Tungsten Share Discussion Threads

[chemistdude] 15/8/2016 13:33

Hi Andrew. I went off the TUNG IR significant holdings page where it said Odey had: 23,194,276

Compared to 23,753,940 in today's RNS.

[manics] 15/8/2016 13:31

Tungsten site (which hasn't yet updated with today's RNS) says:

Odey Asset Management

18,510,599 (14.68%) direct
4,683,677 (3.72%0 cfd
23,194,276 (18.40%) total

¯_(ツ)_/¯

[andrewdbl] 15/8/2016 13:08

CD

My last odey RNS:
21/01/16 says 19,619,992 direct and 4,683,677 CFD
This one
15/08/16 says 19,411,288 direct and 4,342,677 CFD

- I may have missed one in the middle?

[chemistdude] 15/8/2016 11:54

Minor top up by Odey: 500k cfd approx

[garth] 13/8/2016 17:49

bs,

think Ed's were cfds.

G.

[andrewdbl] 12/8/2016 15:35

istr BS got some in the early 30s - a place I was too scared to go to.

[bs76] 12/8/2016 14:50

Yes Manics that was about year back.

but then Odey bought around 6m shares from fidelity around 60p

and Ed bought last week 1.7m around 45p

I suppose now their average must be around 110-115p

[manics] 12/8/2016 14:38

Seem to recall even Edi & Odey are invested at around 145p average -I think bs76 had it calc'd out.

Rick's recent options looking OK, broader staff sit at 67p, and Rick has a good tranche of older options at +200p.

Much to do. Personally I haven't pressed buy since 120p.

[andrewdbl] 12/8/2016 14:15

My original few were bought at 282 09/07/14.
Then a few more around 120, 80, 60, 70 etc
The bulk bought 39-45 being fairly sure the share price was irrationally low, having actually understood exactly that TUNG is.
etc etc who really cares about the detail.

anyway

TL;DR @65p :- OMG Breakeven/Small profit

...This is probably a foreshadowing of the end of civilisation.

[manics] 12/8/2016 14:13

So if this gets to +80p, we would, for the first time ever (I think), be able to say that TUNG sits at a year high...?

Am I right in saying that?!

[dollarzpounds] 11/8/2016 17:54

When will they go away ??!

[bs76] 11/8/2016 17:31

Andrew, that's stock on loan. As per my knowledge the utilization rate is around 60-70% (I checked this with few finance guys in city)

So my guess (approx)

65% of 10.4m = around 6.5m short

-> 1.6m (i.e 1.28%) shorts > 0.5%
-> 4.9m shorts < 0.5%

[andrewdbl] 11/8/2016 17:22

10.48m shares still shorted?

so about 9m held by people under 0.5%

That is a lot.

[bs76] 11/8/2016 17:14

Month end => euro clear lending data => shorts disclosed > 0.50%

Jul-16 10,478,220 1.28
Jun-16 10,727,493 1.38
May-16 10,598,608 1.97
Apr-16 10,045,442 3.27
Mar-16 10,820,130 3.28
Feb-16 10,811,003 3.69
Jan-16 9,132,367 3.89
Dec-15 9,739,576 4.61
Nov-15 9,630,439 5.18
Oct-15 10,489,609 5.67
Sep-15 9,685,504 6.64
Aug-15 11,129,458 6.91
Jul-15 12,026,589 7.31
Jun-15 8,104,761 6.42
May-15 9,198,262 7.02
Apr-15 9,695,587 9.35
Mar-15 8,680,110 9.08
Feb-15 9,350,366 7.32
Jan-15 8,446,668 4.89
Dec-14 6,268,143 1.52
Nov-14 3,686,883 1.42
Oct-14 4,534,569 0.71
Sep-14 3,724,597 0.50
Aug-14 3,485,299
Jul-14 3,582,700
Jun-14 3,527,632
May-14 4,186,689
Apr-14 4,692,580
Mar-14 3,684,464
Feb-14 3,759,932
Jan-14 3,048,439

[bs76] 11/8/2016 17:10

Shorts were reduced on 5th Aug - 1.38 => 1.28

Oxford reduced 0.69 => 0.59
JP still on 0.69 (They haven't changed since 15th March)

[edwardt] 09/8/2016 15:58

tea leaf stuff. if fundamentals improve this goes higher.

[edwardt] 09/8/2016 14:57

err I hope not. unless us shareholders like losing money, we should think any recovery here is nascent.

[andrewdbl] 08/8/2016 18:11

I think

"deliver around £40m of revenue next year"

= 40m for FY ending 30/04/18 if you follow company guidance.

[edwardt] 08/8/2016 14:06

if you send me your email on private message I can ping it over.

[andrewdbl] 08/8/2016 12:34

The reason I ask is

Liberum seem to be saying "deliver around £40m of revenue next year"

when TUNG themselves say "over £30m" as guidance for y/e 30/04/17

It feels like they have been doing the same fantasy maths that I indulge in.

[andrewdbl] 08/8/2016 12:24

ET

Is there any way of seeing this report?

[edwardt] 08/8/2016 08:45

liberum have featured tung in a quarterly stock report. they state 'Selling the loss making bank for £30m would imply a market cap today of £25m for a business forecast to deliver around £40m of revenue next year, growing at 25% per annum.'

they put a 90p target with bank proceeds or 64p ev.