Tp Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 29/12/2016 23:13

Agree chart points to 10p short term target

[pavey ark] 29/12/2016 20:32

Septblues, I don't follow your argument (observation) here.

I have shown that I am anticipating a EBITDA of £3.5m next year and year end cash balance of £10m.

IF the share price is 9.86p and 421m shares in issue we get a Market Cap of £41.5m

Taking the £10m cash out we get an EV of £31.5m

EV/EBITDA = 31.5/3.5 = 9

The starting point of my 50% compounding,as I clearly stated in a previous post, was to take the AVERAGE price for a WHOLE YEAR and apply it to the mid point of that twelve month period i.e. January 2016.
The actual price at the start of the year was considerably less than this average but I certainly though it was wrong to take such a low figure and base serious projections on just one low figure.
I notice that this one off low tactic was employed by our resident nutter when he tried to point out what a great investor he was and how well his chosen company had done (at that particular point in time).

Investors in TPG , or indeed any company,are only interested in the price THEY paid and the prospects the company has for improving that share price.
I'm quite sure that there are any number of investors who were nowhere near this company when funds were raised at 10p and higher.(I'm certainly one)
I repeatedly pointed out the value to be had here especially during the long period when the share price was ridiculously low and anyone buying during that period is sitting on a very nice profit.(again,me).

Given the defence contract, order book, contacts and cash together with the prospects of rapidly rising profits I still consider this to be a very good buy.

[ileeman] 29/12/2016 20:22

I stayed in PEG for weeks.

I mainly buy on technical analysis, if the chart does what I want then I stay in for the target, if it fails then I sell. Not hard to understand.

[tiltonboy] 29/12/2016 19:07

iLeeman,

You didn't stay in PEG very long...how long before you are out of this one!

[ileeman] 29/12/2016 18:24

Bought quite a few today.

Cup and handle pattern about to break major resistance above 6.5p-6.75p by the looks of it.

10p target.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[the prophet] 29/12/2016 18:11

At this rate the shares might get back to Cartmell's lowest placing level? Think that was 10p. Must be bonus time again if the clever ol' fella can manage that!
Market forecasts consensus is still for 0.15p eps, but I guess brokers are waiting for the January update before scribbling a new note, but least in advance of that we have PA's forecast, or should i say 'ESTIMATE'!

Love this compounding thing btw, it's great, start off with a figure that is the lowest in the group's entire history, add a few pence and voila, compound growth, lovely! Soon be up to PA's average.

Happy New Year folks.

[septblues] 29/12/2016 17:55

Pavey

"The industry wide standard multiple is c. 9.6 but I'm only going for 9".......doesn't factor in the growth %ages you're projecting. If you put the % growth you're anticipating into the standard PE formulae, you come up with a higher PE than 9.6.

[pavey ark] 29/12/2016 17:46

Rather than play "pin the tail on the donkey" I think I can offer a rather reasonable estimate of where the share price is going (with actual figures !!)

As some of you will know I have been predicting a 50% compound increase here for this year and a good few years to come but as my year end target was 5.5p I'm afraid I must apologise as it looks like ending the year at c. 6.5p.

So let's see if we can go from 6.5p to 9.75p by this time next year ?

We all know that the purchase of the submarine business for under £10m was the deal of the decade but even taking this into consideration the estimated EBITDA of £3.7m this year (possibly more)is rather excellent.
This business has been increasing profit by very health amounts each year since purchase and the two MoD contracts and many more are heading its way but I will be rather prudent and take a 10% rise next year to £4.1m.

What most have not realised or refused to acknowledge is that the real hidden driver in this share wasn't just the rise in profit from the submarine business but it was also the dramatic fall in losses from the compressor unit.
In the Sharewatch interview Cartmell said that the losses from this unit will fall to c.£500k next year.

The MS unit should produce c. £300k/£400k profit this year and the management is looking for big things in the future but ,prudent old me, I'm just going to pencil in £500k next year.

TP Engineering is going from strength to strength under its new management and now "Fit for Nuclear" it's picking up orders at an increasing rate but to get my figure to work I only need put in £500k profit next year.

Add all that up and you get an EBITDA of £4.6m less central costs is £3.5m

The industry wide standard multiple is c. 9.6 but I'm only going for 9.

9 x 3.5 + cash ( should be close to £8m at the start of the year and closer to £10m at the end of 2017)

9 x 3.5 + 10 = 9.86 p / share

As you must be aware, these figures are ESTIMATES but do show where the company is going and although ESTIMATES I don't think anyone could describe them as wild estimates.

(truth be known I expect the company to do even better than the figures above but I'm prepared to go with these for the time being)

[cottoner] 29/12/2016 16:55

Current MCAP is c£27.5m

However this includes:

At June 30 2016 - cash balance of £7.5m

and at recent TU

the Group's year-end cash position is also likely to exceed expectations.


As well as the TU headline news:

FY16 EBITDA likely to significantly exceed current market expectations with FY17 materially ahead of current market expectations.

They must have concrete evidence of a big rise in revenue going forward to already state that FY17 will be materially ahead.

[septblues] 29/12/2016 16:35

timo - are you saying 12-13p by mid year? that would be a market cap of say £50m on sales of £25m according to broker forecasts.

If so what multiple of sales would you see valuation being? are you suggesting TPG could be rerated to a high growth tech company? Many high growth tech companies are valued at say 20X sales but I don't see TPG in that league.

[timojelly] 29/12/2016 14:35

Won't be long by the look of it.

[timojelly] 29/12/2016 14:08

6.5p bid and we are off!

[timojelly] 29/12/2016 14:07

And I'm not embarrassed to say, with the whole world getting a bit twitchy our marine division is in prime position for additional Submarine contracts and associated follow on business. Black and white imo.

[timojelly] 29/12/2016 14:03

100% in this between now and mid 2017. Plenty of possible news out there not too mention an earnings enhancing acquisition or two. Loaded with cash and moving into profit. The only way is up baby!

[nw99] 29/12/2016 11:07

Understood

[tiltonboy] 29/12/2016 11:02

I was talking about breaking out of this range. It has had a few goes at this level, but has fallen back from it.

[nw99] 29/12/2016 10:58

Tilton they are moving it already up

[tiltonboy] 29/12/2016 10:56

nw99,

The buyers are not large enough to move the price at the moment. At least we are making higher base levels ahead of a move upwards.

[nw99] 29/12/2016 10:53

The Company expects to make a further update in January 2017 and to announce audited results for the year ending 31 December 2016 in April 2017.

[nw99] 29/12/2016 10:51

Looks like there are plenty of buyers around above 6

[tiltonboy] 29/12/2016 10:47

Looks like there is still plenty of stock around above 6p.

[timojelly] 29/12/2016 10:41

Big move this

[nw99] 29/12/2016 10:37

Would imagine buyers ahead of possible news update in Jan