017 10:32

Boom and bust (and bear markets) have not been abolished, as our former
esteemed PM found out ... we have abolished boom and bust - worked out
a little differently.

Bull markets end in euphoria, it appears counterintuitive although perhaps logical
when you think it through.


If I am long a particular stock, far prefer reading an opposing view, helps clarify and
sometimes I may be overlooking some aspect, the later being quite likely in my case!.

So different views interesting, and also dependant on individual circumstances
risk tolerance etc.

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 10:31

Talking of market crashes, overnight I have been looking again at the only real comparable period to today i.e. the secular Bull that started in 1980 or 1982 (depending on how one interprets it) and which culminated for DOW in the first few days of 2000 (end of 1999 for FTSE).

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 10:21

Invisage is probably young enough to essentially suit an out-and-out LTBH strategy and it could work well for him/her. Investing in Apple, for example, 20 years ago and holding would have worked well. However, I doubt whether there are any real stars of the future within Invisage's current portfolio although some, admittedly, have done very well in the recent past.

However, he/she is blinkered in a number of key areas and lives in a world of half-truths and anecdotal evidence and doesn't seem to yet fully understand the world of investing. I doubt very much whether he/she has had to endure a severe cyclical Bear market let alone a secular Bear market and he/she doesn't seem to believe in pound cost averaging.

He/she has done well to identify the cost effectiveness of Trackers but places too much emphasis on controlling trading costs and doesn't seem to realise that banking profits is a key objective of investing and that switching to another stock or buying back the same stock cheaper at a later date can also end up saving money.

In his/her last post the claim was that lower markets is a good thing because one can buy cheaper. This is potentially true but where is the money coming from if one is 100% invested. The odd few dividends won't cut the mustard if the market does actually crash or suffer a severe decline...perhaps there is substantial additional funds yet to be deployed in which case his/her LTBH strategy makes a lot more sense.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2017 09:42

Hi Pat thanks, with this morning's add just up to 1530 shares,
it's about 20% of what I held Friday.

Would like lower, however not holding my breath on that one!.


Gateside, looked at the WG/AMFW deal, Wood Group shareholders vote next
month, and some appear to look for a definite timetable on deal completion
announced around June- providing shareholders approve the proposal.

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 09:35

Good luck with GSK @ 12.00, EI.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2017 09:10

Added back a few GSK sold yesterday.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2017 09:00

Invisage, would agree with a lot of what you post as it happens.

Look at a 100 year chart of the SPX, and it kicks the point home.

Timing, short term trading and taking large single stock positions, all of
which I do, are not something I would ever recommend to anyone else.

Holding a range of low cost index trackers and pound cost averaging is
the best approach for most investors.

[invisage] 25/4/2017 22:53

My investment horizon is longer than the next few weeks and months pat. Lower markets is a good thing, I can buy cheaper.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 22:31

I'm really going to enjoy myself when the markets plummet in the not too distant future!

BTW, Invisage, a Recession is something completely different from a stock market slump and a stock market crash is something else again and you better hope and pray one doesn't happen in the coming weeks and months cos you won't fare too well.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 22:06

If you read my posts, I sold some of my smaller holdings which I had outside my ISA. That was the reason on sold. It was nothing to do with the Market going down last week. My broker has now added this year's ISA money to my ISA. This is sitting with other cash in my ISA waiting to be invested. And for now the Markets look overvalued and I am going to wait for a better buying opportunity

[invisage] 25/4/2017 21:49

Whatever it was Gateside it was enough to get you and others holding a large portion of cash.In my experience market timing is v difficult. Buying quality and holding seems a better bet to me. Quality stocks bounce back much faster after a crash so the trick is to buy decent companies.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 21:41

The Markets last week were hardly a correction!

[invisage] 25/4/2017 21:33

No point shorting or going in cash with all the liquidity floating around imo. It's the Fed that causes recessions. Watch what the Fed says. Rate tightening takes time to play out.I keep reading everywhere of ppl selling and cashing up. Makes me think a crash anytime soon is less likely. Recessions happen out of the blue when you least expect it.The DOW back at 21k and the nasdaq making new highs. Hardly feels like a market about to crash. We needed recent correction to push higher though.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 21:24

Thx, useful to know for working out weekly estimate.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 21:19

About 25% cash, which is high for me.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 21:15

Yeah 21 shares, fingers twitched over the buy button this morning, but I held off.Tempted to buy back POLY or add to CEY though

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 21:09

I think Invisage was more of the view that, when markets drop, they always rise back up again to the same levels and beyond. I pointed out the case of Japan and the fact that some companies never recover to anywhere near their previous highs.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 21:06

How much percentage cash you holding now then, Gateside, and did you re-buy any of the companies you offlined? I've got you holding 21 at the moment. is that right?

[gateside] 25/4/2017 21:01

The more I look at the Markets, considering keeping a higher percentage in cash than normal. They look toppy.Though would a Conservative win in June boost the Markets? Though maybe that's probably already priced in.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 20:59

Thanks for the insight to that strategy.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 20:59

They are going to crack? You sure?I thought Invisage said they were going up forever! ;-)