Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 13:09

Our stock level now @ 53.5% after earlier further reduction on FTSE100 trackers.

Next target c7267 whereupon some of our individual FTSE100 companies may be sold.

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 10:14

Goodness me, what a morning.

Reduced my GSK position by 65%, taking some profit.
I was the best part of 2K down at Friday's close, so at least
some positive news.

Also took some profit on Friday's DLG's buys,
selling 13,000 shares at 342.80.

CNA, would rather not look, very small position luckily.

However not a day to have a very heavy cash holding (.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 09:05

This should be just a recovery wave...fancy c55.00% of 7406:7097 (2nd principal wave down) which comes out @ c7267 (already got to 7250). However, I've already reduced on one of our trackers with stock level currently @ 56.6% (started week @ 59.5%). Looking for a revisit of c7250 to reduce further.

[gateside] 24/4/2017 08:47

Yeah... That's the word I meant. Silly auto correction on my computer!

[ccr1958] 24/4/2017 07:59

France 40 up 4.3%, FTSE up 1.33%, may be a little more left in the tank .

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 07:57

Glad I significantly increased on our FTSE100 trackers last week.

Also, vg trading update from CCC this morning...could be a flyer.

[ccr1958] 24/4/2017 07:50

yes the major indices certainly delivered over night , didn't sleep much :)

[nasdaqpat] 23/4/2017 22:33

I think you mean divisive, Gateside!

Le Pen would likely encourage a Europe of cooperating Nation States rather than the bureaucracy that exists now. Hopefully, the NF's extreme views on immigration would soften over time.

[gateside] 23/4/2017 21:28

Support Le Pen?? Her policies would be so decisive for Europe as a continent. Hopefully she will be easily beaten.Our political system, First Past The Post, which is so unproportional, will never allow outsiders to succeed. Which is maybe a good thing, stops extremists like Le Pen ever getting in, in the UK.

[nasdaqpat] 23/4/2017 20:55

As much as I'd like the French people to vote for Le Pen and thereby tell the EU where to go, I am also keen that Political Parties (in this case National Front) get beaten. Macron is the leader of a 'movement' rather than a Party so his election would also be a step in the right direction. The UK will eventually need to follow and, ultimately, #binparties will prevail.

[essentialinvestor] 23/4/2017 19:35

DAX futures Up nearly 1% atm, UKX about half that.

[gateside] 23/4/2017 19:32

With Macron being in the lead, I can see that boosting Markets this week.

[essentialinvestor] 23/4/2017 19:13

The Macron early estimates are supportive, removes one big area of uncertainty.

Crude important in the week ahead imv, a continued fall opens wider market
downside, the reverse also applies.

[invisage] 23/4/2017 19:09

FTSE and DOW futures booming. Time for people sat on cash to come back in the market.

[essentialinvestor] 23/4/2017 10:38

There is an embarrassment of riches in quality listed UK large/mid caps atm,
however in many cases you are now asked to pay 20-23x earnings, where
16-17x may be available in the next cycle downturn.

Examples, HLMA, CPI, SGE, Croda, ULVR, DGE, just a few from the top of my head.

[essentialinvestor] 23/4/2017 10:27

Gateside, do not have a specific timetable on that, will double check.


Crude is very important for wider equites near these levels imv,
if crude dipped towards 45 or under can see downward scope opening up
for markets.

If I wanted to take a more bullish outlook for equities, there are
a significant number of crash/correction calls currently,
usually a bullish sign.

[gateside] 22/4/2017 18:03

5 shares I highlighted back in early January as possible buys for my portfolio, with their performance to date, in 2017

ANTO +20.2%
CBG +14.1%
CTEC +22.7%
MARS +4.3%
SMP +14.8%

Pity I didn't buy any of them!!! Question is, will they retrace to make a good entry point or keep increasing?

[nasdaqpat] 22/4/2017 15:49

For me, the level of cash held is proportionate to the level of risk in the market. I am happy to hold lots of cash. However, like you, I have seen many companies in my reserve monitor (most of which I sold too cheap) steam ahead whilst existing holdings have struggled. Clearly I am not running our winners long enough and not ditching our losers early enough.

Once this cyclical Bull has run its course (probably about this time next year), I intend to sell all of our stock bar a few tiddlers for growth and adopt the 'short kill' methodology that EI appears to successfully employ. It will be the easiest way to make money in the ensuing cyclical Bear and holding 65% cash would be commonplace and make me feel very comfortable.

However, the problem is that we are probably still in the cyclical Bull so holding a large amount of cash risks missing out on opportunities; although if one can make say £4,000 a month by risking only a third or half of one's capital then that has to be a good thing. Why be greedy!

[nasdaqpat] 22/4/2017 15:26

Got it from an internet search:-



Sorry, forgotten how to do a link.

[gateside] 22/4/2017 13:45

Pat... Many thanks for that. Is that from WG. or AMFW website? Or is that general rules for all takeovers. My internet searches got me nowhere. I'm the same as EI, I don't like sitting on cash, more happier being nearer fully invested. Looking around for investment ideas. My watch list from the beginning of the year, which is shares that I don't own has easily outperformed my portfolio in the last few months!

[nasdaqpat] 22/4/2017 13:03

Gateside,

Day 60 Last date for offer to be declared unconditional as to acceptances.
If offer lapses bidder unable to re-bid for 12 months – “offer period”
ends
Day 74 Earliest date on which offer can close (assuming the offer not
unconditional as to acceptances until Day 60)
Day 81 Last date for fulfilment/waiver of all other conditions (assuming the
offer not unconditional as to acceptances until Day 60) – all offer
conditions to be fulfilled/waived within 21 days after unconditional
as to acceptances
If and when the offer has become unconditional and has received
acceptances in respect of 75% of target shares, target can de-list
on 20 business days’ notice. Subsequent re-registration of target
as a private company often requires a general meeting of target
shareholders on 14/21 clear days’ notice and, potentially, a waiting
period thereafter
Day 95 Cash consideration to be posted to shareholders (assuming the
offer was only declared wholly unconditional on Day 81) – since
consideration t

[nasdaqpat] 22/4/2017 12:56

I've been having another look at GSK and the long-term direction is biased to the downside albeit the company's fundamentals/outlook appear to be getting stronger.

The most recent Segmental high was 1735.5p on 11 Oct 2016 (presumably helped by the weak pound) but that was down from 1816p on 28 May 2013 which was in turn well short of its 2001 peak of 2050p.

Its last intraday low was actually 1511.5p on 30 Jan. It then rallied 12.0% to 1693.5p on 16 Mar but that followed an initial 11.0% rally from 1447.5p on 6 Dec 2016 to 1606.5p on 9 Feb. This 2 wave advance (1447.5p:1606.5p:1511.5p:1693.5p) finishing under the prior high of 1735.5p has all the hallmarks of what I call a Phantom wave and suggests lower lows to come.

However, the Bear market low of 1227.5p on 29 Sep 2015 was ahead of the Bear market low of 1161p on 9 Aug 2011 which suggests that GSK is in something of a renaissance and it was relatively unaffected by the pre referendum Bear market low. In addition, projected 2017 earnings of c111p (up from both 2015 & 2016) put it on a relatively undemanding current multiple of 14.8. I can see it trading off a PER of
at least 18 within the next 12 months so a target of c1900p seems eminently achievable.

Good luck with it anyway, EI

[gateside] 22/4/2017 12:47

Any idea what the timescale is for the takeover of AMFW by WG.?These things seem to take a long time.

[essentialinvestor] 22/4/2017 11:31

Yes sure Pat thanks, will continue to post if I have any decent ideas,
but very much a case of imv only.

WG. at the top of my buy list on a market pullback, DLG looking interesting
near these levels, they update soon.

Not comfortable holding this amount of cash, find it considerably
more stressful than being fully invested.

Big week for GSK on the way, Tim who mainly posts on the FX board has referenced 1520
as a possible area of support, 1520 would be a painful area for me.

[nasdaqpat] 21/4/2017 19:09

Thx for the updates, guys.

EI, are you sure you don't want to be included in performance table?