Prelude Trust Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 09/1/2008 13:04

Hi Orange and Riv,

Thank you for the above posts.

[orange1] 09/1/2008 07:45

Same story but more clearly explained (imo):
EUROGENE – eTEN Consortium to Provide Nutrigenetic e-Services

A healthy diet and lifestyle have an important role to play in delaying
onset or prevention of many common complex conditions, such as osteoporosis, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.
Nutrigenetics and nutrigenomics have the potential to bear a significant
impact on health and wellness. Several studies demonstrated that, once diet and lifestyle advice has become personalized to the patient, compliance with healthy living programs improves.
To achieve the promise of nutrigenetics it will be necessary to establish its use as a routine tool in health prevention and there are several barriers to overcome for this to happen. eTEN is a European Community program providing funds to help make e-services available throughout the European Union. In addition, it enabled the creation of a consortium, EUROGENE, which has the scope of delivering nutrigenetic services to individuals, either directly or via health care clinics.

The 18-month project will involve developing e-services to enable the deployment of current (the Sciona MyCellf program) and future nutrigenetic-based profiles in pilot clinics situated in Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain. Electronic systems will be applied to localize (cultural, regulatory, language, etc.), simplify and streamline the process,enabling online selection of nutrigenetic tests and secure encrypted delivery of personalized advice. System development will also provide seamless integration with clinical records, allowing secure
capture of patient data and monitoring of patient progress with
updated personalized advice delivered upon request.

An important part of the project will be development of a clear business plan plus comprehensive market analysis and validation of the service. The final goal of EUROGENE will be to create a costeffective service through the pilot sites that can be rapidly and easily scaled to be applied to preventative healthcare clinics throughout Europe.

[russianlinesman] 08/1/2008 21:02

Fascinating psychology that there is now a bull thread and a bear thread. Apparently (according to rivaldo's feedback on the other thread) my comments are designed to talk down the price so I can buy back in. Shame I wasn't able to influence the share price in the other direction during the 7 years I owned some.

As rivaldo says, the lemons ripen before the oranges. Only problem is that PDT is now 10 years old, the good oranges were sold, and PDT used the money to buy some more fruit trees of uncertain variety. They announced in 2004/5 their move to invest in later-stage investments, which would be held for a shorter period prior to exit, but the portfolio (except for Ox Immu) seems to contain no late-stage investments.

Well, I said my bit and I will now withdraw, and let's see in 6/12 months what's going on. Remember 4 years ago, the discount to quoted NAV was above 50% and only Alphamosaic brought it out of that trough. Maybe DisplayLInk will be the one this time, but the NAV (whether the market accepts it or not) is still a lot less than it would have been if Prelude had put the £51m in the bank.

Remember that the Americans bought Prelude Management, not the funds - they recognise a good management contract when they see one, and is a win-win for them - investee company does well, they sing its praises, they all go under, and it was nothing to do with them. Meantime costs are covered by the NAV-related management fee (note the management fee is not related to the share price - but no need to re-visit the management is incentivised to claim a higher NAV to raise their fees argument).

Like Arnie, I'll be back (but just to see whether i'm learning anything, not to buy any shares!) I wouldn't want to be held personally responsible if the share price falls lower, seeing as how I have such a large influence on the price.

hasta la vista
rl

[timtom2] 08/1/2008 16:56

Low volume of sells causing the share price to drop. Shame but unless they pull something out of the hat I can't see it recovering quickly. For now at least money is best in B Soc rather than PDT. If it drops sufficiently that will change. Question is - what is sufficient?

[hvs] 08/1/2008 16:48

Hi riv,

Keep up the good work.

Uts not easy at present but we should see some recovery in share price in 2nd half 2008.

[orange1] 08/1/2008 07:30

DisplayLink is one of the killer technologies at CES 2008

"Of all the technologies I've seen at CES 2008 so far, this is the one that, given how incredibly practical it is, I said to myself, "Self, I want it and I want it now." But what may really make it the killer technology of CES 2008 is how the company is in discussions with a bunch of well-know OEMs already. So far, Samsung and LG are building the company's technology into its displays and DisplayLink is having conversations with most of the other well-known display makers. The same goes for system manufacturers.

Given the potential for DisplayLink to become a defacto standard and how Farzeneh's company could end up in an incredibly powerful and lucrative position as a result, the company is considering opening up a portion of its stack for royalty-free use so that other companies can innovate on top of it."

[orange1] 07/1/2008 18:31

Why not cheer yourself up by entering the sweepstake for the Dislaylink adapter?:

[rivaldo] 07/1/2008 15:53

No probs bitochon. I agree a discount is justifiable, but the current discount is simply overdone imho - and if a third was written off the portfolio (which it won't be) then there would be no reason for a discount to the resulting 90p NAV of anything more than a small amount given there would have been a kitchen-sink job.

It's all pointless guesswork anyway. Either the portfolio will produce a revaluation event/exit or three in the future or they won't. At least the recent independent third party funding round valuations back up the valuations, and further the dollar exchange rate is moving in PDT's favour and should continue to do so.

[bitochon] 07/1/2008 11:59

Thanks for your thoughts Riv.

[timtom2] 07/1/2008 10:02

If they did write off a 1/3rd then the share price would also fall to give a discount to the new NAV. I don't see how this management can eliminate a discount? A discount looks perfectly justifiable to me - just the amount is in question.

[jtjh] 07/1/2008 09:47

Good to see that we are getting some active debate on the likely outcome for the portfolio companies and it helps to balance the upbeat assessments on the other thread!! What does amaze me is the emphasis on NAV when it is simply a tool to show how much people have paid for a stake and is certainly not a guide to any future value.
It was interesting to hear of your contacts with management RL - I have stated before how underwhelmed I was with my contact - but I usually find that such behaviour oftens finds its nemesis.
I must be a fool as I still have some shares, although I've written off most of their value.

[rivaldo] 07/1/2008 09:41

Hi bitochon - views as requested! I rarely look at the other thread as from experience it's usually whingeing about the same old gripes, of which one or two are justifiable (management charges for example) but most seem to be by ex-holders who intuitively want to get the price down as low as possible to re-enter :o))

As I said above, De Novo and Sciona do look vulnerable to me, but the amounts involved now are small and may be partly salvageable anyway, particularly given that Sciona is revenue-earning and has received large backing from DSM. I also note that RL has missed Kiadis' 15m Euro summer funding. There is also no comment on DisplayLink, Xmos, GreenPeak, Oxford Immunotec, Polatis, Phyworks, dismissive write-offs of ZBD etc etc....

The truth is that some companies will go under and some will thrive - the saying goes that "the lemons ripen before the apples", and hopefully that means most of the wheat has been sorted from the chaff long ago.

To repeat, most of the portfolio has received third party funding in the last year or so, justifying current valuations. Yet PDT could write off a third of its current 136p NAV and would still only be trading at NAV at the current share price.

[timtom2] 07/1/2008 08:38

I can't argue. The technology looks great - that is the basis of my "portfolio looks better". DisplayLink is good.

I sold out a short while back > 110p after hlding through the cash back and having bought in close to the bottom some time ago. Looks like one of my few good moves.

Have a watching brief - I do think some fundamental changes are needed to address the management charges at the very least.

[russianlinesman] 07/1/2008 08:13

Interesting to hear what you say about the portfolio. I am aware that Rivaldo keeps up his work on the other thread, and would not want to party poop on the PDT info thread, but here's how I interpret the interim report (admit I am 2 months behind)

DeNovo - requires further funding - all previous PDT companies which have been said to 'require further funding' have not survived. PDT have been bailing out DeNovo for nearly 10 years. Time to die.

Sciona - likely need for further funding - revenues well down - if successful then likely subject to more regulation - can't see any reason why its fortunes should improve. To me, doomed.

SiConnect - difficult to attract new investors - management wish to merge/sell. Nice idea, but markets in 2008 mean buyers can pick and choose, and who would want to merge with a loss-making company, other than another loss-making company. Sorry, see this one as doomed too.

Kiadis - PDT invested in anticipation of a 15m Euro funding round - this seems not to have taken place (did I miss this?) and they wanted to IPO instead, which failed. Failed IPOs don't have a great record of coming back, as investors are rightly suspicious of why they didn't IPO in the first place. Maybe the fundraising goes ahead, but maybe funders are similarly nervous of the failed IPO. Jury out, not doomed, but not looking that clever.

M-spatial - actively exploring funding strategies, including merger or sale - code for not doing very well. Probably missed its chance and overtaken now by google maps etc.

Lime - invested £250k. Don't know about this, but when they start investing small amounts like that, it's usually a tiding over in the hope things get better (or new funding round is complete). Maybe am prejudiced in view of the previous companies listed, but we'll see.

Finally, on ZBD, the largest investment, supermarkets are probably in for a tough year and am not sure that shelf labelling is something they'll be that keen to invest capex on. Presumably the retailers got their trials for free, so whilst good news that the technology is in the market, history is littered with decent technology that nobody was prepared to pay for.

As I say, am not following the portfolio actively anymore, but that's just how I read the report. Could be some bitter old investor bias in here (and I guess I never really recovered from getting a letter from Wansbrook telling me basically to p1ss off).

Obviously I have nothing against shareholders of PDT, to whom I wish all the best. Management is another issue.

[fse] 06/1/2008 20:44

TimTom...well thats just been the problem here as the sh*t mkt conditions for the last several years have created a no go environment for floating anything off.
I am in the same position with seed cap investments I made back in 2000 still unable to IPO.
I dont blame PDT for this but I do object to their astronomic management charges when the performance and the money are not there to pay them.
Essentially they are stealing from Investors.

The Portfolio looks very strong but something needs to be done to get some of this stuff away. At least they are not buying into any new long term ventures.

[timtom2] 06/1/2008 20:38

What use is any exhibition to PDT if they can't release value?

[orange1] 06/1/2008 19:30

DisplayLink to Exhibit at 2008 International CES at Booth A-163 South Hall Registration

DisplayLink, along with its consumer electronics partners Alereon, Kensington, IOGEAR, LG, Samsung, and Toshiba are bringing multi-monitor computing to the mainstream by showing the latest network display products and technology at the 2008 International CES.

DisplayLink will have a kiosk (Booth A-163) in the CES registration area in the South Hall where it will treat attendees to an interactive network display demo that will show the ease of use and spectacular performance of its USB graphics technology, and provide an opportunity to take home one of 1,500 USB graphics adapters in the ultimate home gear giveaway.

About DisplayLink DisplayLink Corp. is a network display chip and software company that creates simple connections between computers and displays – via USB, making the benefits of expanded visual workspace available to everyone. Using universally accepted wired or wireless networking protocols and proprietary software compression techniques, graphically rich content can be transmitted easily between a single device and multiple displays and enjoyed in a more organized and productive way.

Leading global manufacturers have integrated network display technology into an array of consumer electronics including USB-enabled monitors, video docking stations and display adapters. Because of the unique ability to unleash content from hardware to multiple screens, an array of innovative devices is on the horizon.

Founded in 2003, DisplayLink's venture backers include Atlas Venture, Benchmark Capital, DAG Ventures and DFJ Esprit. The company is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA, with main R&D and product development activities in Cambridge, UK.

[bitochon] 06/1/2008 16:47

Rivaldo, I trust you've seen russianlinesman's comment on the other PDT thread. If I remember correctly he used to be a fan of the company. I'd be most interested in your comment. Thanks and regards, B.

[timtom2] 04/1/2008 16:16

rl - I think the portfolio has actually improved BUT have to agree with the rest of you post especially concerning the ability of management and the idiculaous payouts they have taken.

The #'s speak for themselves.

[rivaldo] 04/1/2008 14:47

Nope :o))

I see CES 2008 starts next week in Las Vegas - I'd expect to see some news from DisplayLink for a start, maybe some others if we're lucky.

At this price PDT trades at less than two-thirds of the 136p NAV. So (bluntly)even if you were to write off a third of the portfolio you'd still be trading at NAV.

Interesting also to note that a large part of the portfolio has been valued on the basis of external/independent funding rounds in the last year - DisplayLink, Xmos, Kiadis, ZBD, GreenPeak, M-Spatial, VirtualLogix, Oxford Immunotec, Tribold, Lime etc etc.

The weak links as I see it are Sciona and De Novo, but even they aren't worth much now and look salvageable to some extent, particularly Sciona with the investment from DSM.

Only for those with patience of course!

[russianlinesman] 04/1/2008 13:21

Hello. I see there is a new thread for Prelude to a ten-bagger these days.

Fortunately I sold out of this some time ago, and was just checking back in to see what was going on. Reading the interim report, seems to me that maybe another 3 or 4 of the portfolio could go bust this year, and I don't see any Alphamosaic's or DRI's to bail them out. ZBD is probably toppy in valuation as well.

Management has taken 51million, managed it into 40 million, and taken over 10 million out in fees, some of which was success-related (success in terms of unrealised gains which they never realised, OXB, NCH, CNS etc). Investor relations was very disappointing and they have never closed the gap to NAV, and the cynical amongst us saw the re-investing of Alpha, DRI and co as a means of preserving jobs for another 5 years.

Reading the portfolio afresh today, looks like potential for a real horror story, probably worse than at any time since I first invested in PDT 8 years ago.

Wishing remaining holders good luck, IMHo you'll be needing it.

Happy NY

RL