Tp Share Discussion Threads

[molatovkid] 02/1/2017 10:56

A dividend paid out of strong profits is one thing....a dividend propped up with cash is another.

[timojelly] 31/12/2016 15:11

Don't think a growing company of TPGs size should be throwing out a dividend just yet.

[pavey ark] 31/12/2016 14:50

Yes,a special dividend would be nice but it always looks like management can't come up with a better use for the cash and not sure how the institutional investors would take to it with regards to their tax position.( I would certainly be pleased with it as would most PIs)

Regardless of how they intend to use the (growing) cash pile I think a few words about their intention to start dividend payments in the future would go down really well.

With a market cap of say £30m a 3% yield would cost £0.9m so well within their reach and dividend payments,especially a maiden payment, really puts down a marker.

[chorister] 31/12/2016 14:32

With the capital reorganisation they have given themselves flexibility either to pay a special dividend or to instigate a share buyback programme. That doesn't mean they will do either, but either is now certainly possible, especially if they don't find suitable bolt on acquisitions.

[pavey ark] 31/12/2016 14:24

The cash position is a bit strange.
Since a rather unfortunate and expensive venture into the world of a small (indebted) oil company I have only invested in companies with a solid cash reserve but this could be getting a bit silly here.
There is every chance that the cash pile could reach £10m next year and although we all hope (expect ?) the market cap to rise it is not that efficient to have quite such a large amount of cash on the books.
Management have said that they are unlikely to go for a large acquisition so a £2m/£3m bolt on looks to be their likely option.
As far as being earnings enhancing I think that will be a given as the market seldom gives proper value to cash.
In the year long slump to an astonishingly low share price I repeatedly pointed out that the cash level made the share price a nonsense.
At one point this company, with the submarine business, was still almost 60% cash !!!
For this reason I would like to see a bolt on to the engineering unit or the MS unit but to be fair a large amount of management time is going into these units even without an additional purchase.

I think that this management team is very good at what they do and it looks to me that they will have the business for the new add on BEFORE they buy rather than going at it from the other direction.

[the prophet] 31/12/2016 14:17

Cheers timojelly

[timojelly] 31/12/2016 13:19

Nice to see you've come around to Paveys thinking TP. Got there in the end.

[glennborthwick] 31/12/2016 11:02

on my watchlist

[tiltonboy] 31/12/2016 10:59

Throw in an earnings enhancing deal, and I think it's plausible they could go even higher given decent markets.

[the prophet] 31/12/2016 10:07

Yes, shaping up to be an exciting year.
Going off PA's £2.5m 'normalised' forecast, that works out, on my reckoning, around 0.6p eps, which is the sort of figure I suggested the forecasts needed to be to get into 'interesting' territory and PA has duly obliged, lovely stuff.
Working on PA's suggested p/e of 15 for this stage in a recovery company's cycle then that gives a target share price of 9p, seems mean not to round that up to 10p, which is just above PA's 'compounded' figure, all looking good.
Good news to put this forecast thing to bed once and for all.
Happy New Year to all.

[the prophet] 30/12/2016 18:38

Excellent post PA, delighted to read we can bin those pesky market forecasts and stick with yours, it's so much better that way.You've repeated the forecast so often it almost feels 'official'.Might be worth a quick note to your mates at TPG and ask them to dispense with forecasting services from now on, seems a waste of money! I know they've got plenty but every little bit helps eh?Do let us know when you've 'upgraded', we need the latest on this thread.Almost feels like 'free money', happy days and all that. Double figures beckons and after 7 or is it 8 years, that is something old PC can be proud of. Feel a trip to the bunting shop coming on, I've seen the light!

[timojelly] 30/12/2016 18:05

Good luck to us Pavey, looking forward too it.

[timojelly] 30/12/2016 11:34

Look at the chart for the past year. Newcomers rewarded, old hats recouping. Being an old hat i am definitely much happier near 7p than sub 3p. The company has changed thank God. Join in and hitch a ride or continue to miss out. Cest la ve

[nw99] 30/12/2016 11:08

Who cares what people paid , the key is where this co is going and that's up

[the prophet] 30/12/2016 11:03

yes, you pointed out how you had averaged down to 7p or whatever.....
I can't be bothered to look up your old posts, but I'm sure they are all 100% correct in what you say, just like the 'I NEVER post on shares I don't own' thing eh?
Well and truly caught out on that one! But let's just say that that was just a little 'slip' and , apart from that one, it's all accurate reporting on your part.....

[pavey ark] 30/12/2016 10:57

You really are slow ( me being polite).
People only care about the price they bought and I pointed out repeatedly what a bargain was to be had ( still available)
I thought you would come back to my buying price so I did your old trick of looking up old posts.
Below is not an exhaustive list as I got bored but it gives some idea of my buying pattern and also an indication of my buying price.
I not only bought a sustantion portion of my holding at a very low price but I have a very large number of these shares.
Post 130, 184,193,195,198,216 ( last one from memory only)

[nw99] 30/12/2016 10:53

Pavey agree so many exciting contracts in the pipeline this is just the start

[the prophet] 30/12/2016 10:44

whether the prospective p/e is 200 or 40 or whatever is absolutely nothing to do with me, it's a mechanical figure arrived at by taking market forecasts as in normalised eps and dividing that into the share price Useful 'hint' for some.

yes, we all know there are plenty of ways to value a company, dividend, cash flow, rising eps , m.cap/sales ratio, the list goes on.Best ignore normalised eps, until it suits, ofcourse. Mind you, the others are hardly anything to write home about, but taking the buoyant trading update into account I'm expecting that to change significantly.

What will be interesting is to look at the revised forecasts for 2017 and 2018 and see if Cartmell has been able to turn this mish mash of bits that he has constructed into something that can achieve a reasonable level of profits. By that time would be coming up to 10 long years under Cartmell's tenure, longer turn round than the QE2 complete with shareholder destruction on a significant scale.Deal of the decade? Possibly, for the bod, on the gravy train and lapping it up for the last umpteen years. Did anyone say 'bonus time' again?!
Of course, if your 'average' was 7p, or was it 5p, or 3p, oh, just fill yer own price in, then perhaps not too bad

[pavey ark] 30/12/2016 10:22

Yes these contracts are a big deal but they are different and it's the larger one that interests me more.

"a sole source contract to TPG Maritime, a wholly owned subsidiary of TP Group, for an asset availability service contract relating to Submarine Air Purification."

Having supplied a number of units to the navy and the second contract is for supplying more over the next 8 years the navy is now securing the maintenance and upkeep of these units to the tune of £4m a year.
We had an almost stop gap one year contract put in place at the start of this year but that was for £1.5m this year so £4m/year is a big step up.
Each new submarine has a life of 20/25 years and requires regular maintenance.
Talk about long term contracts !!

A great deal has been made about the 9% (Jan 2016: reviewed Jan 2017)profit margins on these contracts but TPG is the SOLE SUPPLIER to almost every nation outside China ,Russia and USA so if the MoD want to secure this long term support I would imagine they are not in a position to look all that closely at how the 9% is arrived at.

Cartmell hinted at this in the Sharewatch interview when he said the profit margin on export orders are much greater ( how much of the base cost will be covered by the MoD contracts ?)
The recent currency effect has yet to be factored in and is certainly in any exporters favour.

[nw99] 30/12/2016 09:34

The big excitement for me is In June, TP announced that it was in discussions with the MoD for two very large orders to extend an existing contract for new and upgraded COGS systems for UK boats, effective from 2017. The two contracts, which run for 7-8 years, are valued at £50.4m over their lifetime.

[nw99] 30/12/2016 09:31

Improvement from Four divisionsTP now reports under four divisions with sales of c.£20.5m this year expected to be split as follows:• TP Maritine (£11m);• Engineering (£7m);• Managed Solutions (£1.5m);• Design & Technology (£1m).This does not include recent contract wins so these need updating

[nw99] 30/12/2016 08:51

The reason for owning TPG is the prospective new biz wins and the complete transformation of the co.A complex story for sure but mooted acquisitions, a £7.5m cash pile and a ballooning order book could dramatically ensure the present forecasts are left behind and turn TP into a rags to riches story.

[pavey ark] 30/12/2016 08:38

A couple of general if not random points this morning.
I don't imagine there are many of you who would be prepared to make such a fool of themselves as to declare that the main (only?) point you look for in a share is the bottom line EPS, PE ratio.
If I did this I would expect any number of people to point out that share A has almost 30% cash and share B has no cash or even worse share C has 40% debt.
There is also the sales to EV ratio to be considered, the pension commitments, whither sales and profit are rising or falling and many other factors.
I know about these things, you know about these things, so perhaps others may eventually catch up but not so sure that will happen.

Edit: just to help the "slow" boy at the back of the class my 2017 EBITDA figure of £3.5m (unchallenged in any meaningful way by him) translates to a profit of c. £2.5m and any company at this stage in its recovery cycle would command a PE ratio of 15 (or 9p a share).

I don't really bother with PE ratio for the reasons given but I think the strange one was quoting a PE of 200 or so for 2017 not very long ago ....ah well !!.... time will tell but right now I know which one is looking favourite !