Prelude Trust Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 02/1/2008 19:18

Yes no doubt it has been.

Looks like you have SOLD OUT .

For me this IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY.

[timtom2] 02/1/2008 17:34

I have been. Massive erosion in shareholder value. Look what they have to achieve just to close the discount to NAV not to mention lost dividends if the money had been put into anyone of dozens of other shares with a yield.

This a jolly for the Directors.

[hvs] 02/1/2008 15:40

You watch .

[pinkfish] 02/1/2008 14:00

How do they get to release the value? That is the question.

[hvs] 02/1/2008 08:14

An uptick today.

Has this been tipped ?

[hvs] 01/1/2008 19:45

It is frustrating and it is an act of faith.

The portfolio looks good and hopefully over the next two years we will have very good profitable exits which will allow share buy backs.

Any investment is an act of faith , although alittle more so here in view of
start ups , but patience will pay off.

Not time to sell.

[hvs] 01/1/2008 11:19

When the so called "Pundits" are scared its the right time to buy.

Anyone buying PDT at this ridiculous price will not GO WRONG.

There is a lot of value in the portfolio and most companies are well funded.

[pinkfish] 01/1/2008 08:41

Perhaps if 3i took a look at PDT it may be a good end to this story.

[cerrito] 01/1/2008 01:23

Read this FT article and was reminded about PDT's sp

quote
Credit squeeze casts cloud over biotech

By Salamander Davoudi

Published: December 31 2007 01:20 | Last updated: December 31 2007 01:20

"Fewer pounds, far fewer deals."

This is how one analyst sums up the biotechnology sector following the dearth of initial public offerings this year and a lack of notable deals in the second half.

In 2006, there were 11 IPOs in the sector but this year has seen only four. The financing environment for cash-strapped biotechs, analysts say, could not be more challenging given the turbulence in the credit markets.


"It has been a very difficult year, even more difficult than a year ago," says William Powlett Smith, a partner at Ernst & Young.

"This credit crunch has frozen a lot of decisions; people are thinking about other priorities. It is not a good climate to raise money by IPO or by other means."

Observers say changes in appetite for risk mean that fund managers' interest in biotech has waned. Their scepticism towards the sector is being stoked further by the large number of underperforming biotech stocks on Aim, London's junior market.

Shares in many of these companies have drifted downwards, in contrast with those on the main market, which have experienced far less volatility.

The specialist investor base has also shrunk because returns have been so mixed. Apax no longer invests in biotechnology stocks, while Schroder Ventures largely focuses on US investments.

Many of the companies that achieved a listing over the past 18 months have not been pure biotechnology companies.

Instead, the new arrivals on the stock market have tended to be medical technology groups, which have business models that promise to deliver profits far more quickly.

Of the companies that listed this year, Neuro-pharm, which is developing treatments for the central nervous system, and Northwest Biotherapeutics, which is promising the world's first therapeutic vaccine for brain cancer, were pure biotech companies.

Over the past six months, these two companies have seen their share prices rise by one per cent and 25 per cent respectively.

Early-stage biotech companies are riskier and require more capital to move products through development. In the UK, such firms need to return to investors on a regular basis to raise extra funding.

Figures compiled by Nomura Code show many UK biotechs have enough cash to last about a year, but many will need to refinance within 18 months.

Navid Malik, an analyst at Collins Stewart, says: "I see a lot of private companies and small plcs struggling to address their funding needs.

"Liquidity has dried up. Fund managers are too scared to deploy cash. Venture capitalists are locked up and facing a credit issue themselves. Pressure is building."

The first half of the year saw more activity, with a series of large commercial deals including biotech companies Renovo – co-founded by Mark Ferguson – Oxford Biomedica and Antisoma, and the European markets have proved very healthy. Last month, Ablynx, the Belgian biotech company, listed on Euronext raising €75m (£55.5m).

But the "buy case" for the UK biotechnology sector is being hampered by an increasingly conservative regulation.

Industry executives say the US Food and Drug Administration is proving too risk-averse, delaying the approval of new medicines by requesting extended late-stage clinical trials on larger groups of patients for longer periods. This has been even more the case since the withdrawal of Vioxx, Merck's painkiller, in 2004.

"This is scaring investors," says Mr Malik.

If the large numbers of small start-up companies are to gain access to the capital markets, experts say, they will need to diversify.

"I am telling every company to... think about what they can do to strategically position themselves and create critical mass," says Mr Malik.

"If they don't manage this successfully they will have to merge," says David Wilson, chief executive of Piper Jaffray, the US bank.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

[pinkfish] 01/1/2008 00:03

They are fighting the market.

IPO's difficult, buyouts problematic due to $ (mostly US acquirers) and poor historical performance.

Great looking portfolio but that's not enough.

[jtjh] 31/12/2007 12:21

It appears from the share price direction that there is more bad news on the way. I wasn't impressed by some of the original management team and I was hoping that the enlarged team would bring more focus and discipline - I'm still waiting!!

[hvs] 24/12/2007 12:42

Hi Riv,

Have a very good Xmas.

[timtom2] 20/12/2007 21:04

I'll wait a little longer and if I miss the bus so be it.
Good Luck All.

[hvs] 20/12/2007 08:52

There are a lot of funds looking into buying BioScience companies.

I think Kiadis are doing very well and will be worth a lot more 6-12 months down the line.

I am very happ holding PDT. There is so much going on.

[rivaldo] 19/12/2007 22:57

There's nowt more to be said TT2, no point in going over the same ground again and again! Either there will be revaluation/realisation events or there won't, and they may come in one month or two or three years. So either you buy and have patience or buy something else. Problem solved :o))

More good news from Kiadis today - the question is whether all this news is enough to get the IPO back on track. The pipeline is worth a look as it's pretty impressive. One product now in Phase 3, four in Phase 2 and one in Phase 1 must surely be worth a fair bit more more than the PDT valuation of £47m (PDT own 6%)?:



"Kiadis Pharma reports successful End of Phase II Meeting with FDA for Reviroc; the FDA offers Special Protocol Assesment for Reviroc (NL version) | go back

Kiadis Pharma announced today that it has successfully completed an End of Phase II meeting for Reviroc with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Reviroc is under development for elimination of cancer cells from an autologous graft in bone marrow transplantations for end-stage blood cancer patients. The FDA agreed that the data from the completed phase II clinical Reviroc trial is sufficient to support the start of a phase III study and offered Kiadis Pharma its Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) procedure allowing Kiadis Pharma to work directly with the FDA to optimize the clinical design of the trial.

The FDA meeting followed the successful completion of a multi center phase II study for Reviroc showing an improved overall survival after autologous bone marrow transplantation in Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients. The phase III clinical trial design for Reviroc will focus on patients with Large B cell lymphoma. Kiadis Pharma anticipates filing of the IND, SPA request and Orphan Drug Designation application with the FDA within the next few weeks.

"We are very pleased with the outcome of the End of Phase II meeting with the FDA and with the possibility to access the FDA's Special Protocol Assessment program. Together with the strong support by our principal investigators we are well prepared to design a clear path towards marketing authorization for Reviroc", said Manja Bouman, CEO Kiadis Pharma."

[timtom2] 17/12/2007 10:50

Have been tempted to jump back in but I can't see what could stop the rot here.
At least a move sideways for a while perhaps but something tells me more weakness is on the cards?

Outside of the portfolio which I agree looks useful - what could change fortunes at PDT. Looks like just more of the same to me?

[hvs] 15/12/2007 12:01

Hi riv,

I have just been accumulating.

Thank you very much for your posts. Maybe I was a little earlty but better than being late.

Its all buildintg up very very nicely.

[rivaldo] 15/12/2007 11:29

Good news for Kiadis:



"ATIR Classified as "Cell Based" Medicinal Product by the EMEA
A Classification for Innovative New Treatments

AMSTERDAM, December 14, 2007 /PRNewswire/ -- Kiadis Pharma announced today that its lead product ATIR has received approval for regulatory classification as a "cell based" medicinal product by the Innovation Task Force (ITF), a division of the European Medicines Agency (EMEA). Based upon this regulatory classification ATIR is eligible for EMEA procedures. As a next step Kiadis Pharma will file for orphan drug designation with the EMEA to obtain additional product protection upon marketing approval. In November this year ATIR has been granted orphan drug designation by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

ATIR is under development to prevent acute Graft versus Host Disease (GvHD) allowing the use of a mismatched donor for bone marrow transplantations. It's a personalized cell-based treatment prepared according to a proprietary protocol using both a novel small molecule substance and a proprietary medical device. With the official classification of ATIR as a cell based medicinal product by the EMEA, it's now categorized as an Advanced Therapy and considered to be a highly innovative treatment. The benefits are a centralized marketing authorization procedure, which harmonizes and facilitates access to the European market. In addition, it provides access to an expert Committee for Advanced Therapies within the EMEA, to address scientific, legal and regulatory issues during product development.

"We are very pleased having received a cell based medicinal product classification for ATIR. The regulatory guidelines that will rule ATIR are therefore clear and we have subsequently started with the application of the orphan drug designation with the EMEA which will be filed before the end of this year", said Manja Bouman, CEO Kiadis Pharma."

And a looooong article about powerlines re Siconnect:


Extract:
"Let me clarify a key issue regarding the different coexistence proposals discussed at IEEE P1901. As of today, the most mature proposal for solving the coexistence issue has been authored by engineers of DS2, Panasonic, and several other members of UPA and CEPCA [Consumer Electronics Powerline Communication Alliance] like Mitsubishi Electric and SiConnect. This proposal is the result of almost two years of hard work between all these companies. It includes well-defined mechanisms for achieving coexistence between access and in-home systems, and between different in-home systems. The proposal includes well-defined common signals that can be understood by otherwise incompatible OFDM and Wavelet systems. It also includes mechanisms for coexistence with non-P1901 and legacy devices. It is a very good specification, and we are very proud of the work we have done along with the rest of the industry."

[rivaldo] 13/12/2007 22:30

A couple of Xmos stories:



"Bristol-based XMOS Semiconductor was named as Start-up of the Year"



"Digital signal processing is finding its way into ever more products. Steve Rogerson looks at the various ways designers are handling this.

From mobile phones and portable music players to top-end medical scanners the demand for digital signal processing power continues to soar, yet fewer companies are using standard, off-the-shelf DSPs for their signal processing applications. In part this is due to the ever increasing power of main computer microprocessors from the likes of Intel and customisable processors, whether ASICs or FPGAs for example. Some even combine standard DSPs with other functions to form application specific standard products (ASSPs).

According to Richard Terrill, VP of marketing for Xmos, "The interesting thing with DSPs is that there are a lot of people doing signal processing but don't know it because they are not using a standard DSP chip from the likes of Texas Instruments or Xilinx. They are manipulating or massaging data, sometimes at a very low level but in a way that is crucial to the success of the system."

This is partly because many associate signal processing with long instruction sets rather than the much broader level of less strenuous applications. Take security systems, for example. The explosion in the number of CCTV cameras has led to a need for a lot more local signal processing built into the camera as the expectation is for the cameras to look for and analyse certain patterns and then send appropriate alerts.

One problem with such applications is that they often need changing in the field, sometimes after operating for weeks or months. There may be a need to look for something different as the security threat alters. Modifying the hardware can be prohibitively expensive in such cases, which is why some are looking at software-defined silicon."

[rivaldo] 11/12/2007 21:06

Ta bitochon, nice to have a bit of appreciation, and I can perfectly see your viewpoint.

I just happen to think that quality usually wins out. In which case PDT's current share price is a shadow of what it should be given the NAV and the quality of the portfolio. Whether realisations occur through acquisitions or IPOs, or NAV rises through valuation uplifts, it seems to me that the m/cap at £30m just far too low.

Xmos, DisplayLink, ZBD, Oxford Immunotec, Polatis, Phyworks, Kiadis, M-Spatial, Tribold, VirtualLogix, perhaps now Siconnect - all these are companies which apparently are either flourishing as relatively late stage investments or potential world-beaters.

In addition, much of PDT's portfolio NAV has now been justified in valuation terms by external fundraisings in the last year to 18 months. I think it might be worth a quick exercise to see just how much.

In the meantime DisplayLink goes from strength to strength:



"DisplayLink and Alereon Announce World's First Wireless USB Graphics Adapter
WiMedia-Certified AL5000 Chipset Enables High-Quality Wireless Displays

PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--DisplayLink and Alereon today jointly announced the availability of a reference design for a Wireless USB display adapter that allows PCs to connect to nearby standard displays without wires while delivering beautiful image quality and instantaneously interactive performance.

The reference design enables PC accessory OEMs to easily develop wireless display connectivity adapters and similar products. It will be demonstrated publicly by Alereon at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2008) from Jan. 7-12, 2008 in Las Vegas, NV, in the WiMedia Pavilion (WiMedia Booth South Hall 3 – Booth# 31642) and in the Wireless USB Pavilion (South Hall 4 – Booth# 35625).

The reference design pairs Alereon's Worldwide WiMedia Alliance®-certified AL5000 chipset with DisplayLink's network display technology to provide a solution that achieves the high image quality and the performance of wired displays without the wires. In addition, this is the only adapter design available that allows manufacturers to produce a Wireless USB adapter that meets all regulatory requirements across the globe.

The design uses Wireless USB to deliver fast ultra-wideband (UWB) speeds using a standard wireless USB input and output resolutions up to 1680 x 1050 and 16.7 million colors with smooth DVD video playback and quick responsiveness.

"A display connected using this wireless reference design feels and looks to a user exactly like a wired display," said Hamid Farzaneh, DisplayLink president and CEO. "As evidenced by the proliferation of wireless mice and keyboards, the availability of the technology to bring the same freedom to monitors is just what OEMs need to spur explosive growth in this market."

Because the design is based on Alereon's Worldwide WiMedia Alliance-certified AL5000 chipset, products based on it will be compatible with future Wireless USB-enabled notebook computers from major PC vendors.

"Providing a standards-based design is critical for our OEM partners so they can be assured of compatibility with broadly available laptops and notebooks," said Eric Broockman, CEO of Alereon. "Our partners require the combination of standards-based wireless technology, exceptional throughput and worldwide footprint to achieve mass adoption."

Alereon's AL5000 Worldwide Wireless USB chipset integrates all of the essential RF circuitry, including synthesizer VCO/PLL, anti-alias filters, LNAs and transmit/receive (T/R) switches, Media Access Controller (MAC) and Baseband Processor (BBP). The chipset is bundled with all the firmware and software drivers necessary to develop a worldwide Wireless USB product covering the entire WiMedia spectrum from 3.1 GHz to 10.6 GHz. The AL5000 Worldwide Wireless USB chipset is the only available chipset that meets all regulatory requirements worldwide.

DisplayLink technology is comprised of high-performance Hardware Rendering Engine (HRE) network display chips and Virtual Graphics Card (VGC) software that power high-quality, fully interactive 32-bit true-color graphics with real-time video playback across a USB link. They are designed for monitor manufacturers, PC OEMs and PC accessory companies who want to develop easy to use high performance products such as USB-connected monitors, video-capable USB laptop docking stations, Skype video phones, picture frames and other devices. The company's adaptive compression algorithm and graphics protocol can also transmit graphics over other standard network interfaces, including wireless USB, Ethernet or Wi-Fi."

More info here:



"DisplayLink's certainly no stranger to wireless monitors, but it now looks set to push the technology even further along, with it and Alereon trotting out a new reference design for a wireless USB video card (and corresponding monitor adapter). That'll apparently let you use a monitor at a distance of up to three meters, with a throughput of 120-150mbps and lossless compression ensuring that "the image users see is the same that they'd get with a wired monitor," according to Wi-Fi Planet. What's more, you should also be able to use up to six displays at the same time, "theoretically," although DisplayLink admits that gamers likely won't be satisfied. While this is just a reference design, DisplayLink says the final adapter set should run between $150 and $250 when its released in the spring, while monitors with the technology built-in will apparently demand $150 "or more" than a comparable non-wireless model (those are expected in mid-2008)."

[timtom2] 11/12/2007 20:31

bitochon - your summary is exactly how I have felt about it too. What will light the blue touch paper? Even if the blue-touch paper is lit £2 is some way off. IPO's may be a little problematic for a while and buy-outs by US Tech groups will also be less than firthcoming given the $ - all be it the £ is due to fall. So where/how will the value be released?

[bitochon] 11/12/2007 19:08

Thanks rivaldo for all your efforts on behalf of us silent shareholders. I had a substantial number of shares (for me that is)in this company, having first purchased in 2000 at £1.73. Whilst the underlying investments have always looked good this trust has come bottom or near to bottom in its group over the last 3,5,10 year periods. Even compared to an average general investment trust the returns to date are appalling. I have sold some recently to buy MDX and CRA. I fail to see the catalyst that will bring this share any where near the £2 that the company raised funds at some years back.

No doubt hvs et al will blow me out of the water. I have no problem with that, everyone is entitled to their opinion. However, whilst the past is no guide to the future, would you re elect a Chancellor who has the same track record as PDT?

Despite my negative sentiments I still have quite a holding and live in hope that one day................