Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 02/11/2016 08:17

Where are my top three January 2015 shares now? Monthly report
02-Nov
DiscoDave4 (AHT/BVS/WKP) -14.40%
modform (ABC/PAYS/HLMA) 23.20%
apad (ABC/FEVR/TRCS) 31.10%
rjmahan (SIHL/WCW/SMIN) 18.50%
fozzie (CRAW/XPP/SPRP) -29.40%
FELIX99 (BREE/MSLH/PHTM) -3.80%
Piedro 4.70%

As you know I am interested in decisions made and their consequences regarding long-term holdings, not the usual future forecast competitions. Three shares is too small a sample and there aren't enough of us. There are some interesting observations nevertheless.

I'm happy to keep the record (very easy) if folks think this approach is worthwhile. Maybe top five (or more) LTBH holdings at the turn of the year? Any other ideas?

apad

[che7win] 02/11/2016 07:58

Osb update good.

[apad] 02/11/2016 07:56

I didn't get out of GDWN as much as I would have liked, red, but it is all under control now (less than 1% after current fall) and the BVXP target for the monies worked well. GDWN needs the valves orders to power the diversification and they haven't got it. XAR similarly sitting on the same sort of problem.

Good update from ABC this morning.I'm very comfortable with this holding. Well managed and know exactly what they are doing, without getting overexcited.

SOU update will cause a flurry of excitement.

Nothing on FEVR so far.

BOO share price still strong and very good feedback from social media comments and bulletin board contributors. I'm amused by Scott pulling out and moving into harmonicas. I guess he always needs the next new thing to write about.

Considering the number of Tintins following RDSB the surprise on the results was incomprehensible. One would have expected both sides to be analysed, if analysts they were. Tub thumpers more like.

US will dampen the markets for the rest of the month. Trouble is a Clinton win will leave her powerless on the home front, so she might (will) cause trouble abroad.

apad

[apad] 01/11/2016 13:31

...and after an amazing bull run, mod.

Maybe there is some bid support there.

Sort of changing my mind on ROR and appreciating their breadth more.

apad

[modform] 01/11/2016 12:25

WEIR, when the share price hardly drops on bad news, you know you are really in a bull market. Can you imagine such a statement last year and the impact it would have had on SP, it might be almost blue by the end of the day.

[redartbmud] 01/11/2016 09:15

Haywards

About sums it up.

The advisors involved will not let their reputations or ego's be tarnished by a failed IPO. It hits them hard in the pocket when they are passed over for a rival next time around.

Interesting times indeed.

red

[haywards26] 01/11/2016 09:10

I agree Red. I think the markets have risen higher than the underlying performance of entities and the wider economy justifies. Much of the rise has been on the back of currency weakness, which can artificially increase entities earnings.

IMO there is more risk of downside movements than there is substantial further increases for the very points you mention (US elections, Brexit formal exit, Putin, plus sentiment/general confidence)

When I hear of IPO's being pulled yet markets at near 5 year highs, alarm bells ring in my head.

Interesting times.

[redartbmud] 01/11/2016 08:47

Weir, Ror OUCH.

Pundits absolutely convinced Shell WILL have to cut divi unless oil prices strengthen. Capex still being cut. BP bombed.

Hey ho, happy days.

red

[redartbmud] 01/11/2016 08:44

Haywards

You may think so but Brexit, USA Elections, European Banks, Middle East, interest rates, company earnings and Putin will not go away.
Over recent weeks we have seen more stability in the FTSE100, but over the last few months we have seen a much wider trading range. The 250 has been a bit more volatile. Intra-day swings on the Dow have been in the 200 point range from time to time. Bond and fixed interest stocks have been falling steadily.

It takes a fair amount of time and effort to prepare the Prospectus and legal documents for a flotation and companies line up for a slot to float.

My reading of markets is one of downside bias. Most of the so called experts are calling a correction of 5-10% downwards fairly regularly. - My observations from dipping into CNBC.

Every time the market starts to fall some of those pundits are ready to believe that it is the start of a correction.

On that basis, I believe that the advisors will err on the side of caution and defer the float, on the basis that they might just go on a day that turns into a bloodbath.
Of course, I may be completely wrong.

Back when Marstons had their rights issue, they followed Greene King in the pecking order. Gnk did far better out of the arrangement. I believe that they were then, and still are now, a stronger company than Mars, but the latter had to offer a significantly bigger discount to get the rights away successfully as a result of being the tail end Charlie. Had they got in first then they would undoubtedly raised more capital for the same amount of shares issued ie achieved a better price. Mars is still suffering from that situation.

Just my thoughts on the scenario.

red

[apad] 01/11/2016 08:22

ROR in sympathy with WEIR but not SPX/
FWIW
apad

[haywards26] 31/10/2016 21:28

Hi Red,

The ftse 100 appears rather buoyant and steady currently around the 7000 mark

[redartbmud] 31/10/2016 17:34

mod

Thanks.

Haywards

The ideal time to launch an IPO is when markets are buoyant.
Underwriters want money in their pockets, for doing nowt, rather than shares in their pockets with an overhang in the market that depresses the share price.
The sellers want to price attractively so that there is a small premium, not discount on opening. At the same time they want the best price that they can get.
Launching into a volatile market is like launching a ship into a hurricane.

On that basis, the advisors would rather pull the launch, deferring for better times, rather than go ahead.

red

[haywards26] 31/10/2016 12:47

Why are so many IPO's being pulled at the last minute, when the FTSE is near a 5 year high? It seems strange and maybe a truer indication of the economy than the FTSE 100 level.

[modform] 31/10/2016 10:49

Red. In my sipp I put VED HGM , good yield well covered by earningsThe rest in my isa and trading account, so I just followed the chart in my stage analysis. For the bull market you can't look into the rear mirror as they all look expensive, the best guidance is to follow the chart as the smart money gives you the direction for the road ahead.

[redartbmud] 31/10/2016 10:35

mod

Were you in any way selective on your resources companies?
Eg Type of ore mined, or geographic location, market cap, debt exposure Etc. Etc.

red

[modform] 31/10/2016 10:26

Apad.yes. sold WEIR, I wanted to go heavily into resources, as I believed they were on the first stage of bull market, so AAL VED KAZ EXPO GLEN HGM, and some oilers IAE HUR SOU PANR AMER , all from Malcy's list. Stil have some exposure to silver miners in USA and Canada KDX EXN AXR.JOG is too small cap for me, but a good start for you dacian

[redartbmud] 31/10/2016 10:16

My Bt and TW trades are going nowhere for now.
Gsk back to £16.16.
No idea what happens next.

red

[redartbmud] 31/10/2016 10:13

Ror

I completely understand why they are buying up businesses that complement the product range. In the current climate, I can see why owners of unquoted companies might want to realize some of their gains, especially if they are of a mature age.
For now I would hope for a pause in proceedings.
In the past, Ror has been very good at generating cash and it would be good to put some back into the bank. The current yield c 2.50% is hardly undemanding. We have not had a special since 2011!
The trick was to sell around £2.20 and buy back around £2.00 - £2.05.
Maybe next time around

red

[apad] 31/10/2016 09:42

Had a bit of a look at ROR with a view to reconsideration.

Hadn't realised the sheer number and spread of companies. Knew about the model of outsourcing manufacture and assembling in-house. Acquisitions, acquisitions. Mmmm.
Maybe not focussed enough for me. Let's see next rns. However, it has provided some defence from the O&G market.

apad

[apad] 31/10/2016 08:33

Last bought WEIR in March at about 1100, red.
Fairly comfortable with the trend at the moment. mod traded out I believe.
The outgoing CEO gave me confidence. Hopefully he has trained his less articulate successor.
I am more twitchy about ROR - not sure why. Going to dig out the last accounts and read them backwards, as Terry Smith recommends.
apad

ps
PRV in increase range.