Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 18:26

Wooster
not strange at all, I comment as I see fit. I think 'deal of the decade' at least deserved an examination, although still not quite sure if PA is taking the Michael on that one!
You don't have to own a share to have a valid opinion on it, indeed it can sometimes be better that way, confirmation bias and all that.
When I have something to say on SRT, I will comment on there, I hope that won't be too long.

[wooster4] 06/12/2016 18:17

the prophet - just seems rather strange that you focus a great deal here on a share that you don't own rather than SRT, which you apparently do.

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 18:15

ps to timojelly

re 'look where we are now'

last time I looked it was 5p and 422m shares in issue, or have I missed something?.....

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 18:14

timojelly
Happy Christmas to you as well.

Of course, you are perfectly entitled to stick your head in the sand, but facts are facts, even if unpalatable.
if facts upset, use the filter button.

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 18:11

And a merry Christmas to you too Tp, profitable investing to you all.

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 18:09

Jeeeeeezus christ! How big is that post! Spotted 'Phil' then moved along. Ho hum, enjoy your rant TP. Happy Christmas to all. I'm off (until another contract comes along).

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 18:08

Wooster, folks are entitled to be as optimistic as they like, absolutely no problems here. Gawd knows TPG investors need some good cheer after the ride they've had here for the last umpteen years.

The market is the ultimate judge of 'optimism' and today, on the back of a contract that would seem to bring about significant increased expenditure, the market is neutral. I think that's a result!Break out the champers!

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 18:07

No pleasing some Wooster! But I have money here, happy to hold. Bod ain't gonna make me a millionaire but I like what they are doing. We were inches from going down the pan with our Dgc (still under the dustsheet , tech and lessons learned now being utilised ), look where we are now.

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 18:02

methinks dear old Pavey must be suffering from water on the brain up in the Lakes or altitude sickness from running up them fells!
I bet he didn't laugh louder than I did on reading 'deal of the decade'. Wow, that is some statement, even from delusional PA!!!

OK, lets just examine the facts and the reader can decide if this indeed was the 'deal of the decade' and also how the 'deal' has fared under TPG's stewardship.

First thing to say the two businesses have had more name changes that any business should have to bear! Wish I was their re-branding guy, would have made a fortune!

We've had Wellman Defence, Atmosphere Control Int, now TPG Maritime, but it's all the same stuff, a niche business of sticking air purification systems into subs.

Ok, the acquisitions were announced on 15th march 2012. The day before TPG's share price was10.5p and the number of shares in issue was 247m. The share price had already been falling for several years under Cartmell's tenure.So that was a market cap of £26m
Fast forward to today,some 4.5 years on, a share price of 5p and 422m shares in issue for a market cap of £21m. Hmmm, share price halved, bunch more shares issued.
Don't look like the 'deal of the decade' for shareholders. Perhaps it's just that the market has not recognised the intrinsic value of these gems?

Well, have a look at the financial record before and after TPG's control.

Before:

TPG Maritime t/o £10.4m with an EBITDA of £2.4m for year to end Dec 2011
TPG Engineering t/o £9.4m with an EBITDA of £0.6m for year to end Dec 2011.

After:
Needless to say in the subsequent 4 years the performance has not hit the heights of the year before TPG's purchase and the record has been patchy, to say the least.

The forecasts for this year do offer a glimmer of hope, as TPG Maritime is down to make £3.7m EBITDA, but, unfortunately, TPG Engineering is expected to weigh in with a £0.8m loss. That gives a combined EBITDA for these two businesses of £2.9m, which is £0.1m less than the year before TPG took control!

It hardly looks the 'deal of the decade', although PA is surely having one of his laughs with that one.
Shareholders have not seen the benefit of this 'deal of the decade', all they've seen since the acquisition is a share price that's halved and almost double the amount of shares in issue. Same old same old.

So who has benefited from this deal?......You've guessed it, good old Phil. Not only did he trouser a 'very nice thank you very much' £250K bonus in 2012, for the 'deal of the decade', the deal has been able to keep him and his 'supportive' bod in gravy ever since. You wouldn't have been able to do that on the failed DGC business, so good job Phil spotted the 'lifeboat' and ploughed investors and institutions money into it. It's worked a treat.....'deal of the decade', perhaps it is after all!

[wooster4] 06/12/2016 17:58

timojelly - can you please stop being so optimistic...it won't please the prophet!!

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 17:40

Fingers in all the pies and still a sh1t load of exciting opportunities /contracts around the corner. What's not to like. (rhetorical question).

[pavey ark] 06/12/2016 16:06

Back in the land of the becks and fells and just in from a long trek over the Langdales.
A bit misty and damp but an enjoyable day brightened by the new of the is major and VERY significant contract win.
My good humour even extended to actually laughing out loud when I read some of the posts today .

This contract fits exactly what Simon Kings said the company would do and it looks like the engineering unit is certainly on the up.

This engineering unit was put together for less than £2m made "fit for nuclear" and now certainly off and running.
The heat exchanger business came as an add on from the deal of the decade when the defence business was bought, say £1m, and then they added SSM for c.£900k
Now this looks like very good business to me and one that ties in very nicely with the other units of the company.

[tiltonboy] 06/12/2016 15:52

The last time they went on a hiring spree the staff were gone within a couple of years!

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 15:37

Long term opportunities there.

[nw99] 06/12/2016 15:36

Great news

[bullster] 06/12/2016 14:58

Production Engineer
Quality Engineer
Project Manager



P/E

Responsibilities will include:

Planning manufacturing processes including production routes, bills of materials, tooling requirements, CNC programs and standard operating procedures.
Preparing and updating MITPs (manufacturing, inspection and test plans) for company products and projects.
Managing the introduction and execution of manufacturing special processes.
Advising on machining, assembly and other manufacturing trials to ensure that all methods of manufacture meet the customer specifications and the latest industry standards.
Undertaking root cause analysis and making recommendations on remedial actions.
Providing technical support on the introduction of new equipment and technology.
Advising, assisting and liaison on technical issues with internal and external contacts at all levels, including production staff, customers and suppliers.
Assisting with staff training on relevant technical areas.

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 14:30

it's quite interesting to look at the TPG Engineering Division.

the interim results were a t/o of £2.7m with an EBITDA loss of £0.6m
The second half is forecast to be better, t/o of £4.8m, with an EBITDA loss of £0.2m

So, for the year 16/17, the division is forecast to t/o £7.5m, with an EBITDA loss of £0.8m. That loss is before central overhead costs, btw.

Clearly this division has suffered with the oil and gas down-turn and it would seem a very reasonable idea to diversify into sectors like nuclear, re todays news. But the question is at what cost, given the news of further investment in Duckinfield and more engineers/technicians to cope with what is a pretty small contract.

I think this is part of TPG's overall problem, you've got a bunch of disparate businesses with no real synergy coupled with government type contracts for the Air Division giving rise to margin constraints and the usual lengthy delays that go to do with anything government related. To get these different bits and bobs all pulling in the same direction at the same time is a tricky task, but one that the bod have bought on themselves by buying such businesses.Still, I guess that was the reason they were for sale in the first place!

[cerrito] 06/12/2016 14:10

That was my reading as well The Prophet and my understanding is that engineers are on short supply in NW England... pleased they got the business but not enough to increase my holding.

[the prophet] 06/12/2016 13:57

I would be concerned if I was a holder here that TPG are upgrading Duckinfield and taking on engineers and technicians to deliver on a contract worth £750k/yr for just two years.Doesn't sound like there will be much profit in this contract after those expenses.To be fair, the investment should mean TPG are able to service additional contracts.Let's see if forecasts get upgraded on the back of these recent contracts or if they are already 'built in'. I suspect the forecasts have already factored in much of these deals. We will see in due course.

[kiwihope] 06/12/2016 12:35

timojelly,

Whilst prospects are certainly looking quite good, at the end of the day the company is valued at £21M and is not yet profitable. So the good prospects are already priced in. Patience is needed. Once profits start flowing the price will respond accordingly.

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 12:14

I'll say no more, what more proof do you need. Happy holder.

[siofers93] 06/12/2016 11:33

Another contract :)

[tiltonboy] 06/12/2016 09:46

...perhaps you need to give some credit to The Prophet who has read the situation better than most!

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 09:33

Why are we still sat at this ridiculous price? ..... Sorry, here he comes....