Soco Share Discussion Threads

[invisage] 20/9/2016 15:16

Having a stonking day.....wow

[invisage] 15/9/2016 22:17

Carmensfella took a whack today, yikes! As did Genghapoo...

CRAWSHAW down 44% today.



BEEF UP YOUR INVESTMENT - CRAW
davidosh - 14 Sep 2016 - 13:16:36 - 4038 of 4167
Incidentally the results meeting this year is likely to be on the 29th.

This is a three to five year growth story and although I have no idea on current trading the business model long term is very much intact. Institutions will come in and mop up any weak selling as they have done in the past.

Moral of the story? Avoid companies that burn cash, very low margins and don't make or has a very small profit. And don't invest by hanging onto an "experts" coat tails..

[invisage] 15/9/2016 22:00

RPC UP 5.5% today.

If we take a closer look...

*22 years of dividend growth
*2.3% yield
*Dividend covered 2.7x
*Rising uptrend on the chart, left to right diagonal line
*Forecast to increase turnover significantly in the next few years
*Decent increases in earnings over the next few years
*Forecast PE of 16
*Diversified business across Europe, UK and RoW
*Low debt and pension liabilities
*Large increases in cashflow in recent years and expected to continue in the coming years
*Standard life buying a chunk of shares in August


What is not to like?

You see chaps, you buy good companies and HOLD them, get on with your life and let the company do it's thing.

ALWAYS ONLY Invest in GOOD companies. Quality pay's off, even if you have to a bit more then you would like!

[invisage] 15/9/2016 14:49

RPC up 4.57% today whoop whoop :)

[nigelpm] 15/9/2016 13:09

To be fair I'm not "sure" either.

However, even at $50 Soco will be fine as will OPHR and the like.

In fact the upside is likely to come from other companies going bust and providing those with resources the opportunity to get value.

The major risk is a new environment where $30-35 ensues - that would be painful for sure.

[ed 123] 15/9/2016 12:32

I'm not so sure that oil will go back as high as $70/$80. The various producers around the world will up their output if they see a price rise, I think. Also, with cost reductions, there have been survivors that ought to have gone bust. Even Enquest is still hanging on in there. Yes, global investment has been cut but I think, as with operators' costs, the market will find a way of keeping up output. All very 'feely', but I wouldn't be surprised at an oil price of $50/bbl in 2 or 3 years time.

Apart from a couple of tidly bits, I've only got Faroe Petroleum in the O and G sector. I can see it growing output from its 16m boepd to maybe 35m boepd in say 5 years. That would be by using cash flow and cash to develop its existing oil and gas discoveries. Not at all certain, though, and Faroe may once again flatter only to deceive. I'd like to see it move to a full listing. It would be taken more seriously by investors then.

[nigelpm] 15/9/2016 12:08

Fair enough. Will take a look.

I'm deliberately holding cash rich, asset rich O&G assets with room to grow then occasionally shorting oil on the peaks - with the contango it's working ok.

With the longer term macro view that oil will rise back to $70/80 once the current oversupply is done.

[ed 123] 15/9/2016 12:06

Nigelpm.

From my post 18342 (1st Septemeber 2016) ...

Instead of buying more Soco, you could have put that money into a non-oil business that had a track record of raising eps and dividends. Such companies don't come cheap (as we are reminded by Invisage). One such company, I'd say, is RPC. Today you bought Soco at 145p (?), RPC closed at 870p. The oil price is supposed to be going up in 2 years time and Soco is trying to get agreement to raise TGT production. Nothwithstanding that, if Soco has outperformed (ie. dividends plus share price) RPC 2 years from now, I'll come back here and grovel to you.

Early days, of course, but RPC now is 884p and Soco is 135p. So, RPC up 1.6% and Soco down 9.3%.

RPC's plastic packaging products go into a growing market (some switching from glass, some population growth, growth of middle class consumers in developing world. They have production in about 30 countries around the world, so country and currency risk mitigated. They regularly take over smaller competitors, strip out central costs, buy materials under better Group contracts and raise earnings per share. Management are excellent, imv. I've been to AGM and spoken to them.

(Not giving buying advice to anyone of course, just my view of a better long term place than Soco.)

[kirkie001] 15/9/2016 11:31

Personally - I have a stack invested in SIA (which is unfortunately a considerably smaller stack than a few years ago!), but that won't be moving until the end game. Absent some kind of Deep Water Horizon type disaster, I'll be holding SIA until some kind of corporate action happens - even if this thing just unwinds by oil extraction, there will be value coming off over the future. It just won't be very exciting.

Having said that, I struggle to find the case for putting any new money in. If I didn't have any exposure to the share, I could see (and make!) the case for wanting exposure - as I said above, I think there's value here. But, from the point of view of a diversified portfolio, I've hit my allocation here, and new money will be going elsewhere.

I'm just struggling to find very many persuasive valuations that make me want to invest - so I have a much larger proportion of cash at the mo than I normally do!

[nigelpm] 15/9/2016 11:22

I'll call you - What would you rather hold Ed?

[ed 123] 15/9/2016 09:53

I wouldn't be surprised to see it test the 116p low from 1st June this year.

Imv, there's no reason to buy, while at the same time some stale holders are booking their losses and moving on. More sellers than buyers = falling share price.

A rise in the oil price looks to be some way off ... if it comes. And if it does come, where will players want to put their money? They will go for those companies higher geared to the oil price. So, in addition to Soco falling now, I'd expect it to be left behind in any rise too.

I know I won't be popular with holders but there are about 5,000 UK listed and AIM stocks to choose from. Why buy/hold Soco?

[nigelpm] 15/9/2016 08:53

Fun and games.

[greyingsurfer] 15/9/2016 08:28

Whoever is selling seems to be carrying on today.

Peter

[buywell3] 15/9/2016 02:45

No we are not

But of course you know that

Note the words ''At least " below




























IEA Says Oil Supply Will Outpace Demand Until At Least Mid-2017





Jayson Derrick , Benzinga Staff Writer

September 14, 2016 10:58am

[nigelpm] 14/9/2016 22:23

The POO goes mad again - seems clear to me that it runs in cycles - we are certainly at the bottom of the cycle right now.

[emptyend] 14/9/2016 20:19

Some interesting phrases in this piece re the overall market position:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/13/oil-investment-crashes-to-60-year-low-incubating-next-energy-sho/....particularly interesting in relation to what happens when the current glut is finally worked off....

[emptyend] 14/9/2016 17:23

....highest volume for a month. I guess someone has a lot to sell.....;-)

[invisage] 13/9/2016 08:07

GO JD. GO!!!!!

[invisage] 13/9/2016 07:08

JD.CRACKING SET OF RESULTS! 73% increase in profit before tax. Huge increase in cash encouraging outlook statement. Expanding into Europe.Guess who holds JD. ? :-)

[buywell3] 13/9/2016 03:34

Vietnamese OIL = Coming CHINA Crisis

Not yet factored in the share price here

OIL down to below $40 in 2017 anybody ?