William Sinclair Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 05/7/2012 07:16

Oh, for Peat's sake.

[drewz] 16/6/2012 13:31

Hi Edmond,

I bought approx 30 bags of 60ltr compost this spring for my borders, containers and baskets, 80% of which was J Arthur Bowers and 20% Westland. This supplemented another 12+ barrow loads of my own home made compost.

The J A Bowers multipurpose is pretty basic stuff but it had been discounted to 4 bags for £10 - very cheap - it's usually 3 for £10. It was piled high on multiple pallets at the entrance to both B&Q and Van Hage so they were clearly getting a cheap deal for volume from SNCL.

New Horizon is very good - just like best homemade - but it is pricey and never on offer round my way.

Re. making your own from kitchen veg waste, cardboard packaging, grass cuttings and prunings, if you add some SNCL Garotta accelerator (or pee on your heap - yes it really does work, it's a powerful accelerator - or add horse manure if available)) you can get barrow loads of fine wonderfully clean-smelling crumbly brown stuff within 12 months easily.

The secret is to break the waste up as much as possible by chopping prunings etc when adding to the heap and turning it/digging it over every 2-3 months to get oxygen in. Wet it regualrly if there is dry weather and cover in winter to keep the heat in and speed decomposition up. Add earthworms to speed it up even more.

Collect black bin liners of tree leaves in autumn, wet them thoroughly and puncture the bags for drainage, then leave to rot down for a year - or make a leaf cramp in an out of the way corner - makes wonderful crumbly potting compost which you just need to sieve to the fineness you need before spring potting up and seed sowing.

Don't add leaves to your compost heap - it will slow its decomposition down hugely - tree leaves decompose differently to garden waste and need to be kept separate.

Of course, it is a lot easier to shell out and load up the car boot twice a year or more, but substitution is easily accomplished with a bit of sweat and toil when finances are tight.


P.S. Well done SNCL - shame about the high price! ----->

Gardens: peat-free compost
Peat-based compost is bad for the environment, but are greener alternatives any good?

These are my top six peat-free composts for sowing, potting and containers (prices are a guide only and exclude any delivery charge):

New Horizon organic and peat-free multipurpose compost
Widely available, pleasant texture, and a 2012 Which? Gardening best buy container compost. For sowing, potting and containers; £5.99 for 50 litres.

[yump] 15/6/2012 15:17

This stupid argument needs putting to rest.

From Finals 2009:

"Traditionally sales of garden products are relatively resilient during economic downturns."

However for things that DO and HAVE affected the business markedly you will find references to:

Quality and timing of the peat harvest (weather)
Timing of the spring buying season (weather)
Inflation (transport costs)
Changes to the environmental restrictions on peat harvesting and production.

[yump] 15/6/2012 15:00

You seem to have totally missed the point that if the scenario you are talking about takes place, then its a case of which stocks are safest. Why on earth do you should choose to single out SNCL as one that will drop 25%, as if a load of others wouldn't.

If you want to debate which are the best stocks in the event of a crisis occurring, that's another matter and a different argument.

But you're assuming the crisis will happen and singling out SNCL to prove something or other - I have no idea why. Nobody is saying SNCL is recession proof or an incredibly resilient business model.

Why not just go around all the stocks you can think of, pick the previous support level that is significantly below the current price and just post the same thing on all those threads ? There are threats to every stock from a credit crisis.

Surely with your view you should be just shorting the market.

Or writing one of those 'Read this important investment newsletter now about the forthcoming crisis that will destroy your investments, unless you ACT NOW'. publications.

Come on then, what are the safest stocks in a credit crisis and why ?
You raised the issue.

[drewz] 15/6/2012 10:43

Lampooning the argument doesn't assist understanding, yump.

It isn't a case of SNCL 'leading the charge downwards' or folk 'going on a gardening spending spree'.

As we know, SNCL have a leading position in supply of garden centre growing medium, fertilizers and lawncare.

If/when the UK is hit by a severe credit crunch (and it is imminent, as B of E actions are now presaging), spending will be hit hard across the board.

I am suggesting there are many ways gardeners can substitute or defer buying SNCL products - by reusing 'tired' garden compost, making more of their own, deferring lawn top dressing etc.

How resilient is the SNCL business model? How would a 10% drop off in sales affect the bottom line? Are food retailers and energy suppliers a safer place to park your money over the next couple of years whilst the €uro debt crisis works its way through?

Also what about the threat to SNCL's market share from Westland Horticulture who are expanding aggressively and marketing new 'advanced' products more aggressively than SNCL?

I have been around long enough, investing through several UK recessions, to know that adopting an ostrich position with fingers in ears, saying SNCL is recession proof, top line growth will continue indefinitely, all is hunky dory etc - is simply asking for trouble.

[yump] 15/6/2012 08:39

drewz

You're obviously convinced that SNCL is going to be leading the charge downwards when (IF) the forthcoming disaster market hits, so I'm not going to bother arguing any more, despite the fact that there have been clear statements about the effect of the economy on SNCL, which contradict your assertions.

Presumably you've got some stocks you regard as safer. I suggest you check which stocks suffered most during past market downturns, just in case. Although in the scenario you are talking about, its best to be out of the market now, as you seem convinced its going to happen.

Out of interest I'd be curious to find some people who went on a gardening spending spree when they were flush with cash in the boom times. Material for a stand-up sketch there I think.

( A point that might actually be valid might be that house-owners don't spend so much on having special landscaped gardens designed and put together in hard times. What proportion of SNCL's revenue derives from that is another matter)

[edmondj] 15/6/2012 08:07

Compost heaps are sodden, the only way to get a decent growing medium for younger plants is visit the garden centres... where the best offer currently appears to be the New Horizon peat-free multi-purpose compost, three 60 litre sacks for the price of two, rated best by Which? Having started using it, it's great.

[drewz] 14/6/2012 16:31

All you need to grow your own veg is a £1.99 packet of Suttons seeds.

Not much help to SNCL, whose products are essentially discretionary and will always sell in higher volumes when the economy is on the up and folk feel flush with cash, imho.

[3800] 14/6/2012 15:53

When times are hard drewz people don't waste money on Kleenex but they do grow their own veg.
3800

[drewz] 14/6/2012 14:58

Gardening for most is a leisure pastime, therefore by definition is discretionary.

Sure, when times are tough big ticket items might well go first (holidays, new cars, new kitchens etc), and small ticket (e.g. garden centre) items become a substitute for a while (your chocolate analogy refers).

However, when times get really tough, then those discretionary small ticket items get the chop also. Those bags of J Arthur Bower's finest get left on the shelf and folk recycle their own green waste into compost, make their own comfrey/stinging nettle fertiliser etc.

And believe me, the credit crunch has nowhere near hit us fully yet in the UK. We are staring into the abyss of a worldwide slump.

Get a box of Kleenex out and have a listen to this:

[drewz] 13/6/2012 18:36

Certainly, stocks that remain cash generative should bounce back quickly after being knocked back by a general market sell off over macroeconomic woes.

The bigger issue is whether the imminent €uro meltdown will accentuate the deepening credit crunch in UK such that discretionary spending dries up.

If so, SNCL's profitability would shrivel up like sweet peas in a hot drought.

Don't forget UK, EU, US and JPN are sinking under an ever greater weight of debt.

SNCL may not be as 'safe' as you seem to think. Not whilst stagflation stalks the land.

[yump] 13/6/2012 16:08

You could say that for any stock or all stocks at the moment if there's a widespread sell-off, but its particularly irrelevant to this one as the share price movements have not coincided with Euro crisis moments.

You may as well say your portfolio will drop by 30% overall in the forthcoming sell-off and assume that all the work by all the companies will be undone.

If there's a sell-off of course.

[drewz] 13/6/2012 13:23

Back to test 120p support in the forthcoming €urocrisis sell-off, I expect. Sadly.

All the good work undone by dreadful market sentiment.

[yump] 22/5/2012 09:30

At 200p+ it seemed pretty fully valued unless the significant growth from last year continues. On the other hand at 160p the dividend is about 3.5%, which I can't get in a bank.

So been using it as a 'bank' with what I think is a reasonable chance of growth over a few years, as a result of their acquisitions and market position.

May have dropped off to this level because of the weather - who knows ?

[bookbroker] 22/5/2012 08:56

Is this co. not somewhat undervalued, recent statement suggested performance holding up, and irrespective of the recent cold and wet weather along the with the hosepipe ban in much of the south affecting the spring selling season, what we do know is that despite the on going dispute with Natural England, what is certain is that they are working their way through the wind-down of peat harvesting without too much disruption, and importantly know that there is £9m. in escrow as a result of the current offer from N.E. The balance sheet is strong and new products will more than likely compensate for the loss of peat harvesting, and right now fuel costs are dropping off, I assume one of the largest costs is incurred in actually drying the peat.

[js8106455] 04/5/2012 12:01

Found this recent interview with Sinclair Williams Holdings, take a look:

[bookbroker] 04/3/2012 11:24

Hopefully a positive outcome to the dispute with natural England concerning compensation for the cessation of peat extraction at Bolton Fell, what we already know is that SNCL have been offered £12m., but as a result of the closure of the adjoining processing plant are requesting an improvement on that figure.

[cupra kid] 02/3/2012 14:42

I believe it was tipped in Shares Mag

[yump] 02/3/2012 14:37

Dunno, but that constant upwards 'creep' was looking promising. If I had time I'd so some sort of a study to see how often it ends in a jump. Might be my imagination though.

[18bt] 02/3/2012 11:42

What's firing the share price?

[yump] 24/1/2012 11:47

Perhaps part of the smaller stock recovery, rather than SNCL specific ?

[bookbroker] 24/1/2012 11:28

I like's it, I like it a lot!