Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 14/12/2016 09:56

yes, it's good news, what I would say is they needed to be 'materially ahead' to justify the current market cap.
Let's see what the market forecasts, when revised, come in at and whether they are appropriate for an engineering co currently on a market cap of c.£25m.

[pavey ark] 14/12/2016 09:51

Well as most of you already know, there's no shortage of strange people out there.
Back to reality though: as the earlier "prediction"was for c. £1m EBITDA this year it is reasonable to suggest that the actual figure will be "significantly " above this so after exceptional costs and D A we have a profit on the very bottom line.
Please note that this is a profit AFTER the compressor business sucked another £1m out of the business.

Next year: the Edison prediction was for £1.9m but I had always looked for at least £3m and now in the best tradition of these things I am going to upgrade my estimate to £4m.

I would like to see the final results for this year especially the MS and TPG engineering units as this is where management appears to be focused(and things look good)
It may surprise some but the compressor business is the main driver for my upgrade simply because the losses have distorted the results from the rest of the business for years.
The losses from this unit have come down year on year £2.2m,£1.6m £1.0m(e) to a predicted loss of £0.5m (2017).
Edit:(Losses higher than this ,these were from memory but you get the picture )
I can now see the profit of the engineering and MS units producing a combined profit well in excess of the predicted loss of the compressor business.
When this profit is added to the TPG maritime profit we are certainly off to the races.

Using the industry standard valuation ratios an EBITDA of £4m would easily support a share price of 11.5p

Edit: even £3m would support 9p ( £3m X 9.6 + £9m cash)/ 421m shares)

[tiltonboy] 14/12/2016 09:37

Given this news, hopefully TPG can now enter a new trading range of 6-8p, but "stale" stock continues to find it's way back into the market, which may challenge that.

[itchycrack] 14/12/2016 09:33

Now that's the kind of trading update I like! Get buying! :-)

[kiwihope] 14/12/2016 09:21

This is good news, how good we will have to wait until results...

[rock star] 14/12/2016 09:03

Just been looking at the update from Cenkos following today's announcement. They expect a loss of 500k this year( i.e. break even before the fat cats) and a 900k profit for next year. No figures for 2018.

[rock star] 14/12/2016 08:27

If the 2 exec Directors didn't pay themselves over £550k I might of considered buying some shares. Pass.

[napoleon 14th] 14/12/2016 08:27

The Prophet:- I sold SRT & bought TPG & it appears that move was "materialy ahead" of your prophecy about this share........
Maybe all the jam SRT come up with will make you happy but you can't have it today! No, you'll have to wait, as usual! I don't have any ill feeling for SRT or Simon Tucker - lovely chap & tries his damnedest & I wish him every success, but my money is now here & it is staying here.
ATB with your "prophecies", M8!

[paulgo] 14/12/2016 08:04

They are all busy buying.

[wooster4] 14/12/2016 07:55

some are strangely silent this morning.

[timojelly] 14/12/2016 07:32

Will Pavey seriously rub this in or let it go? Mmm.

[timojelly] 14/12/2016 07:18

Just wait until sharewatch, Cenkos and the rest get hear of this. Double figures are just around the corner.

[nw99] 14/12/2016 07:10

Re rating on the cards

[timojelly] 14/12/2016 07:08

End of that debate

[timojelly] 14/12/2016 07:08

Keeeerrrrrrrrrching!

[nw99] 14/12/2016 07:03

The TP Group Board is pleased to announce that the business performance in FY16, in terms of EBITDA, is likely to significantly exceed current market expectations. In addition, subject to the receipt of expected payments, the Group's year-end cash position is also likely to exceed expectations. The Company expects to make a further update in January 2017 and to announce audited results for the year ending 31 December 2016 in April 2017

[the prophet] 10/12/2016 18:52

quick factual post regarding forecasts:

Cenkos, the latest forecast is dated 13th September. The forecasts have NOT been updated frequently.
For 2017 the current Cenkos forecast is for £0.7m pbt, marginally less than the Edison forecast of £0.8m pbt.

As with all forecasts, they can get upgraded or downgraded as events happen. But there we are, that is the current state of play.
Hard to see what all the fuss is about.

[timojelly] 09/12/2016 13:56

Yes ricardo, glad you deleted that.

[wooster4] 09/12/2016 13:47

Dare i say it for risk of being accused of being a blatant ramper but the chart is looking rather good. Buys at full ask as well.

[pavey ark] 09/12/2016 11:27

After my rather lengthy and factual post that is the very best you can come up with.
I hope you realise you are sliding over that fine line between odd (strange?) and weird.


Anyway, back in the real world of real investors and real shareholders I notice that Edison 18/12/2015 upgraded their 2015 forecast from -£0.5m to break even and their 2016 from +£0.3m to £0.7m ( all EBITDA figures)they even got the year end cash wrong with £6m estimate compared to £7m actual.
I doubt if any sane and sensible person would conclude that Edison were simply paid stooges being spoon-fed by the company management.
They keep their distance ( company policy) and are conservative.

Enough of this I collect the supreme commander from the train soon and if this place isn't tidy there will be bother !!

[the prophet] 09/12/2016 10:09

they don't point out it is 'very low', they say 'moderately conservative'!
Mr Ramper at it again!

[timojelly] 09/12/2016 08:42

Single figures will be blown out of the water next year IMO.

[pavey ark] 09/12/2016 08:37

Although I disagree with the long range forecasts from Edison it is worth noting that they are predicting a share valuation of 6.5p for next year end ( up 30% from here) but I am predicting 7.9p ( up 58% from here).
My 50% compound figures are based on 3.5p average ( 7/2015 to 7/2016) with the mid point of Jan 2016.
So 3.5p, 5.25p, 7.9p, 12p........

The calculation used by Edison and myself is ( EBITDA X 9.6 ) + (-)cash/shares in issue.
(Edit: I changed the equation to exactly match the one I use.)
The 9.6 figure comes from the average of 21 similar companies.(Edison Research)

The Edison forecast was first postulated eight months ago using 2015 figures.
The previous long rang forecast was for 2016 and that was for a £0.7m loss they have had to cut that by a very substantial amount to £0.2m but held the old estimate past the September result and did not alter their forecasts until well into December.

These guys are ultra cautious and conservative but even their figures give a share price of 6.5p for next year and a market valuation of the various units of 8.5p ( they do point out that the second figure is very low ).

But we are where we are and given the news we have received over the last few months I am very happy with the way things are going.