Prelude Trust Share Discussion Threads

[jtjh] 01/11/2007 12:01

Some welcome good news. There must be support for the IPO and it just remains what sort of valuation will be agreed. Hopefully something over the current portfolio valuation - we will see!!!

[rivaldo] 01/11/2007 11:58

Given Kiadis had a big financing round at the end of June (presumably on which PDT's September valuation was based) you'd expect a decent mark-up on IPO.

And since then Kiadis have had two successful anti-cancer study results, one for a product now going into Phase 111 and one other well into Phase 11.

So maybe a 30%-40% mark-up plus an IPO premium? Which would give back up for another say £4m of PDT's £34m m/cap.

[timtom2] 01/11/2007 11:31

Hope so. Will have to see if this leads to any dilution or if it will stil be 6.33% of the IPO valuation. The current valuatin suggests it is valued at about 44.6M£. SO lets say 40M shares suggests an IPO at at least £1.11 per. Too close to the £1.00 so make it £1.50 ??

Interesting to see and wonder what t/frame?

[hvs] 01/11/2007 11:26

Nice one SWalker,

Hopefully we will see a jump in the valuation.

[timtom2] 31/10/2007 12:20

ralva - would have to agree but it is a hough provoking idea and not impossible. Quickest way to unlock potential and could there be a cash + shares element to any seller?

At least the PI's in PDT could keep some exposure to the portfolio companies without having to buy into the new Trust with transaction costs?

The new Trust could shout about how good they are to have reduce the management costs overall too.

[rivaldo] 31/10/2007 12:15

Polatis news:



"University College London chooses Polatis
OCTOBER 30, 2007 -- The particle physics group at the University College London has chosen a Polatis (search for Polatis) all-optical switch for a data acquisition system test bed.

The target application is data collection from a detector at the International Linear Collider, which is currently in development. The group is investigating fast network approaches in order to aggregate data, reducing hardware requirement and thus saving money.

As shown in the diagram above, the optical switch lies at the interface between the raw data delivery from the detector slabs and a PC farm, which performs initial data processing.

The task of the switch is to do routing and dispatching in case of failure of any of the PCs. The fast switching time of the Polatis switch, i.e. less than 20 msec, is consistent with the interval between two data bursts, so-called bunch trains, of about 200 msec. Consequently, no more than one data burst is lost in any rerouting event. In addition, an all-optical approach is required because the underlying protocol has to be customized for the data acquisition system. The Polatis says its optical switch was particularly appealing for the UCL application because it enables reduction in the cost of the adjacent fibers and PCI cards with the PCs.

Polatis adds that once the International Linear Collider begins operation it will be able to give a much more precise picture of elementary particle physics than the Large Hadron Collider, which will start to produce data towards the end of this year at CERN in Geneva. Physicists will be able to look into the properties of known elementary particles like the top quark, make new discoveries and confirm findings, or identify signals obtained from earlier work at the Large Hadron Collider."

[ralva] 30/10/2007 16:31

If DFJ Esprit are being paid 2-1/2% management fee on Prelude Trust, and another, say 2-1/2% on the new fund then I just can't see them giving up one of those fees by using the money from the new fund to buy out the old fund. There would also be the very obvious conflicts of interest over the valuation of the investments in Prelude. Despite the undoubted potential of the portfolio I bet that they wouldn't even offer NAV.

[rivaldo] 30/10/2007 16:02

:o)) Maybe you're onto something there hvs - DFJ are obviously keen on PDT, so who knows?

An article about Lime - I know WiMax is the coming thing, so it all sounds great, but if anyone's got a techie angle to add then it'd be appreciated!



"Lime targets WiMAX 30/10/2007

Demand for WiMAX communications is predicted to grow rapidly in the near future, but which part of the spectrum it will use is likely to depend upon where you use it. Responding to this potential problem, wireless start up Lime Microsystems is developing a digitally configurable transceiver to support transmissions from 700MHz to more than 5GHz.

"Our market entry," said ceo Ebrahim Bushehri (pictured), "will be WiMAX, but we're looking at cellular communications, including LTE."

Initially, the company has produced a reference design targeted at MicroTCA based systems. The design has six user selectable channel bandwidths from 1.5 to 14MHz and operates in bands from 2 to 4GHz.

At the heart of the reference design is Lime's rf transceiver, which provides support for multiple frequencies. Currently, this is a SiGe chipset, but the company will migrate this to cmos in the near future and plans to unveil the single chip solution early next year. "We're driving towards a single chip solution," said Bushehri, "and that's what we want to sell."

A further development, expected later in 2008, will be a version of the transceiver capable of supporting MIMO communications."

[timtom2] 30/10/2007 14:54

Now that's an idea hvs. hvs for Chairman/CEO of PDT as I doubt the encumbent has that much snouse.

[hvs] 30/10/2007 14:23

Maybe with Euro 300 million , one of their options will be to make a bid for PDT as there is value there and then start investing in new start ups.

[timtom2] 30/10/2007 11:29

Very valid point ralva. PDT will be the poor cousin and no doubt mangemenmt wil have to keep institutions happy and can ingnore PI's in on the PDT side.

[ralva] 30/10/2007 10:00

I understand that DFJ Esprit---the new management company for Prelude Trust is trying to raise up to Euro 300m from insitiutional investors for their new fund----another fat lump of management fees if they are sucessful. Under the circumstances one wonders if it wouldn't be better to put the trust into wind up mode, reserve enough for follow on into existing investments and then just return the cash from disposals to shareholders. I can't imagine that they will be concentrating on Prelude Trust very much if they all that new money to play with.

[fse] 30/10/2007 01:10

Yes their performance has hardly been inspiring !

[timtom2] 29/10/2007 21:50

De-risked but stellar growth on new investments less likely as they will have a smaller % of any growth there is.

"As previously reported, the Manager is now seeking to rebalance the portfolio so that it includes a larger number of smaller shareholdings in later stage businesses with growing revenues."

I couldn' care less if they have higher %'s of growing companies (with the trisk) as long as they prove they can exit at a decet return over time.

We will now have a lower risk scenario where the trust has potentially less growth and still no proof of ability to exit. It's an admission of the failure of their previous approach.

If they couldn;t make the last way forward work lets hope they manage something this time.

[fse] 29/10/2007 20:54

FSE> Couple of observations...
Looks like they will in the future rely on funds from disposals to re invest and allow that cash pile to be drawn down....

" Trust's capacity to invest in new companies
will, in the near term, be governed by its ability to generate funds through
realisations."

FSE> Also I note they are going to move to later stage plays...

"In the past, the Trust's portfolio has been concentrated in a small number of
pre-revenue early and development stage companies where the Trust has generally
been the lead investor. As previously reported, the Manager is now seeking to
rebalance the portfolio so that it includes a larger number of smaller
shareholdings in later stage businesses with growing revenues."

FSE>It seems like a general shift in the right direction, hopefully new management will be more inspired to look after shareholders interests or otherwise they are going to find it very hard to attract new business...

[rivaldo] 29/10/2007 20:36

As you say, the portfolio looks good. I'll be contacting management to discuss share buybacks etc.

In the meantime....interesting stuff from Oxford Immunotec. PDT announced their $40m funding round today:



But there's some more interesting comments here:



"Oxford, UK; 29th October 2007 – Oxford Immunotec, the fully integrated T cell diagnostics company, announced today that it has closed a financing round of US$40m. The funding marks the largest financing round for a diagnostics company in Europe in the past two years."

And:
"Dr. Rainer Strohmenger, a General Partner at Wellington Partners, added: "What prompted us to invest in Oxford Immunotec is the company's revolutionary technology platform, T-SPOT®, which offers huge application potential. It currently provides the most sensitive and specific method for diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection. However we also foresee potential applications in the diagnosis of chronic infections other than tuberculosis and in any quantitative measurement of specific T-cell activation, where Oxford Immunotec has a strong IP position.""

Also, rave reviews for DisplayLink:



"I've been a technology journalist for a very long time, and I've seen a great many technological breakthrough during that time. But the problem with having many (maybe too many) years behind you, is that you become somewhat jaded and sceptical. So while manufacturers are evangelising about their latest product or technology, I often find myself sitting there wandering what all the fuss is about. But once in a while a new technology appears that really does make me sit up and take notice, and sometimes that technology really is a new breakthrough."

"Verdict

The DisplayLink technology that Samsung has embedded into the SyncMaster 940UX is truly superb, simple as that. Being able to hook up multiple screens digitally, over USB is an inspired idea, and a welcome feature for anyone who uses a notebook as their main computer.

I'm sure that the SyncMaster 940UX is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to USB display technology, and Samsung has already told me that there will be 1,600 x 1,200 displays and widescreen versions available next year. As it stands though, the 940UX is a great screen for anyone that needs multiple, digitally connected monitors."

[jtjh] 29/10/2007 09:53

I'm not sure what the answer is - perhaps a change at the top will help. The enlarged management structure has yet to show its merit.

[timtom2] 29/10/2007 08:45

riv - no one can guarantee there is no reason to fall.

A nasty surpised, better opps elsewhere, a real belief that no matter what the discount to NAV the Trust can' close the gap........

The portfolio looks good - shame about the management of the Trust.

Until some proof of ability to extract value arrives this is dead money and the bank can give close to 6%. Work out the cost of holding PDT if it doesn't deliver 6%+ for a while. Performance here is fairly lack-lustre unless you are lucky - I was lucky.

[timtom2] 29/10/2007 08:41

jtjh - perhaps the Chairman oing will help. 10 years with this level of performance and I'm surprised he wasn't pushed sooner.

[jtjh] 29/10/2007 08:27

The emphasis on the discount to NAV by some shareholders is, to me, somewhat desperate. I know that there has to be some sort of valuation model, but to put much reliance on it when, by the nature of these type of investments any valuation must be decidedly unreliable.
I'm not having a go at anyone and I'm simply posting a more sceptical line than most of those on the main thread.

[rivaldo] 29/10/2007 08:07

Results out - NAV of 136.4p:



The big disappointment for me is Siconnect. Other than that I suppose the write-downs in Sciona and De Novo don't come as a huge surprise, if unwelcome as I'd hoped for better.

The portfolio summary is interesting though. The portfolio is becoming better balanced in favour of those investments which look like having a real chance - Polatis, DisplayLink, ZBD, Xmos, M-Spatial, Kiadis etc. And from the sound of it Oxford Immunotec may well be upgraded again next year judging by the support it's received.

No fresh investments either now with £7.6m cash in hand, which is good to hear.

The discount to NAV is such that there's no reason for the price to fall. We just have to sit and wait for exits....as always....

[jtjh] 29/10/2007 07:49

It comes as no surprise that 4 of the companies in the portfolio have been written down in valuation - I wrote in the header that many were long in the tooth. Unfortunately, or by bad management, we seem to have rather large holdings in the aforesaid companies. We certainly need some good news soon!!!

[hvs] 25/10/2007 16:50

Its BLUE today,

Could this be the start of a run up. Volume going up as well.