Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[toffeeman] 19/4/2002 16:56

If Nigel Wray has anything to do with this company I would exit asap.

Value destroyer supreme

[argy2] 19/4/2002 16:47

If there is a large seller of shares in a small company then he/she may have to accept a price well below that in the market.To this end certain individuals or companies such as Licensed Dealers are known buyers of such stakes and are regularly approached by MMs/Brokers.NW is one such buyer.

[thamestrader] 19/4/2002 15:59

Sorry for being totally thick and all that, but HOW can he do it "legally through cheap offerings?" Can you, I, everybody do likewise?

Buying yesterday at 12.25p and selling at today's bid price of 17p is simply too good to be true. (He hasn't sold, but presumably he could if he wanted to).

Obviously I'm missing something blatantly obvious, but then it is late on a Friday afternoon.

[boyinblue] 19/4/2002 14:17

NW made his first million buying penny shares cheaper than the average punter,although in those days it was allegedly ahead of tips in his Penny Share Guide.Seems old habits die hard.Difference is now he can do it legally through cheap offerings below the market price.

[thamestrader] 19/4/2002 13:56

How could he buy at 12.25p when the price yesterday was 16/18p?
Was it a straightforward "buy", or was there more/less to it than meets the eye? Shares/options?

Put it this way, if the price is 12.25p, I'll have some too.

[rcturner2] 19/4/2002 08:08

RNS - "The Company has also today been notified that Mr Nigel Wray yesterday purchased
2,990,000 ordinary shares in the Company at 12.25p each and now has a beneficial
interest in 3,448,000 ordinary shares, representing approximately 4.85 per cent
of the issued ordinary share capital."

Very good news IMHO. Nigel Wray is one to follow.

[thamestrader] 18/4/2002 13:40

Anyone know what these huge trades are, well below the bid price?

[theophilus] 13/4/2002 00:44

12.2! And that based on a price of 15.5!

The PE at the moment is listed as 6.0, at a price of 18 or so.

So do Shares Mag. see a fall in profits? I'm not sure that I understand their figures, although I haven't seen the article.

What do they mean by "This year". Propan has just ended its year, 2001-2002 due to report in July or so.

So strictly speaking this year could be 2002-2003. The apparent fall in profits (or increase in PE) could reflect something of a new emphasis away from just housebuilder which they have previously hinted at and which the recent acquisition might be the beginning of.

They may not have a great deal of income initially from the acquisition and certainly have taken on a large amount of debt. I don't know what are the interest terms on the debt. So very much in the dark as we look ahead.

Does Shares Mag answer any of these points.

Cheers

Th.

[nigelsom] 13/4/2002 00:13

Article in Shares mag today gives a positive outlook suggesting a p/e around 12.2 for this year (based on share price of 15.5), and a bullish view on the recent acquistion. This might explain mm willingness to bump up the price on a small amount of trade early in the day.

[hilly] 12/4/2002 19:00

nigelsom - well done, sorting out the inaccuracy... still looks good...

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 17:34

TH: me too, but looking at the trades today, I would say there had been a spot of profit taking going on. Under those circumstances by the very fact that they held their ground at the close of play we could see another wave upwards next week....I hope >:)

[theophilus] 12/4/2002 16:45

Thanks Nigel

But I would have been happier if Propan had managed to hang on to some of their gains.

Th.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 15:26

And the reply is: yes, they got it wrong! The profit figure was pre tax, so the P/E should have been 5.46 (based on 17.5p share price). Now we're all happy :-)

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 14:47

I've emailed Shares. Will post reply in due course.
N.

[theophilus] 12/4/2002 14:41

Nigel

Sorry you post crossed with mine. At least the puzzle is solved and I feel a bit better with your revised PE.

Cheers

Th.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 14:33

OK I think I've solved the problem! According to ADVFN there are 61.43 million shares in issue. Shares mag predicts profits of £2.93 million, which works out at about 5p per shares, giving a PE (based on 19p per share) of 3.98. So Shares Mag was talking out of it's rear end (and consequently so was I).

[rcturner2] 12/4/2002 13:32

I think that there has been an increase in the number of shares in issue, but if that PE is correct, I am not impressed. It implies a fall in earnings.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 13:11

They go to print tues as far as I know, so they aren't up to date with the jump in the last few days. The P/E estimate is for the year just ended (sorry), figs in July. The P/E listed is the historic p/e. I'm not sure of the dates, but was the flotation on AIM after the 2000/2001 year end? If so then that would explain the disparity in that figure, as it's market cap is rather larger now, but the earnings on which historic P/E is calculated are fixed at last year. I hope that answers more questions than it raises!

The article quotes 'current estimates' for a rise in pre-tax profits (July results) of 50% on the back of a 65% increase in turnover, profits of £2.93 mil. and goes on 'but the real boost is likely to come as a result of its latest acquisition.' It then gives some waffle about how new companies have been out of favour but that the 24% gain since September lows 'seems likely to continue'.

If that level of growth is right, and a continuation in to the next few years at that rate seems plausible, I'd say this looks good. But we will have to wait for the real results rather than rely on speculation to make a proper judgement. All IMHO, of course.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 10:42

Perhaps a bid in the offing? Can't reaaly see any other reason for the recent rise. Also 200/50 day MA look like heading for a cross-over on the upside: I'm not much of a chartist and ot doesn't work so well for small illiquid stocks, but I gather that it is usually a good sign. Will watch this one carefully. I bought in at 22p around the time of the flotation fully expecting it to be taken out by Artisan. The price bounced high enough last summer to have taken a small profit. I hope I'll get another bite at the cherry.

edit: just ticked down on no more trades, but in fact it was just the spread getting a touch wider. Buy price remains the same, sell has dropped.

[theophilus] 12/4/2002 10:32

Yes up 1.5 to 19 which is good.

Slightly higher volume at 17,000, but as you say negligible really.

Strange that such large volume in the past has had such little effect on the share price.

I can sum up my mood as pleased but a little nervous.

Re. the results I haven't seen anything to suggest that they will be much earlier than last year which was at the beginning of July.

Cheers

Th.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 10:02

Up another 1.5p today, and its not even 10am, on the back of just 12000 shares bought. ie just over £2000. Are the mm's short of stock, or is something going on? Anyone know when results are expected?

[rcturner2] 12/4/2002 09:55

Up again!

Results must be good - only explanation.

[theophilus] 12/4/2002 00:03

Just going back to the interims and the chairman's statement.

The 6 months profits to 30 Sept. showed a healthy increase.

Then the chairman stated, "I would expect most of the turnover and profit for the year to come in the second half."

This statement was made 26th. Nov so well after 9/11 and any short term slowdown that resulted from that.

Since that date nearly all housebuilders have been positive in their results and comments. The housing market has been very firm despite earlier suggestions of a possible slow down. Halifax and Nationwide have upped their forecast increase in house prices for the year to about 10%. In most areas their are more buyers than houses for sale.

Interest rates are still low and the chairman also commented, "To date the Group has not had to offer any incentives to buyers."

One problem that some housebuilders have commented on is the delay in getting planning permission. But Propan has concentrated on the brown field sites where this is not so much of a problem.

He also stated, "All the sites expected to be sold during the current financial year have planning consent and are in the course of construction.".

My own comment would be that I am as positive as it is possible to be, given the lack of any adverse indications; and so this year and the coming year should be good ones for the Group.

This is not one of my major holdings but it should be able to give a reasonable boost to my portfolio.

Cheers

Th.

[theophilus] 11/4/2002 23:41

Hi bsg,

Point taken. That is of course one way of looking at things.

However if I had 12M shares and there was a chance of the price moving up then I MAY not be in too much of a hurry to sell.

The price has moved up recently from under 14 earlier this year despite the overhang of the Artesian share holding suggesting that there is some impetus to the upward move. But as you say the Artesian share holding may well be a negative influence on the share price causing it to rise more slowly than would otherwise be the case.

At least that's what I hope is how things are :-)

Cheers

M.