Stagecoach Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 11/12/2014 12:54

Stagecoach boss: free bus travel comes at a cost

Chief executive Martin Griffiths rails against Labour’s transport plans and says bus perk for pensioners puts services at risk

[sawadee3] 11/12/2014 12:19

So...just a blip yesterday then. Was wanting it to go lower actually, I love market overreaction for loading up on quality companies.

Happy days chaps :-)

[zho] 10/12/2014 18:09

Stagecoach reverses 7% as competition weighs on bus business

Company keeps full year forecasts unchanged but warns of issues with buses and America

[mazarin] 10/12/2014 18:06

I'm clearly rather disappointed by today's sharp 'Market reaction', but take some comfort that brokers have not been 'put off' by SGC's future prospects, to see what the Broker's have said after today's fiasco

[sawadee3] 10/12/2014 14:25

Indeed, i sell a percentage at the beginning of every month then buy back usually in the 3rd week, thus gaining free shares. That trend has been pretty easy to play. Someone explained a while back why it was happening. It is all to do with the time of month when the Brokers/institutions are buying.

I see no reason to change my strategy. As I said, I will be taking advantage again :-)

[uknighted] 10/12/2014 12:55

Not giving advice just an example of why shares may be sold. It's a big drop today. I seem to recall that you sell when the price is high and buy back later in the month?

[sawadee3] 10/12/2014 11:36

KIBO looks more like a short to me uknighted. Away with the spam.

[uknighted] 10/12/2014 11:23

Why sell? Some one might have found a better investment at the moment, like Kibo for example.

[sawadee3] 10/12/2014 11:20

Exactly Mazarin. Why sell when we have ever increasing divi payments year after year? I will certainly be taking advantage :-)

How does the falling oil price affect us? Seems good to me! Do we hedge?

[sawadee3] 10/12/2014 09:16

Seeing as I buy these as regular as clockwork and have done for years, I welcome a cheaper price. Thank you Mrs Market :-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[sawadee3] 08/12/2014 14:35

Happy days chaps :-)

[mazarin] 07/12/2014 17:46

The franchise "standstill" period of at least 10 days expired on 6th Dec, so the formal Contract for East Coast Line should be soon be signed up by DfT
The Guardian comments this weekend ahead of Wednesday's results :

[mazarin] 03/12/2014 09:12

SGC due to release interim results for the six months ended 31 October 2014 next week on 10 December 2014.

[zho] 28/11/2014 09:00

What was it transport secretary Patrick McLoughlin said in the prospectus for the East Coast franchise competition? Oh yes: “We want to see a revitalised east coast railway; one that rekindles the spirit of competition for customers on this great route to Scotland and competes with the west coast on speed, quality and customer service.”

Quite how that ambition for east-west competition squares with the new reality is hard to fathom. The east coast victor is a company 90% owned by Stagecoach and 10% by Virgin. The current west coast operator is a 50/50 joint venture between the same two companies. If this was British Airways with a stranglehold on the London-Edinburgh route in the sky, one Sir Richard Branson might have an opinion or two.

Stagecoach’s share price rose 8%. That’s understandable, of course, as franchise wins are usually greeted with enthusiasm in the City. On this occasion, however, you might think investors might tread more carefully. First, because of the competition angle, Stagecoach-Virgin may be on the back foot when the west coast franchise comes up for grabs in 2017. The monopoly worries would look less serious if the east-west dominance lasts only three years.

Second, the record of east coast operators is horrible. GNER hit the financial buffers and National Express handed back the keys. Stagecoach is a much smarter and more experienced operator. Even so, agreeing to pay £3.3bn over the life of the eight-year contract, or £2.3bn in 2014 prices, strikes many old railway hands as a very high price.

[mazarin] 27/11/2014 11:02

I've been patiently hoping for this news for quite a long time now and believe that it has not been a easy journey for Stagecoach & partner, as reflected in the 'bumpy ride' of the 'sp' that has rattled around £3.70 line throughout most of the year. DfT Franchise bids have a history of been dogged by poor decision making and led to notorious fiasco's. The process is a costly exercise for all concerned. I thought the sudden falls in the 'sp' at the beginning of this month and on occasions earlier this year were signs of concern that perhaps we'd lost the bid to rival bidders, but nonetheless decided to 'stay on board'.

Today's news comes as a welcome relief, justifying both my faith and decision to stay holding my SGC ticket. So well done to the Franchise team at Stagecoach and Virgin... We finally got there!
There had been several rumours of the franchise possibly going to the French firm Keolis after the previous operator of the rail line, National Express experienced financial difficulties, forcing the government to take back control in 2009. See following link for info:

The government says it has always intended to return the route to the private sector, but transport unions had been pushing for the franchise to remain in public ownership on behalf of its members and being successful bringing in money to the Treasury. Following this new 8 year contract, with an option for a one-year's discretional extension by the Department for Transport's, Stagecoach and Virgin will now control both mainline routes running between London and Scotland. There now follows a 10 day settlement period before contracts are formally signed.

Other companies bidding for the franchise were FirstGroup and a joint venture between Eurostar and Keolis.

The Contract, once established has been assessed as being worth up to an additional 30p per share. However, this will no doubt be the subject of much discussion in the Financial news this weekend and probably run over next few weeks as each faction argues its case and also as Analysts crunch the numbers, so could prove to be interesting times to follow. Broker notes from Investec and Panmure Gordon have today already recommended 'Add' and 'Buy' notes for SGC and I'm sure more will follow.

[leadersoffice] 27/11/2014 08:30

Solid investment.

[leadersoffice] 27/11/2014 08:30

Well done Stagecoach.

[mazarin] 03/11/2014 12:35

I'm rather disappointed to see this morning's rapid fall and can find nothing to account for it as yet. The share price was generally doing quite well on the week until around midday last Friday (31st) when it suddenly nose dived from a steady trending rise to around £3.95, then faltered and it's continued down much further today, presumably triggering a few stop-losses on the way. SGC's currently down 3.2% and I also note, so is National Express - it too is currently down 2.21% on the day. Is it that the Sector's just simply fallen 'out of favour' or is there something else at play here? Any ideas as to just what's behind it?

[sawadee3] 31/10/2014 10:50

Solid company :-)

God bless you Sir Brian :-)

[mazarin] 31/10/2014 09:03

Just checked October's round of Broker notes for SGC they are : Deutsche Bank - Buy Target 400: Panmure Gordon - Buy Target 400: Investec Add 405: Jefferies Int - Hold 415: HSBC - Overweight 440, all are fairly consistent with previous notes

[sawadee3] 30/10/2014 12:13

Rising towards the end of month in style :-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[mazarin] 29/10/2014 20:59

SGC today reports its 'on track' to meet its FY expectations despite some challenges ahead and is already attracting improved Broker forecasts.

[sawadee3] 23/10/2014 09:21

Such a reliable, comfortable investment with a steady income stream. Also back to old form and rising towards the end of month :-)