Tp Share Discussion Threads

[timojelly] 06/12/2016 09:33

Why are we still sat at this ridiculous price? ..... Sorry, here he comes....

[swiss paul] 05/12/2016 19:38

Yep - certainly was - and still will be - I think I gave BNN a kicking - to much froth.
As I said sometimes you need to get a sense of reality and not look to much at the spin. A lot of people dot realise how much the NOMADS place a positive spin on things.

Have a look ta this for a realistic view



All the best and DYOR

[supernumerary] 03/12/2016 10:43

tilton - true, but you can have more than two 50% falls in your share price (in some cases, many more)!

swiss paul - on a roll last night! This from SCE:

'[...]
As you will have seen from this and previous I am a bear - but a friendly one who does not believe everything that comes out as PR or an RNS. And yes I do hold
DYOR
PS don't forget the board (incl NEDS) read these and if they think they are on an easy ride - well I will leave it to your imagination - hint - your feeding them'

How many more boards did you post the same stuff on? Or to put it another way, how many shares do you own, on which you're a bear? That's a hard row to hoe...

[the prophet] 03/12/2016 10:19

ps, just as well you can only have a x1 fall in your share price, 'cos if it could be more then you can bet these guys would go for it!!!

[the prophet] 03/12/2016 10:16

ok, ten bagger in reverse....40p -----> 4p or whatever, so that's divide by 10, not my 'x 10 decrease'.
Will ammend my post, but whatever you call it, it ain't good or clever!

[the prophet] 03/12/2016 09:12

ah, good point Swiss Paul, the Edison report of 13th September confirms your point:

'A strong sales pipeline now stands at c£150m and includes two sole source contracts for the MOD in TPG Maritime worth c£50m that are due to start negotiation shortly'

I would assume that TPG will win the £50m two sole source contracts, although as the 4th July announcement expected the contracts to start in early 2017, TPG must hope that the negotiations are concluded fairly soon.

The problem with these sort of contracts is the headline figure looks great, but as the deals are over an extended period of time and the contracts are margin constrained, they ain't as good as first glance, although they do provide for a certain amount of stability and forward planning and keeping the bod in gravy. But as for profits for investors, well, there ain't much left!
For example, the potential contract announced on 4th July was for around £28m over 7 years. That's £4m a year. If the margin was 10%, that's £400K a year profit to TPG group. That ain't a lot. Spread that over 422m shares and it's even less in terms of eps.

Worth noting that TPG had just over 100m shares in issue at the time of Mr Cartmell's appointment, a lesson on what dilution does to shareholder value! Couple that with the ten-bagger in reverse decline in the share price and TPG is a lesson in the destruction of shareholder value, ouch! During these hard-times for TPG investors the bod have consistently awarded themselves inflation busting pay rises and bonuses. The bod have been totally insulated from the 90%+ shareholder destruction they have caused and created. In short, their record has been an appalling one but I shouldn't think they are too bothered, the millions they have raked in over the years with their non-performance will no doubt give them a warm and cosy feeling.

[swiss paul] 03/12/2016 00:13

Gents - sometimes u need a bear on the board to bring in a view that may not be the same as yourselves. Don't forget the BOD and NEDs also read these boards and if they see all is sweet and light then it is easy money.
You should look in depth at an RNS and see what is it they are not telling us?
fer instance:
TP Group (AIM: TPG), the specialist services and engineering group, announces it has been awarded a contract with BAE Systems Marine Ltd. for £5.3m.
The contract commences immediately and will be delivered over the next two years by the Group's engineering team in Portsmouth. This contract is in addition to the two previous announcements made in July and August this year, regarding sole-source negotiations that are now in progress for future contracts involving the MoD and TP Group.

the words you should look at are "now in progress for future contracts"

is it a done deal yet?

I can understand PA & TP issues, but after all its our money

[the prophet] 02/12/2016 08:37

timojelly

No, I saved myself a small fortune by getting out in time! Last exit was at 18p.
However, I continue to follow the company with interest and will post as I see fit.

I raise very valid points, to which I rarely get answers, but a lot of bluster from Mr Pavey Ark who loves to label my legitimate questions as 'hysterical rants'.

Still, hysterical might be an improvement on delusional Pavey Ark.Hmmm, tell us about the compounding share price Pavey, or how you 'never' post on shares you don't own or your great 'averaging down' post (was it 7p?), no wonder the guy comes up with a lot of hot air and bluster.

Fact is this lot are due to be loss making again this year and then make a minuscule profit next year.Lot of effort and contracts for sweet fa.
The share price performance over the last 7 years sums up what the market thinks of TPG, never mind what I say. Check it out, basically a slant down from left to right with the occasional bump up trying to stem the drop down.

Loads of decent shares out there, this ain't one of them. Strewn with problems which I will continue to highlight.

[pavey ark] 02/12/2016 07:49

To quote Edward Gibbon:
I never make the mistake of arguing with people for whose opinions I have no respect.

I don't suppose I'm alone here and these, now hysterical, rants have lost whatever entertainment value they ever had.

[timojelly] 02/12/2016 06:39

Cartmel Cartmel Cartmel........ You must of lost a fkin packet over time during the Dgc failure TP, to carry on with this negativity ain't healthy, trust me, been there. Gotta move on matey.

[the prophet] 02/12/2016 00:25

This bit from Edison is so lovely it just has to be repeated:'The capital reduction allows augmentation of organic shareholder value creation with strategic bolt-ons'Or, to put it another way, under Cartmell's tenure the shares have 10 bagged the other way, from 40p to 4p, so as the share price was under the nominal value of the shares (5p), we were forced into a capital reduction if we wanted to issue yet another raft of shares. After all, the 'organic shareholder value creation ' from the acquisitions to date has been pretty stunning.......not! But on the other hand, every cloud has a silver lining and if the share price falls Cartmell will no doubt get his acquisition bonus and its dead easy to issue another bunch of share options to the bod at knock down rates.Heads I win, tails you lose. Easy money for this lot. Shareholder value? Their taking the michael big time.

[the prophet] 02/12/2016 00:16

LoL!That has to be the best laugh I've had for ages. Talk about stunning naivety! Total classic.Edison Research is paid for research. It is not independent research. There is nothing wrong in that and they provide a useful service , especially to smaller customers looking to get their story out there.But please bear in mind that for Edison, the customer is TP Group. Everything they publish has been run past TPG first. I'm sure Edison like to retain as many customers as possible and put the best spin on things they can.Be interested when Edison actually increase their forecasts off the back of all these contracts. Or are they already factored in? Legitimate question that, it seems, TPG fans don't seem too keen to answer!So, for now, it's another year of losses forecast for 2016 and eps of 0.1p for 2017 putting the shares on a forward p/e of 50.No wonder they need to find some more acquisitions.

[pavey ark] 01/12/2016 20:36

I see that our friends at Edison Research updated on the 29th Nov

"Order intake is growing in H2, with a new Managed Services contract from the UK MOD to support Army HQ on the LE TacCIS programme. The capital reduction allows augmentation of organic shareholder value creation with strategic bolt-ons. Following recent declines, the shares offer substantial potential in our view."

Two points here:
1. They mentioned and highlighted the significance of the new Army contracts.
2. They published their update without being aware that the BAE contract was being announced.

If you believe some here you would think that ER are simply a mouthpiece for management but if you look at their web site you will see that they take great pains to point out that although they may receive payment from their clients their analysts must keep a safe distance.
ER have consistently low balled their estimate but to be fair they have said that they are usually cautious and conservative.

Back to basics here:

I had a look at the Astute programme and note that the third boat is entering service this year with the first boat having been in service for six years.
Four more of the class to go at two year intervals with the first boats now requiring refurb/upgrade ......for TPG this just keeps on giving.

The two large MoD contracts are interesting with the larger availability /maintenance contract being worth £4m a year. A one year stop gap contract was signed to cover this year and it was for £1.5m.
The reason for the increase was , in my mind, to cover the Astute programme.
The smaller contract for £3m a year was for the actual equipment presumably for the four new boats and spares.

The advantage of having these contacts is enormous and while there is no doubt that TPG relies on orders from the Navy these units are ESSENTIAL to the Navy programme.

Under these circumstances it is very difficult to imagine a situation where machinery costs, staff training etc that are set against the MoD order don't find their way to other projects.
The second advantage is the ability to organise your production round such certain orders.
I wonder how much of total costs are covered by these contracts but the Navy will expect to have a very reliable maintenance/supply chain as a result.

We have had a new contract announcement every month in H2, the MoD contacts are close, we have started getting
the Dreadnought class contracts ( I'm assuming that the £5.3m was the start).
The French, German and a number of far eastern submarine builder are placing new contracts and that is even before we count in the Australian submarine order that was given to a french company that is supplied by TPG.

All this and a market cap of £21m with £8m cash or an enterprise value of £13m.

[qackers] 29/11/2016 22:10

Work starts on Dreadnought fleet
By George Allison - October 26, 2016




Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has announced that work has started on the UK’s Dreadnought nuclear missile submarine fleet with a £1.3 billion investment.

The Dreadnought project has now moved into the next stage, known as ‘Delivery Phase 1’, with manufacturing work beginning on structural steel work for the ‘auxiliary machine space’ of the first submarine: this contains switchboards and control panels for the reactor.



The money will also be spent furthering the design of the submarine, purchasing materials and long lead items, and investing in facilities at the BAE Systems yard in Barrow-in-Furness where the submarines will be built.

[pavey ark] 29/11/2016 19:31

"Fitting out a submarine with this kit doesn’t come cheap either; a non nuclear one will probably cost £1-£2m but it can cost up to £10m for a nuclear one. And then, of course, there is money to be made from servicing and spares."
This from the interview with Sharewatch in September so this contract today looks like the start of production/development programme for the Trident replacement programme.
My understanding is that BAE systems is contracted to build the submarines and see them through to commissioning but the navy will obviously require spare purification units as these are essential components.
The single source contracts are for maintenance, support and replacement equipment but I suspect that given the timescale this is for the Astute class boats with something similar and larger to eventually come for the deterrent missile boats.

It looks like some people are trying to play down the significance of the £50m long term contracts but TPG already does this type of work for the MoD and advantage of such forward visibility is that the entire operation can be planned very efficiently.
Training programmes, machinery, production runs etc will all benefit the whole production process and the way things are going the MoD contract may not be that significant given the increasing order book.
This crossover was highlighted in the Sharewatch interview when it was said that the margin on other contracts were very, very much higher.
I suspect that a large part of the MoD contract is to ensure that the navy is given priority of supply as almost every other navy does want/need this kit.

The company is going from strength to strength.

I look forward to the results and I am especially interested in the MS unit.
Hints have been given about bolt on purchases in MS and Simon Kings did make a big thing of the work they would/do with BAE and the MoD.
As the recent contracts show TPG appears to be very well connected with both and the Engineering unit is "fit for nuclear" so they may pick up some construction work on the new submarines.

As I said, the company is going from strength to strength and with c.£8m cash and these orders coming in it is obviously looking like a very, very sound investment.

[itchycrack] 29/11/2016 18:51

Another contract win - good steady progress being made here, looking good for 2017.

[the prophet] 29/11/2016 17:51

Kemche

No, main reasons:

1. Poor and greedy management.

2. 7 yrs under Cartmell and this year another loss is forecast

3. Disparate set of businesses with no real synergy.

4. Main business, the submarine air business, is margin constrained due to being 'sole supplier' and subject to the usual delays that go with this type of business.

5. The other businesses are not worth bothering with.

6. Minuscule profit forecast for next year , puts the shares on a forward p/e of around 60

7. Far better opps available elsewhere without taking a punt on this poor performer.

There are plenty of other reasons as well!

[kemche] 29/11/2016 16:52

Prophet, If you were coming to this as a new investment prospect would you be a buyer?

[timojelly] 29/11/2016 16:51

Still a turnaround, up we go..

[the prophet] 29/11/2016 16:49

Must be a longer turn-around than the QE2, what, 7 years and counting?Still, a modest profit is forecast for next year, so slow progress.

[kemche] 29/11/2016 14:43

Mkt cap circa £23m. Cash £7.5m at June end. EV therefore £15m odd. Order pipeline at June £150m.

The company is in a turnaround situation offering deep value and GARP - IMHO.

[siofers93] 29/11/2016 14:40

New days highs :)

[septblues] 29/11/2016 14:29

what's the margin these days on a sole supplier contract?