William Sinclair Share Discussion Threads

[cyfran101] 10/6/2013 23:37

Not great figures at all.

Loss, increasing borrowings, brokers all downgrading, div cut, unable to make up for cold spring start and a Syperfyba stuttering start.

Normally the best time to invest in an agricultural company as you get a bargain awaiting the better times however SNCL's better times are over two years away due to higher CAPEX.

"Costs associated with the development, which are being closely managed, will continue to impact the Company's financial performance for the next two years as some operations will require duplicated overhead"

I'm of the opinion the bottom has yet to be reached and will watch from the sidelines.

[dell1234] 10/6/2013 10:46

Shares Mag looks at William Sinclair following the dividend cut.. hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/william-sinclair-wilts-on-dividend-cut#.UbWuhPk3seo

[supreme mo] 12/4/2013 18:16

Small article about these in Investors Chronicle..today with a sell rating....

[chrisdonohue] 11/4/2013 14:40

Market makers took on a lot of stock around 138 from people who saw that a late spring means lots of lost sales. They would like to offload it at around 140 or more while there are buyers responding to the "there is still hope" TU. One buy of 2158 for £3000, but no sellers - until the company is required to tell us how abysmal sales have been in the "important" spring period.

[salpara111] 11/4/2013 14:17

don't get the price action at all!

[yump] 10/4/2013 17:20

I was going to post the same thing. Quite bizarre !

[shanklin] 10/4/2013 15:17

This is quite the most amazing response to a weak TS I think I have ever seen.

[chrisdonohue] 10/4/2013 12:03

Anyone who knows a little about gardening and/or retail knows that it is impossible to catch up the effects of an extremely late spring as gardeners give up on early crops and sow instead later ones. So their revenue will decline significantly.

Longer term, you are talking about a company which in 2011 earned 13.4p a share and paid out 6.2p a share in dividends. This is extremely unlikely to happen in 2013 but could happen in 2014 if there is better weather as food prices for vegetables (much coming from Spain and priced in euros) continue to rise and more and more people are trying to grow their own and think (erroneously, in my view) that they need peat to accomplish this.

If you are prepared to wait until 2014 for a share on a PE of around 10 in a weather-dependant market yielding less than 5%, by all means buy now. But, in my view, there will be much better opportunities forthcoming as the effects of the cold weather force them to issue a Trading Update that includes numbers rather than hopes. The sharp rise today is on very small numbers of shares.

[salpara111] 08/4/2013 08:49

Have to agree that this is a rubbish trading update in that they have not told us how they have performed in the last month which is critical to their full year outcome....just saying that we hope to sell now that it is getting warmer is not a trading update! I am also unclear exactly where it is getting warmer as I am still running the central heating for a large part of the day when normally I would have it totally off by this time of year.
I will not be taking a stake.

[yump] 08/4/2013 06:58

They cannot possibly suddenly escape the effects of a dire Spring this year, when they haven't in previous years. Both retail and wholesale had bad effects in previous bad Springs, particularly retail, from which there was not a full recovery. Presumably because retail is for quite a few gardeners an 'optional' occupation. If you can't plant the things you want in Spring and you can't get into the garden because of cold or snow, it doesn't work to plant them 8 weeks later.

They may be better geared up than competitors to cope with any rush, but that doesn't mean the rush will give the same sales as an orderly purchasing process.

[edmondj] 08/4/2013 06:53

If they are materially below forecast say end-April, then they should warn then with the details as the shortfall would be impossible to make up, but currently I feel it's premature than to admit they are obviously being affected.

Could still be 'a spring selling season of contrasts'.

(No position in the shares.)

[hybrasil] 08/4/2013 06:51

What a stupid trading update - no guidelines no comparisons- whatever advisor let them issue this should be got rid of.
Possibly unnecessarily it now translates to a SELL

[drewz] 08/4/2013 06:36

EJ, we all know what the weather has been like.

What we don't know is the extent to which the bad weather has impacted SNCL's sales.

They imply the impact has been significant but appear afraid to give any clear guidance to investors.

Simply not good enough.

[edmondj] 08/4/2013 06:16

Maybe a bit harsh, drewz, although they are 'wearing hope on their sleeve' entertaining the prospect they will make up any shortfall very soon! I think it's a fair inference from the garden centres' levels of activity, demand must be down for Sinclair's products; but if the weather was to suddenly warm then the tills would be ringing. So it's tricky to guide investors right now; if they are negative then they could conceivably have to issue a better update within weeks, leaving sellers anguished.

Yet despite promises from the weather forecasters it remains wretchedly cold, I've certainly no desire to do much beyond grass trimming that would require 'growing media' etc; so maybe the sales will be permanently lost. It's still premature to say but I'm not hopeful.

[drewz] 08/4/2013 06:09

'SNCL hopes the weather will improve soon and that gardeners will then return to garden centres and start shopping'....


Is this a trading update or a weather report?

How can they get away with calling this a 'trading update' when they don't give any clear guidance on trading, revenues or profitability?

To explain that cold weather is causing delays in consumer spending without mentioning their own financial performance in the light of this adversity is not good enough.

SNCL should be censured by the LSE as investors are being short changed here.

[salpara111] 02/4/2013 09:03

If they follow last years reporting schedule then there will be a trading update next week which I suspect will not be pretty.

[drewz] 01/4/2013 03:22

Wintry Easter weather leaves garden centres and DIY stores shivering

Garden centre sales expected to be as much as 50% down on usual Easter levels as gardeners put off usual spring tasks


The Garden Centre Association says sales of plants, flowerpots, compost and propagators are all well down compared with the same period last year

[salpara111] 27/3/2013 16:57

I had been looking to go short but the spread is a killer.
They are going to get hammered by the weather.
March/April is the time for planting and if you miss most of that window you dont get to make it up later.
Not their fault but if we really are going to see much more unpredictable weather in the future they need to work out how they are going to deal with that.

[yump] 27/3/2013 12:24

Well, this time we agree. I can't see how they can avoid the consequences of the snow.

To some extent, I guess people will catch up as soon as there is a warm spell, but in the meantime the share price could really get a battering, which might take it down to silly levels, bearing in mind they've still got a big market share and barring a total climate change, gardening will still go ahead. It will take more than a couple of bad years to put all those enthusiasts off.

In fact, growing our own in a few years, might end up being a good form of security the way things are going.

[drewz] 27/3/2013 11:23

I expect yet another profits warning on account of the seasonally adverse weather - coldest March for 40 years - too cold for gardening - garden centres deserted over Easter, which is of course the most important trading event in the calendar for this industry.

I expect 110p will be visited in the next 30 days here.

[yump] 03/1/2013 12:02

I might get back in, if it becomes apparent that the replacement peat is sufficiently widely used to prevent the risk of weather issues. Its always been subject to the wrong weather, but things seemed to be going reasonably well with consolidation in the sector, plus the gradual movement away from dependence on the peat harvest. So with the divi, it looked relatively safe.

Fortunately after weeks of looking out of the window at the rain last year, I got out before the actual effect on SNCL was announced, as rain at the wrong time of year has affected the company in the past and last year was obviously the worst for ages.

Peat is pretty boring. The new peat isn't though.
Most of my investment went into 1Spatial. I've been patient with SNCL, so being patient with another company in a more exciting market should be a doddle !

[pugugly] 03/1/2013 07:59

From today's accounts

Actuarial losses on defined benefit pension plans (3,741K)

Yet another company being potentially run for the benefit of the pension scheme apart from a diabolical year for trading AND now a £5 million loan from Lloyds for the new site.

sill so far as I can see uncertainty over the level of compensation due from blocked activities.

Personally very much on the sidlines until greater clarity but suspect teh share price will continue to fall.

thoughts ?

[bookbroker] 21/11/2012 15:22

Not sure why this co. pursues its case with Natural England over compensation, already holding £12m. in escrow, got their plans quashed with Chat Moss when they believed they had good case, take what your offered and accept it and get on with the business of operating without the use of peat, all its doing is consuming cash in legal fees which they can ill afford!

[drewz] 19/10/2012 23:08

Yump, steady on there young fella.

You're now, sadly, coming across as the so familiar buy-and-hope 'newbie' investor who gets angry with himself when one of his first speculative punts falls over.

When you've been at this game as long as I have, you'll realise that it's all too easy to fall in love with a share and become blinkered and 'rose-tinted' over its prognosis.

Not to worry; I am sure you will learn a valuable lesson from this experience.

All the best.