Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 14/8/2015 14:55

If it stays above the bottom of the trend channel line it should get a bounce to test 280p resistance.

[phowdo] 14/8/2015 14:20

May get a bounce at ~200p


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[azalea] 14/8/2015 10:31

If, sanctions are lifted, within circa 6 months 210/215 is not going to hold as Iran cranks up its production to sell.

[topcar] 14/8/2015 10:26

Boots on the ground are saying, major unrest in Saudi !!

[ny boy] 14/8/2015 10:09

Ok if you look for a trade up to 280 resistance level. 210/215p area needs to hold for this possible trade to be on.

[azalea] 14/8/2015 09:36

A temporary bottom, will not be much good if US sanctions are lifted against Iran selling its oil to the West.

[ny boy] 14/8/2015 09:10

Anyone looking for a temporary bottom, there are possibilities here as the share price is approaching the bottom of the down channel trend line. Around 210p ish


All down to whether the crude prices also finds some base, still finding fresh lows every week.

[azalea] 14/8/2015 06:45

Individual petrol outlets for the oil giants are charging customers whatever they can get away with. IF users make a determined effort to boycott these outlets even if it means alternating between top brands - BP, Shell, ESSO and supermarket petrol, high price outlets will be forced to cut their prices. In a 10 mile radius from me, non supermarket petrol prices vary by 5-6p a litre.

[ny boy] 14/8/2015 00:13

Crude dipping below $42 again

[spacedust] 13/8/2015 18:29

Forecourt prices still only few pence cheaper even though wholesale prices have dropped 60%. And pound is not at all time low against dollar so what's the reason now? Ratsmell about

[ny boy] 13/8/2015 16:35

Crude has just broken the key low of the year $42.64

Not good, could break below $40 soon, just far too much supply floating about, need a major hurricane or two to get the price moving north again.

Last time I checked, all was quiet in the Atlantic and around the Gulf.

[spacedust] 13/8/2015 11:00

So crude up, ftse up but oil stocks down for no reason. Ratsmell about

[azalea] 13/8/2015 10:05

The recovery in Asian and European markets despite the third devaluation of the Yuan by the government of PRC, is an encouraging sign. If the reduction improves conditions for exports and indigenous businesses, there could be a pick up in the demand for oil, albeit nowhere near enough to overcome the current glut, which could continue well into 2016. A feature that could be further aggravated if the USA drops it sanctions on Iran selling its oil to Western countries.

[shaggies_view] 13/8/2015 07:23

Looks like the price may have found a floor here around the 215-220p mark. No BUY signals triggered for me yet but we are close.

Shaggy

[olieslim] 12/8/2015 15:58

They might look, but they are on the menu. (See the point I made on Uganda).

Psst, have a look at the share price It wouldn't be down here if they had a choice.

Tick, tock...

[zingaro] 12/8/2015 15:51

I would guess that tallow might look to reduce its stake in Kenya to the same as that in Uganda.

[olieslim] 12/8/2015 15:36

No. They would have to deal AGAIN with the governments who now know what they are sitting on. A suitor would be better of to buy TLW out on standing terms.

That's why Total and CNOOC backed TLW in Uganda. If they hadn't, the game would change. And when TLW would go under as you say (no chance I say) they would get new terms, less favourable as derisked etc.

Now the Kenya decision is significant. Contracts/tenders etc. for a pipeline went out over a year ago. They were all lining up and if I remember correctly decisions on who would do it have already been taken. Now they know what variant/route they can finalise the deals.

Now imagine Total and/or CNOOC having set their mind on TLW. Now Kenya is progressing they could get those assets under their control directly by taking out TLW AND their enlarged stake (material or political) in the pipeline would give them more weight (control) in the (political) process going forward.

Anyway, the company said they would not consider a bid before they knew what they had in Kenya (This was around the time AficaOil did the fundraising). They are testing right now and they/everbody know it's game on.

You bet some are stakebuilding here. Yes, sir.

We'll probably see the non-priority assets dropof/get sold to make it more tasty. And we heard today full year production is on target.

...

If you still don't get it, maybe you should just sell. I hope I can afford to take your shares before not too long.

GL


P.S. While I'm at it, TLW has much goodwill with the Kenyan government. AND the locals/local politicians. It has been a cultural/educational building process in which much effort has been put. A next 'owner' of those assets cannot buy that. Maybe only through TLW, defo not by just picking up the assets. The local politics would jump on the National and everything that has been achieved in the process will be reduced to almost scratch. Nobody can afford that there.

[spacedust] 12/8/2015 09:28

Plugged and abandoned is what the market will only see. It will ignore everything else

[olieslim] 12/8/2015 07:58

Operational update

12 August 2015 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) provides an update on operations across the Group.

Jubilee field production - Ghana
Tullow is pleased to report that following the completion of work on the gas compressor on the FPSO Kwame Nkrumah, gas exports from the Jubilee field have resumed ahead of the mid-August forecast. Gas export restarted on 3 August 2015 and has steadily increased to around 100 mmscfd. Oil production has consequently increased and has now returned to previous rates.

East Africa operational update - Uganda and Kenya
Following a state visit to Uganda by His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, a joint communiqué from both Governments was issued on 10 August 2015 which stated that, "the two Heads of State agreed on the use of the Northern Route i.e. Hoima-Lokichar-Lamu for the development of the crude oil pipeline." Tullow is pleased the governments of Uganda and Kenya have agreed on a route for the regional crude oil export pipeline. This is a major milestone and Tullow looks forward to working with the Governments and partners on development of the significant discovered oil resources in Uganda and Kenya.

Exploration update - Suriname and Norway
In Suriname, the Spari-1 well in offshore Block 31 is currently being plugged and abandoned. Despite the presence of targeted Campanian turbidite sands in the well no significant hydrocarbon shows were encountered. The well was drilled in 52 metres of water to a total depth of 3,830 metres. Tullow has 30% equity in this INPEX operated block.
In Norway, the Salander well in offshore PL 650 found sandstones with good reservoir properties but no hydrocarbons were encountered at this location. The well was drilled in 350 meters of water to a total depth of 2,439 metres and will be plugged and abandoned. Tullow has 25% equity (subject to final government approval) in this E.ON E&P Norge AS operated licence.

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, SAID:
"Tullow continues to make good progress in 2015 having reset the business and with continued emphasis on managing costs, capital expenditure and the balance sheet. We are also focused on operational efficiency and the Jubilee compressor issue has been resolved ahead of schedule. With production back to normal at Jubilee, we expect to meet our full year production guidance. Looking forward, we plan to further deleverage the business as we look at non-core assets and our retained equity in our major developments. The decision by the Governments of Uganda and Kenya with regard to the pipeline route will allow this significant project to move into a new technical and commercial phase."

---------------------------


-With production back to normal at Jubilee, we expect to meet our full year production guidance
-to further deleverage the business as we look at non-core assets and our retained equity in our major developments.
-The decision by the Governments of Uganda and Kenya with regard to the pipeline route will allow this significant project to move into a new technical and commercial phase."

---------------------------

The latter is a significant step closer to a possible forthcoming bid as it is now more or less in their own hands. It also gives their Major partners in Uganda exposure to the Kenyan assets. And possibly explains why they stood by Tullow against the Ugandan government. Imo.

Testing is ongoing.

[bobsidian] 12/8/2015 07:31

In the TLW operational update:

"Looking forward, we plan to further deleverage the business as we look at non-core assets and our retained equity in our major developments."

It will be interesting to see how market forces react to that comment. On the one hand TLW management are aware of the need to deleverage ; on the other TLW management appear to be excluding at this time any need for a capital raising exercise outwith access to its current facilities.

[spacedust] 11/8/2015 20:35

All of a sudden there's too much oil. Few years back there was fear that we are running out of oil rapidly. What a farce....

[azalea] 11/8/2015 18:21

The devaluation of the Yen was a smart move for Japan as it gave a distinct advantage over its ASEAN competitors in terms of exports-especially to the USA. China is now following suit in order to boost its exports. This currency war might even stop the Feds from raising interest rates, as a further strengthening of the dollar could hurt its indigenous exporting industries and jobs.

[buywell3] 11/8/2015 18:08

China has only just started





"U.S. production remains near the highest level in four decades, although the commodity price is telling the U.S. shale sector to shrink, " OPEC said in its report. The higher output is largely due to increased cost efficiencies, lower taxes and existing projects coming on stream, it added. The group said that, for example, in North Dakota, many projects can still be profitable at $24 to $41 a barrel.

OPEC forecasts U.S. output to rise this year by nearly a million barrels a day and another 320,000 barrels a day in 2016.

While many are concerned Tuesday about whether global demand can keep up, the technical aspects of how currencies affect oil prices are likely an even bigger factor in oil's slide, said Hamza Khan, head of commodity strategy at ING Bank in Amsterdam. The dollar's rise in the past year has played a big role in oil's concurrent decline because oil is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies as the greenback appreciates. Oil usually goes down when the dollar goes up. The Wall Street Journal's dollar index recently traded up 0.4% on the day.

"People are thinking that China's currency (decision) could open a currency war, which could make the dollar even stronger," Mr. Khan said.

[shaws67] 11/8/2015 18:07

And will get cheaper, apparently.



FLASH: Investec reiterates sell on Tullow Oil, target raised from 170p to 180p

11 August 2015 | 12:44pm
- See more at: hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/5092850/FLASH-Investec-reiterates-sell-on-Tullow-Oil-target-raised-from-170p-to-180p.html#sthash.VjEjdbLx.dpuf