Tristel Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 24/2/2016 20:18

Can anyone explain the share based payments to a thicko like me? Is it a non-cash item? If so why is it going through the accounts and effecting the reported earnings?

[pyemckay] 24/2/2016 20:12

director numeration is ridiculous. this is still way overvalued.

[gdjs100] 24/2/2016 19:33

You need to make sure you are comparing apples with apples - i.e. whether SBPs and/or FDA-related one-off costs are included. The 7.1p ED figure is before both. I am happy to value ex FDA costs but want to include some level of SBPs, so somewhere in the high 6s is the underlying figure I use in my own forecasts/valuation.

[firtashia] 24/2/2016 19:18

So if Paul Scott is to be believed (and I see no reason why not) then FinnCap have reduced fy17 EPS forecasts by 20% to 5.6p. But equity development have left FY17 forecasts unchanged (though admittedly they weren't as extravagant as Finncap's in the first place, 6.1p vs F's 7.1p). How can there be such a disparity? Anyone for a game of "pin the tail on the donkey?".

[rimmy2000] 24/2/2016 19:00

todays low around 107p fills the chart gap on fri 9th oct 15 at 106p and monday 12 oct 15 at 109p. i am not saying this means anything significant, just observing i had noted there was a gap in pricing and that now appears to be filled.

[rcturner2] 24/2/2016 18:44

I would buy back in here, but not at this price. The chart seems to imply that 100p is support and if that goes it is down to 80p. I would probably want to buy in at PE 15 net of cash.

[apad] 24/2/2016 17:19

Increased at approx 110.
apad

[davr0s] 24/2/2016 16:36

Well that was a car crash of a day - no meaningful recovery in the price at all. Damage done now and market tends to overreact so another one for the bottom drawer. Still I get an extra 0.5p divi LOL

[piedro] 24/2/2016 16:09

Finally, I reported this time last year that I would remain in post as Interim Chairman until a successor is found. The Board is delighted to have been joined by David Orr as an independent Non-Executive Director, and we will continue the search for my replacement, but will do so in a deliberate and considered manner.
Francisco Soler
Chairman
24 February 2016

- someone must oversea the return to confdence
- is David Orr being tried out??

[rcturner2] 24/2/2016 15:00

Well a PE of 20 with eps of 5.4p takes you to 108p.

PE 20 is still quite high really given those results.

[dlku] 24/2/2016 14:23

reckon this is heading to 70p

[amencorner] 24/2/2016 14:13

I have had an absolutely brilliant run in TSTL just about doubling my money. My view is that the results were a touch lacklustre with respect to the UK when based against the rather pricey valuation at close of play yesterday.

I do still very much like the company but earlier this morning I sold my holding which in itself can be a bit of a pain with a small cap business with a NMS of 2000 shares. With markets as they are, I will keep a watch from the sidelines; maybe they will drift a touch more who knows? Really nice business in my view but just a little overheated in current market conditions in my opinion. Will keep watching.

[wjccghcc] 24/2/2016 14:01

Why a profit warning? FY forecasts were for 5.4p and they made 2.89p in H1.

[piedro] 24/2/2016 13:54

- Whilst the second half of the year is typically more profitable than the first, with the increased investment in new products and the 510(K) submission we expect a more equal split this year.

- profit warning

[effortless cool] 24/2/2016 13:26

Exactly right RCT. I tried to exit first thing on the results, but could not transact in any significant volume. I'm still reworking my projections, but suspect it is below fair value now, so have not gone back to the market.

[rcturner2] 24/2/2016 13:10

Trouble was it was very fully valued before and those results did not justify such a high rating.

[mach100] 24/2/2016 13:05

Some IC investors bailing out on their "take profits" advice probably accounts for the surge in sales mid morning. I suppose after a good run up it is not surprising to see a retrace. The extent of it surprises me and I am kicking myself for not top-slicing this morning. Ouch

[juuunx2] 24/2/2016 12:49

Profit rises and dividend rises nowt to worry about here. Growth gonna come from other areas so what? That's diversification isn't it? I'm gonna add.

[eeza] 24/2/2016 12:45

100 looks the obvious support on the chart - if this level doesn't hold.
FTSE not helping.

[mach100] 24/2/2016 12:37

Sales are accelerating now which is disappointing. Thought we had weathered the worst but looks like the herd are heading for the exit. After a good run, no surprise to see growth slow and too much blame can't be attached to the management. The fall hass gone from bad to very bad.

[davr0s] 24/2/2016 12:25

Getting crushed today - assume the presentations didn't go down well. Going to keep holding this one

[boros10] 24/2/2016 11:03

Good posts Salchow and Apad.The statement that the H1 and H2 split will be more even this year rather than the typically stronger weighting to H2, points to continuing problems in the UK market. I am disappointed that management did not see the slow down in the UK coming. Poor revenue/earnings visibility and a demanding P/E don't make for great bed fellows. Good to see the share price come off today as the market was clearly over valuing Tristel's short to medium term growth prospects but today's news may prove to be a hiccup in the affairs of the company and a buying opportunity in the long term.

[apad] 24/2/2016 10:16

Well put salchow.
Also the Equity Development sheet is well presented. I've been sniffy about them in the past, but undeservedly I think. I'm not sure Ecolab is a competitor to a different technology, but it clearly has a big footprint in the US.
Costs and uncertainties associated with y'oodle approval are an unknown.
I last increased in the recent drop at 120p. It would be good to see them dropping below this and a period of protracted, off the radar, softness would be very nice.
apad

[salchow] 24/2/2016 09:44

This could be a great long term holding but the question is what is it worth now.

Interim dividend of 1.14p is stated to be expected to be 40% of total for year so that would make this years dividend 2.85p. That is a yield at the price yesterday of 145p of 1.96%. That is alright but they are distributing 50% of profits so that implies profits of 5.7p per share (before share transactional deductions). This fits in with the 2.89p profits for the half year and the comment that this year profits will be more equal in both periods. If we assume profits will be slightly more at 6p per share for the year then this is a return of only 4.13% on the 145p price.

So my conclusion is that good growth was already priced in at 145p and I can understand it not going up this morning particularly in view of the overall market conditions but if it starts getting tipped who knows.

[hannahh] 24/2/2016 09:29

Just a reminder that if you would like to hear Paul Swinney, Chief Executive and Liz Dixon, Finance Director present Tristel's interim results and have the opportunity to ask them questions please register here:

The webinar will be tomorrow at 1.15pm.

Thanks,
The Equity Development team