Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 13:33

OK I think I've solved the problem! According to ADVFN there are 61.43 million shares in issue. Shares mag predicts profits of £2.93 million, which works out at about 5p per shares, giving a PE (based on 19p per share) of 3.98. So Shares Mag was talking out of it's rear end (and consequently so was I).

[rcturner2] 12/4/2002 12:32

I think that there has been an increase in the number of shares in issue, but if that PE is correct, I am not impressed. It implies a fall in earnings.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 12:11

They go to print tues as far as I know, so they aren't up to date with the jump in the last few days. The P/E estimate is for the year just ended (sorry), figs in July. The P/E listed is the historic p/e. I'm not sure of the dates, but was the flotation on AIM after the 2000/2001 year end? If so then that would explain the disparity in that figure, as it's market cap is rather larger now, but the earnings on which historic P/E is calculated are fixed at last year. I hope that answers more questions than it raises!

The article quotes 'current estimates' for a rise in pre-tax profits (July results) of 50% on the back of a 65% increase in turnover, profits of £2.93 mil. and goes on 'but the real boost is likely to come as a result of its latest acquisition.' It then gives some waffle about how new companies have been out of favour but that the 24% gain since September lows 'seems likely to continue'.

If that level of growth is right, and a continuation in to the next few years at that rate seems plausible, I'd say this looks good. But we will have to wait for the real results rather than rely on speculation to make a proper judgement. All IMHO, of course.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 09:42

Perhaps a bid in the offing? Can't reaaly see any other reason for the recent rise. Also 200/50 day MA look like heading for a cross-over on the upside: I'm not much of a chartist and ot doesn't work so well for small illiquid stocks, but I gather that it is usually a good sign. Will watch this one carefully. I bought in at 22p around the time of the flotation fully expecting it to be taken out by Artisan. The price bounced high enough last summer to have taken a small profit. I hope I'll get another bite at the cherry.

edit: just ticked down on no more trades, but in fact it was just the spread getting a touch wider. Buy price remains the same, sell has dropped.

[theophilus] 12/4/2002 09:32

Yes up 1.5 to 19 which is good.

Slightly higher volume at 17,000, but as you say negligible really.

Strange that such large volume in the past has had such little effect on the share price.

I can sum up my mood as pleased but a little nervous.

Re. the results I haven't seen anything to suggest that they will be much earlier than last year which was at the beginning of July.

Cheers

Th.

[nigelsom] 12/4/2002 09:02

Up another 1.5p today, and its not even 10am, on the back of just 12000 shares bought. ie just over £2000. Are the mm's short of stock, or is something going on? Anyone know when results are expected?

[rcturner2] 12/4/2002 08:55

Up again!

Results must be good - only explanation.

[theophilus] 11/4/2002 23:03

Just going back to the interims and the chairman's statement.

The 6 months profits to 30 Sept. showed a healthy increase.

Then the chairman stated, "I would expect most of the turnover and profit for the year to come in the second half."

This statement was made 26th. Nov so well after 9/11 and any short term slowdown that resulted from that.

Since that date nearly all housebuilders have been positive in their results and comments. The housing market has been very firm despite earlier suggestions of a possible slow down. Halifax and Nationwide have upped their forecast increase in house prices for the year to about 10%. In most areas their are more buyers than houses for sale.

Interest rates are still low and the chairman also commented, "To date the Group has not had to offer any incentives to buyers."

One problem that some housebuilders have commented on is the delay in getting planning permission. But Propan has concentrated on the brown field sites where this is not so much of a problem.

He also stated, "All the sites expected to be sold during the current financial year have planning consent and are in the course of construction.".

My own comment would be that I am as positive as it is possible to be, given the lack of any adverse indications; and so this year and the coming year should be good ones for the Group.

This is not one of my major holdings but it should be able to give a reasonable boost to my portfolio.

Cheers

Th.

[theophilus] 11/4/2002 22:41

Hi bsg,

Point taken. That is of course one way of looking at things.

However if I had 12M shares and there was a chance of the price moving up then I MAY not be in too much of a hurry to sell.

The price has moved up recently from under 14 earlier this year despite the overhang of the Artesian share holding suggesting that there is some impetus to the upward move. But as you say the Artesian share holding may well be a negative influence on the share price causing it to rise more slowly than would otherwise be the case.

At least that's what I hope is how things are :-)

Cheers

M.

[bsg] 11/4/2002 18:27

RCTurner2 if you were left holding 12M shares that you bought for 12.5p what would you do, I would try and sell them at 18p. There has been very little volume on this for some time.

[theophilus] 11/4/2002 15:41

Well anyway up 2 at the close to 17.5 the highest these have been since September

Cheers

Th.

[rcturner2] 11/4/2002 15:17

They wouldn't be putting the price up like that if there was an overhang!!

More likely the overhang has cleared and there are now buyers wanting to get in ahead of the results who "know something".

[bsg] 11/4/2002 14:54

There's a big overhang in stock from ART selling their lot, maybe they're just trying to offload those.

[rcturner2] 11/4/2002 12:32

Thanks Theo. I topped up a couple of days ago, and glad I did now. This sort of rise before the results is usually good news in my experience.

[theophilus] 11/4/2002 10:10

Now up 1 to 16.5.

Some large bargins going through, almost 1m altogther. Advfn does not show whether these were sells or buys but the two large ones were about 15.25.

Just now a 15,000 has gone through as a sell at 15.5.

About the results, all the indications are that they should be good, but the compnay is being rather tight-lipped about current trading. I suppose that we just have to wait and see.

Cheers

Th.

[rcturner2] 11/4/2002 08:38

Up again, without any trades.

Anybody out there want to comment? Does it mean the results are good?

[rcturner2] 10/4/2002 13:25

And now some buys, after the price rise?!

[rcturner2] 10/4/2002 10:03

Some funny old trading going on.

They drop the offer price, presumably to get buyers. 1 buy and plenty of sells. Today they stick the offer back up and a 50k sell goes through?

This doesn't make sense to me.

[rcturner2] 08/4/2002 23:52

The only thing I note after this deal is that gearing is now very high - surely a bit dangerous if property price are going to come under pressure.

[theophilus] 08/4/2002 23:03

I haven't seen anything from Propan, but all the other housebuilders have announced good results and the recent disposal after the acquisition of Sitemaster has produced an amazing profit of over £1m. This together with a PE of about 6 should encourage the shares to start moving upwards.

RNS Number:1413U
Propan Homes PLC
8 April 2002

PROPAN HOMES PLC

PROPAN HOMES SELLS CAISTOR HOSPITAL SITE

FOR £3 MILLION

Propan Homes, the AIM listed residential property developer, has sold its
Caistor Hospital site for £3m. This is one of four sites acquired when the
company bought Sitemaster Ltd in March this year. The sale generates Propan a
substantial book profit that will be used to reduce debt and increase working
capital.

Christopher Johnson, Propan Homes CEO said: "It goes without saying that we have
made a significant profit in excess of £1 million over the carrying cost of
Caistor and the value put on it at the time of the Sitemaster acquisition just
one month ago.

Cheers

Th.

[rcturner2] 08/4/2002 10:43

Does any one have any reliable forecasts for the year to 31 March 2002 results, please?

[ilyaspatel] 19/3/2002 08:58

These were rated a BUY on Bloomberg yesterday 18/03/02.

I do not hold these shares, YET!!

[ice cream] 14/2/2002 18:16

ITS VERY QUIET WHATS HAPPENING ?

[ice cream] 28/11/2001 14:07

Thanks Bruno,
I cant afford to off load at this price I bought at 0.225 then again at 0.17p on the so called advise of those nice people at HOO###SS BRE###N PLC Its my own fault I know all that DYOR stuff.Recently I have been watching their tips and it dont look good in the short term any way.