William Sinclair Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 19/10/2012 14:19

No I wouldn't listen to YOUR reason, which was economic.
Have you got memory problems ? In which case, just go back and read your own posts - if you can read that is.

Troll.

[drewz] 19/10/2012 14:01

Down, down, deeper and down.

I did warn you months ago that SNCL was heading for 110p - 115p, but you wouldn't listen to reason.

[yump] 19/10/2012 09:55

The weather could be perfect next year, but there's a lot of fallout to come for SNCL, as they have said in their announcement.

I was quite prepared to hold as a safe dividend with fairly static capital, however got out over the summer with the continuing bad weather, in case capital started to deteriorate.

In terms of their actual business, the problem is that the use of substitute peat doesn't have a fast enough uptake to compensate for the weather. Plus the potential positive rationalisations that can benefit from their acquisitions will also be hampered financially by the effect of the weather.

I don't have to take their pain.

[vraic] 09/10/2012 17:08

See Sunday Times 7/10/12 appointments page has advert for new ceo
Interesting to see who joins.

[drewz] 03/10/2012 11:25

William Sinclair shares sank 7.7pc after the peat and horticultural product supplier issued its third profits warning this year, blaming the dismal summer weather for ruining the peat harvest.
Profits at the company were likely to slump by 94pc to just £200,000 this year, analysts at William Sinclair's broker WH Ireland calculated.



Britain's biggest peat supplier has warned that the awful summer could leave garden centres struggling to grow enough plants, after admitting it had been unable to harvest the nation's waterlogged bogs.

William Sinclair Holdings issued a profits warning on Tuesday, saying it had only been able to achieve about a fifth of its normal annual harvest of about 570,000 cubic metres of peat.

[yump] 02/10/2012 09:34

Your prognosis as you call it was based on the economic situation.

Whereas the FACT is that the business is suffering because of the weather.

You got the right result, but for completely the wrong reason.
You predicted the problems would occur because of the economy.
But its the weather that did it.

Try politics if you can't get your head around that.

Anyway, you've obviously been put up to this by my competitors to waste my time.
Bye.

[drewz] 02/10/2012 09:20

I think you are being rather naive taking SNCL's statements as gospel re weather being 100% responsible for missing forecast revenues.

It suits their purpose to deny their business is in a secular bear market and just put it down to a bit of bad weather.

Is demand for their products dropping just because it has been a bit more rainy than usual?

At the moment my prognosis early this summer has been fully vindicated.

I hope it helped people avoid losing money in SNCL over the last quarter.

[drewz] 02/10/2012 08:20

It was pretty obvious that they were going to warn on profits again, the way this summer has panned out.

Yes, the weather is primarily responsible, but garden centres are empty and you can't tell me that is solely on account of the weather.

Many old folk (SNCL's primary demographic) are skint and staying at home, worrying about their heating bills this winter, not buying stuff they don't need down their local garden centre.

[yump] 02/10/2012 07:16

Glad I got out - there wasn't any sign weather got any better, so it was on the cards that the suffering would not be recovered from quickly. Now its worse than expected. Bit of a shame the substitute peat market isn't more advanced.

and by the way...

its the weather that's caused it.

Thought I'd better just make that point again, just in case.

[yump] 05/8/2012 20:59

drewz is completely fixated on the economy, for some odd reason.

Odd because the Euro and the economic situation have been like this for 2 years now, so the effect on share prices will already have happened.

Despite SNCL having a long history of the weather being the critical factor (and it has been again).

Despite SNCL being in a market which is not affected much by consumer spending upturns and downturns.

Note the Euro strengthening against pound, from its recent lows.

@ Drewz
If you want to find out which areas of the economy and consumer spending go up and down during booms and recessions, I suggest doing a little research.

PS.
I note you now include the weather in your list of problems.
Be interesting to see how your assessment changes to fit events as time progresses.

[ygor705] 04/8/2012 09:24

Drewz ...... I think that you are on the wrong tack re the impact of consumer expenditure on Sinclair. Yes, consumer expenditure does look flat going forward but the group has a big market to professional horticulturists and its consumers tend to be at the seniors end of the market where gardening is the No 1 activity and expenditure less impacted by the overall trend. News about Bolton Fell compensation could also help the share price although that may be a little way off yet. The Board are clearly unhappy about the £9m offered but I'm not sure what they are shooting for.

[drewz] 03/8/2012 17:26

People are skint.

Housing (and energy) costs still hugely inflated.

Investment returns and savings horribly depressed.

Awful weather.

There could be another couple of years yet of these dire economic headwinds if €uropean policy makers can't get their act together.

All in all a woeful outlook for SNCL, despite their strong market position, so I expect support for the share price back down around 110p.

[bookbroker] 03/8/2012 13:56

That was the third drewz, so things pretty much out in the open, we already know that they are pretty far down the line as fas their exit from the peat harvesting industry, and in relation to your earlier article it is certainly nothing to do with consumer spending that these guidance downgrades have occurred.

[drewz] 03/8/2012 11:04

Funny how profit warnings never come as singletons, but often in threes...

Further to fall here then.

[ygor705] 03/8/2012 09:03

The bad weather appears to be accelerating Sinclair's investment in drying equipment and non peat resources. The first surprises me (since when did we have dry summers in the uk?) and the second is probably wise. Clearly nothing to go for on the earnings front this year but it says a lot for the credibility of the management that the mark down of the share price appears to have sucked in mostly buyers!

[yump] 20/7/2012 10:41

I think you might start to get capital growth from this share at the point when the effects of the weather become very small ie. when its 95% the new fangled peat. Until then its divi-land imo.

Unless they continuously achieve reductions in costs with acquisitions and economies of scale with their distribution, year on year.

If you look back, they have been repeatedly affected by weather, which means it cannot be seen as a growth share, as they have no control over the weather.

[18bt] 20/7/2012 07:43

Another announcement this morning which shows sensible long term management actions taken by this company. One bad growing season will get ignored by next year.

[drewz] 09/7/2012 13:26

I notice more wet weather profit warnings - Marshalls, JJB Sports inter alia.

The old stock market adage 'profit warnings usually come in 3's' may well hold true again here.

Folk are miserable, hard-up and not spending.

[bookbroker] 05/7/2012 08:09

Hold on I would, solid brands, sitting on a heap of cash as a result of existing settlement with Natural England, who want them out of peat harvesting, a good thing if the weather continues like this for the rest of the century, must be difficult to harvest a bog when it is practically under water, coupled with the cost of drying the peat, they have introduced good alternatives. On top of that there is a possibility of a higher final settlement with NE. once it has completed its way via the tribunal. Gardening will always remain a popular pastime, this stock is just not going to set the world alight, always a possibility of corporate action as a value asset.

[yump] 05/7/2012 07:56

As I said, there's more threat from the weather than the Euro problems and there always has been.

Holding probably depends on whether you're in for the divi - its hardly been touted as a mega-growth stock. That could still be in for good measure, although obviously delayed quite a while.

[drewz] 05/7/2012 07:48

Blimey, that was quick.

My RNS email alert didn't bring it up for some reason.

They are playing down their problems rather: 'continued cash generation' 'continued progressive dividend policy', despite the fact they have less stuff to sell and folk are less inclined to buy it?

I have no idea what investors will make of this rather opaque unquantified warning.

Hold on for now? Sell?

[shanklin] 05/7/2012 07:37

drewz

its here

[drewz] 05/7/2012 07:32

Does all this rain imply a peat-free profit warning in the offing here?