UBM Share Discussion Threads

[fickena] 27/2/2003 14:18

LONDON (AFX) - United Business Media PLC, due to report 2002 results on
Friday, is set to show an almost 30 pct decline in profits, reflecting a very
depressed advertising market and slower economic growth.
According to an AFX poll of six brokers, profits before tax and exceptional
items should range from 67-74 mln stg, down from 97 mln last time.
In a trading update in December, covering UBM's second half, the company
said robust trading in Europe, Asia and the UK was offset by tough conditions in
the US.
It also revealed revenue at its US high-tech publishing division CMP Media
has been stable, moving into profit in the fourth quarter, with revenue and
operating profit expected to be in line with expectations at around 45 pct below
the record levels in 2000.
CMP Media is the largest high-tech media group in the US, publishing
Information Week, EE Times, Internet Week and other titles.
The division has been hit especially hard by the recession in advertising as
many internet and technology firms went bust.
UBM also revealed plans to pay a total dividend of 7 pence per share.
In a recent research note JP Morgan highlighted three key issues.
First, the performance and outlook for UBM's market research firm NOP and PR
Newswire given weakness in corporate communication budgets.
Second an increasing pension deficit and thirdly the benefit of a lower cost
for renewing the Channel 5 licence fee.
JP Morgan estimate the company will report an FRS17 pension deficit of some
90 mln stg for the year end 2002.
Since the start of 2003, the UK market has fallen a further 8 pct suggesting
that the total FRS17 deficit could exceed 100 mln today, said the broker.
As a result UBM will need to raise pension contributions again in 2003,
added JP Morgan.
Deutsche, which last week upgraded the stock to hold from sell on valuation
grounds, sees further pressure on revenue in 2003.
Revenue pressure is seen from continued stock market turmoil and client
cost-cutting as well as weakness in healthcare and market research spend.
At PR Newswire, revenues remain under pressure from lower message volumes
and reduced demand for evaluation services like video releases.
The wire has suffered from the decline in M&A and flotation activity,
corporate news, company failures and corporate cost cutting.
Some 1,100 companies, around 20 pct of the addressable market have been
de-listed since 2001.
Shares in UBM traded 7p or 3.4 pct lower at 200p at 1.20pm, in line with
weakness across the UK media sector.
The stock has shed 70 pct over the last 12 months and 30 pct since the year
began, underperforming the media sector.
[e-mail]
tf/kl

[boram] 31/1/2003 14:43

There not doing to well, but they are doing a little bit better than some of there rivals in the same business.

[ddevine] 31/1/2003 11:07

LONDON (AFX) - United Business Media PLC said its US high-tech titles saw
further declines in advertising page volume in December 2002.
The business-to-business information technology market as a whole decreased
by 13.4 pct in advertising page volumes in the month of December compared to
December 2001 and by 52.9 pct compared to December 2000, said UBM.
UBM's US publishing division CMP Media said continuing High Tech
publications recorded an 8.1 pct decrease against December 2001 and 41.3 pct
decline against December 2000.
But the company said market share of CMP Media's continuing titles year to
date was 28.4 pct up from 24.9 pct in the prior year period.
The market as a whole fell by 30.4 pct compared to the year to December
2001 and by 54.7 pct compared to the year to December 2000.
CMP's continuing titles, in the year to December 2002, recorded a 20.4 pct
decrease in advertising page volumes against the year to December 2001 and a
40.7 pct decline against the year to December 2000.
UBM's US-subsidiary CMP Media is the largest high-tech media group in the
US, publishing Information Week, EE Times, Internet Week and other titles.
tf/rn

whoops...

[boram] 15/12/2002 15:35

Wednesday 18th, United Business Media will update on trading in the wake of more fears about the business advertising market.

[zapdos] 29/11/2002 16:38

Shuffle Man,

Sorry, my mistake, should have said 'Instititutions selling', re RNS 26/11.

[the shuffle man] 29/11/2002 10:30

Where do you get your info from on Directors selling, cant find it anywhere

[zapdos] 29/11/2002 08:44

Recent rally,Director selling, time to short again ?

[insider trader.] 07/11/2002 15:57

I see you really know your stuff regarding stock picking, LOL !

Check the date you started your thread.

Next time let me know so I can set a short up! ;@)

[fastbuck] 02/8/2002 18:19

Any one take my advise to sell or go short today? Could have sold them for 308p at 8.15am half an hour after the results, now they are 257p after falling all day.

[fastbuck] 02/8/2002 08:29

Plenty of bear points in the interims ....

Revenues & Profits down on last year. Market challenging etc, no up-turn this year as advertising in their professional medai continues to fall.

Pre everything EPS 8.9p

After charging exceptional items of £14m, Amortisation of £66m & Tax £10m the Loss for period £50.3m

Only positive: margins rise. SELL at £3.00 IMO

INTERIM RESULTS 2002 - SUMMARY PROFIT & LOSS

Six months ended 30 June

2002 2001

£m £m



Turnover - continuing 412.8 489.4

Turnover - discontinued - 1.3

Group Turnover 412.8 490.7

Operating profit - continuing 36.4 59.5

[fastbuck] 21/7/2002 21:18

Went sub-400p this month and now falling fast to sub-300p, charts give no support nor end to declines as do weaknesses in Media companies

Negatives
High tech publishing business is getting worse. Advertising page volumes down 29% compared to year to Apr 2001 & 41% compared to Apr 2000.
Market research & News Distribution businesses show little/no sign of recovery
Continued online business losing £20m p/annun
Further write downs & exceptional charges likely
Little profitability upside until 2004

Positives
Cash on balance sheet off-set by loans & debt
Channel5 stake - admittedly worth less than a year ago due to advertising slump & TMT decline

IMO we are going sub-300p before interims next month and then anywhere between +/- 30%. Short until then.

Any others out there?

[raging bull1] 13/5/2002 12:10

article in the ft today says that ubm are undervalued mainly because of their c5 stake and the fact that the media sector has risen some 15% this year so far and yet ubm has only managed 3% therefore considable upside according to william de broe - but then who believes anlaysts these days anyway/

regards
tim

[raging bull1] 13/5/2002 12:08

what was the cost to ubm in the original instance for the c5 stake? and now with the c5 wars potentially building/hotting up in the next few months what is the likely affect on the share price? i am presuming that murdoch will be the prime bidder and therefore ubm should benefit considerably from this sale thus affecting the price in a northerly direction. afterall this share is hardly for the feint harted. anyone with any views on this matter?

REGARDS
TIM

[honiton] 09/5/2002 17:34

C5

Interesting article in FT.

UBM want @ £500m for their 35% stake in C5. RTL (the major shareholder) have only offered @ £200m.

Watch this space.

[honiton] 21/4/2002 19:01

Does anyone know what the C5 stake is valued at?

C5 seems to be grabing TV market share from the likes of C4 (after all it is ataffed by ex C4 people) and others. All this on a measley programming budget.

I think this may be a hidden asset. But not too sure of the figures involved.

[taximania] 04/4/2002 21:37

Don't know but it's a great short above 600 these days.

[honiton] 04/4/2002 21:35

Is their Chanel 5 stake undervalued?

[honiton] 19/3/2002 00:05

Publishing is coming back into fashion.

[m.t.glass] 18/3/2002 16:03

So is shorting :o)

[m.t.glass] 18/3/2002 11:21

And now falling from a double top? It touched 610p intraday on 4 March, and did the same again this morning -like it just wanted to say goodbye :O)

[siry2k] 18/2/2002 11:29

Approaching UBO levels. I have 545/549 as resistance. I shall be watching with interest. WPP results will no doubt have impact.

[sham3001] 06/2/2002 03:04

This stock is cracking wide open before us. Gravity must ensue. UBM is close to its downtrending 150 day ma which gives it plenty of room to drop. Short term support was just violated. Shorts just under 500p should be well rewarded.




13-2-02 stopped out @ 509p

[blackday] 10/1/2002 19:23

clear sell on strenth. the most worrying aspect is the dividend cut. the sad thing is i bought at 430 a few weeks ago and sold the next day 460. sucker

[zapdos] 10/1/2002 19:15

Nov,

Thanks for the article. I note that whilst market share for CMP was up, their advert volumes were still down considerably.

Didn't get in I'm afraid, as I got distracted by my work this morning ! Definitely going to keep an eye on this one though, around 540-550 seems to be the top.

[novision] 10/1/2002 11:40

Now down to 516p - hope you're in zapdos