Tristel Share Discussion Threads

[juuunx2] 26/2/2016 14:54

I agree with APAD and glad I added yesterday far to many negative posters on this board if you don't like the stock xxxxoff and moan somewhere else. Increase in div and profits and very oversold

[mach100] 26/2/2016 14:10

Hi Apad. I don't see many negatives but am happy to hear them. The market likes the buys or sees it is oversold. I think Paul might have been tired as about 33% of the company he has helped to build vanished on paper in two days. It can't be easy to face investors and funds ( by the way they have no preference for one over the other they stated) after the way the market has reacted. But they did and it is strength of character like that gives me extra confidence in the company. The drop is starting to be clawed back and with the froth blown away at least we know where we stand. Those who got out quick on Tuesday can now get more shares than they had on Tuesday for their money. Those that stayed in have a divi to look forward to, a company cash pile to fund it and tempered expectations. A profit warning would whack this. But if this can be avoided we can move on nicely from here. The NHS is a basket case but the company does well overseas and is looking to America so yes I am optimistic.

[tony773] 26/2/2016 14:03

if there was anyway of making a quick quid or 2 it was last night at close of play

[piedro] 26/2/2016 13:41

Xuan Wu Hospital Stella case study
February 2016
Stella reduces capital spend and reprocessing times at Xuan Wu Hospital
Xuan Wu Hospital in Beijing, China was founded in 1958. It is a large Grade 3, Class A hospital providing outpatient services to 4,000 patients every day. ... ...

[hannahh] 26/2/2016 13:19

If you would like to view the webinar from yesterday it is now available at:


Thanks,
The Equity Development team

[murray80] 26/2/2016 10:58

APAD - would you have not felt knackered if your share price had fallen that way against what, I believe, was their expectations?

[apad] 26/2/2016 10:40

Mach.
The amounts are trivial. I made more than they did (other than Soler) - it was so obviously oversold and they needed to say sorry. No brainer.

Do you see any negatives at all in what has just happened?

apad

[mach100] 26/2/2016 10:07

100k of director buys so I think the 'issue' around the options is in fact a non-issue. If they were so minded and believe me plenty of AIM directors are- they need not have dipped into their pocket. I have another company whose directors vested themselves options at 1.25p and 2p and they haven't bought in the market even when the share price was .9p etc. Fair play to those on the board who bought in and are already in profit.

[apad] 26/2/2016 09:54

Great start to the Beddard article:

"Tristel’s share price has dived because it’s not doing as well as managers led credulous investors to believe it would. That isn’t to say it’s doing badly.

Maybe it was the harsh office lighting, maybe it was the gruelling two-day schedule of schmoozing in the City, but my first impression when tuning into Tristel’s interim results webcast on Thursday was that chief executive Paul Swinney and finance director Liz Dixon could do with a good night’s sleep.

Maybe the near 35% drop in the share price on Wednesday kept them awake."

I felt credulous and thought they looked knackered.
apad

[q2u] 26/2/2016 08:43

I also attended the presentation yesterday, for the first time for this company having held for over 3 years.
I think the management played it straight and when challenged about missing the revenue target were at pains to stress that they met, and will meet, their profit target for the full year so did not feel that any sort of warning to the market was justified. I tend to agree with them.
I got the feeling they did not expect the options to vest so early and none of the beneficiaries have sold the resulting shares as they all reckon the share price will be much higher in the future. We can only wait and watch on that one.
As to the next year, talking to Paul Swinney afterwards he agreed it would be something of a year of consolidation while they develop new markets, particularly the USA, but this is essential to continue to grow the company as there are no more easy gains in the UK.
I fully understand what he was saying about the indebted NHS trusts being scared to change in case of even minute increases in costs - I am the treasurer of a charity for the benefit of our local hospital and we can't even get their agreement to spend money to buy them equipment they are so paralysed by their finances.
One point that worried me, particularly in the US, was competition but Paul, while acknowledging that it could appear at any time, did not think that there was anything to challenge them in the medium term that approached their quality and speed of cleaning for their specialist areas.
All in all I was encouraged by their drive and ambition and will continue to hold, adding if they fall below 95p but don't expect much to happen price wise for the next year.

[apad] 26/2/2016 08:30

Highly likely outcome, bolador. That's why I posted the background of the insiders.
I suspect that FDA (or equivalent) approval (submission 2016) will maximise the value of the company.
Good to have views from attendees. However, they were talking up a domestic application and didn't talk about a flattening of NHS demand when they should have.
Safer to have Piedro's viewpoint I think.
Having said that I think the story is intact and that hiccups on the way are to be expected. But I am much twitchier.
apad

[bolador] 26/2/2016 08:17

Reading much of the above it may seem a good idea for this company to seek shelter in a much bigger outfit bearing in mind the upcoming regulatory and development costs in the EU and USA.

[rcturner2] 26/2/2016 07:53

The trouble with the kind of options deal agreed here, is that is leads to perverse incentives. No matter how honest you think someone is, do not present them with an opportunity to act dishonestly. Keep everything above board, clean and simple.

[james188] 25/2/2016 22:14

I attended the presentation this evening, having also attended the AGM last December. If you invest in companies of this sort of size, I believe that you are always placing a lot of trust in the management team and whether they are telling it straight.

I think that the company could (and should) have been much better advised on presentation of results, but I also think that the exec directors play it straight. I understand and respect why people who got in at a fairly low price have cashed out, but the medium to long term investment case for me has not changed. I view this as an opportunity to add. I recall that the exec directors bought in at 145p and 152p back in December. The cynical view would be that they did that to inflate the share price, but I very much doubt that.

[expletive deleted] 25/2/2016 19:38

Just out of the presentation. It hasn't made me regret selling up today, but I can say that I am sure that any suggestions that management manipulated announcements or anything else to cause their options to vest are wide of the mark.

[apad] 25/2/2016 19:19

Francisco Soler, Chairman
(Chairman of Remuneration & Nomination Committees and member of Audit Committee)

Francisco Soler is a founding shareholder of the Group and has been an active investor in a number of companies around the world. Among them, he was a member of the Board of United States Can Company (US Can), a company that was listed on the New York Stock Exchange before being taken private by a private equity Group. He was chairman of Leisure Tennis Limited, the owner of the Harbour Club leisure facility in central London, which was sold to Cannons Group Plc in August 1998 and of Harbour Club Milano which was sold to the Aspria Group in 2009. He is a Knight of the Order of Malta.

Paul Swinney, Chief Executive
(Member of Nomination Committee)

Paul Swinney started his career with Brown, Shipley & Co in 1980. He worked for the European banking operations of Norwest Bank Minneapolis and Maryland National Bank, before joining OSI Finance, a specialist in shipping finance, in 1987. In 1993 he co-founded the business that was to become Tristel Plc. He has been chief executive and a shareholder since inception.

Liz Dixon, Finance Director

Liz Dixon trained with BDO before moving into industry with the Holiday Property Bond Group, where she developed her career ultimately becoming UK finance manager. Having joined Tristel in 2007 as chief Group accountant, Liz went on to join the Board of Tristel Solutions Ltd in August 2009 and was appointed as Group finance director in June 2010.

[pyemckay] 25/2/2016 19:16

maynards notes are pretty good and as an ex holder I wouldnt be in a rush to buy back in.

[amencorner] 25/2/2016 17:42

I have just gone through Maynard Paton’s notes from today’s webinar. Firstly: well done Maynard, an excellent piece of work.

As an ex-holder, would I be buying back now at these prices? Well each to their own but for me it’s a definite no; sadly I am just not impressed with the current situation or the way management have conducted themselves.

Shame really as I was a massive fan of the company: maybe another time?

[stanmore2] 25/2/2016 15:38

Reckon it is worth about 54p

[stanmore2] 25/2/2016 15:37

Reckon it is worth about 54p

[effortless cool] 25/2/2016 15:32

Having done further work on the numbers, I have sold out of TSTL. The key change was my decision to reduce my target PE ratio from 18 to 15, to reflect the more subdued revenue growth profile. This gave me a target price (adjusted for net cash and outstanding options) of 87.4p.

Further, my projections take no account of the following statements in the interims:
- "This additional spend will be material and will be incurred in the second half and also next year". (In respect of US FDA approval applications).
- "To conform to this European legislation, manufacturers of disinfectant products will have to make substantial investments". (In respect of European BPR).

These costs will suppress profits below my projections and, whilst both have jam tomorrow potential, they are, in my opinion, very likely to lead to more shareholder disappointment in the short to medium term.

I remain interested in TSTL, so will still attend the investor meeting later today and maintain my projection model.

Good luck to remaining holders.

[davr0s] 25/2/2016 15:26

I submitted that very question Salchow and it didn't get asked !

[piedro] 25/2/2016 15:14

APAD,
Enjoyed the webcast but have learned to be sparing with the questions.
LOL :-)

As you get to know the executives you will find their statements take on a particular meaning.

Although they make out to be conservative, like children they do tend to get carried away by their expected expectations; that is where the steadying influence of an experienced Chairman is necessary.

Enthusiasm is excellent but it need to be kept within bounds

AIMHO, BWDIK.

[salchow] 25/2/2016 14:47

TMFMayn - no there were no complaints about options at the time but someone on another site was complaining that in previous years the company made reference to turnover at the AGM's held in December and this time they didn't. His argument was that had the reduced rate of increase in turnover been mentioned then the shares would not have remained above 134p and the directors would not have gained their entitlement.

I agree with APAD there is not much incentive for buyers to come in until there is something new to report.