Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[gargleblaster] 15/8/2015 02:35

According to Sharescope the "Graham number", which I will allow you "numerical athlete's" to explain/remind me of what it means/is calculated, is currently 909p compared with an share price of 648p i.e. an upside of over 40% relative to sp! Sounds okay to me!!

[golden_eagle] 14/8/2015 23:49

Looks cheap

[sogoesit] 14/8/2015 08:11

Yes, indeed, on a Price/Sales Accor equivalent of 1.87x this share would be worth £7.95 (e11.24).
Catsick, on a Price/Book Accor equivalent of 2.84x I make it e25 which is £17.
Added today at 653p.
Good luck.

[catsick] 11/8/2015 09:25

This share is still super cheap , for it to trade in line with accor on an earnings and book value ratio basis it would need to be at 25 pounds ...

[ragehammer] 11/8/2015 08:49

Re NAV, we get a clue from the results announcement on 2 Mar. In the "Financial Position" section of the CFO report, it states "The ratio of bank borrowings to the fair value of the Group's properties on an aggregate basis on the latest market valuations (LTV) is approximately 56%." We do not know when these latest market valuations were done, but it is fair to assume that the price of prime London market hotels has not reduced in the last few years, so this is a "floor".

Bank borrowings at the time were €554.8m (both short and long term on the Balance Sheet). That gives a value for the fair value of property at €990.7m.

The table in the next section of the CFO report shows the adjusted book value of properties at €782.7m. This suggests upside from book to fair value of €208m.

As at 31 Dec 2014, NAV was €323.9m (with a small amount of intangibles, which I'll ignore). This equates to NAV of €7.72 per share. If we add the fair value upside to those numbers we get NAV of €12.68 per share.

Using today's GBP:EUR FX rate of 1.414 that gives GBP NAV per share including the upside of £8.97 per share. Note that as the London assets are GBP denominated, the upside is likely higher than that quoted in the annual report as GBP has further strengthened against the EUR since the start of the year by around 10%.

Using these figures, it seems there could be significant (38%) upside asset value in PPH from the current share price of £6.50. This does not take into account the retained profit for the first half of this year which will add further to NAV (maybe 25p or so?).

[sogoesit] 11/8/2015 07:55

Looks like trytotakeiteasy has been vindicated... either we PIs know more than management .. Lol ... or management have, in fact, delayed their refurbishments having seen demand coming down the road.
Result: Good Newds and Lucky for us!

[stevenlondon3] 11/8/2015 07:49

This threads title is now way out of date but it would be nice to know the NAV at current property prices.

[gargleblaster] 02/8/2015 21:34

Today's front page of the business section of the Sunday Times has an article on Intercontinental Hotels weighing up takeover bids for Fairmont and Movenpick. It says they are scrambling for takeover targets "amid a frenzy of dealmaking in the hotel industry"!

[sogoesit] 31/7/2015 07:47

I'm thinking of accumulating today as there looks like a leg-up is due.
And agree with your view on management's cautious caution statements trytotakeiteasy. I would have thought sterling strength would help rather than hinder given the London properties... don't think demand in London is an issue.
Edit: added at 593p

[trytotakeiteasy] 06/5/2015 10:40

trading update seems positive... occupancy up an impressive 4.8% in Q1 on a year ago... I think caution on sterling strength and the refurbishment impact is just PPHE management being cautious..... still looks well placed for a geared recovery and shares remain cheap... IMHO

[stevenlondon3] 06/5/2015 08:20

This comment in the trading statement must have shaken a few holders
"However, the strength of Sterling against the Euro may have an adverse effect on demand from European markets for our hotels in the United Kingdom. In this context, Management is closely monitoring the Group's performance to ensure such trends are identified and acted upon if required."
(Oxford St seems as busy as ever.)

[snadgey] 21/3/2015 08:29

10p ex-div on 19th and share price barely moved. Company starting a review with a view to unlocking capital. They have not mentioned what they plan to do with any proceeds but a cash return to shareholders could be an option imo. All the best.

[snadgey] 21/3/2015 08:29

10p ex-div on 19th and share price barely moved. Company starting a review with a view to unlocking capital. They have not mentioned what they plan to do with any proceeds but a cash return to shareholders could be an option imo. All the best.

[gargleblaster] 05/3/2015 01:16

Here is Shares mag write up

Plays update: PPHE Hotel
PPHE Hotel (PPH) 515p
Gain to date: 14.4%
Previous Shares view: Buy at 448p, 18 Dec 2014
A significant development pipeline and strong set of results from PPHE Hotel (PPH) gives us further confidence in the Park Plaza and Art’otel operator’s potential upside.
The £206 million cap, which has risen by 14.4% in price since we featured it as aPlay of the Week in September, saw a 50% increase in pre-tax profit to €32.9 million in the year to 31 December 2014 with revenue up 10.5% to €270.4 million.

The group’s occupancy and average room rate reached record levels of 83.7% and €135.6 respectively, up from 80.7% and €125.5 million in 2013.
The next two years will see significant renovations and investment in new hotels which could have a short-term impact on results but which will support long-term growth. The group plans to have 10,000 rooms in operation by 2019, up from the current 8,300 rooms.
The board has increased the total dividend for the year by 35.7% to 19p and it expects to follow a progressive dividend policy going forward.
FinnCap analyst Guy Hewett increases his target price to 605p in line with PPHE’s 8.6% rise in net asset value per share.

PPHE’s strong portfolio of assets and estimated 4.3% dividend yield make it an attractive investment opportunity. (EP)

[snadgey] 03/3/2015 06:34

How do you "lock in profits" by "holding"? IC are getting as bad as the brokers!

[gargleblaster] 03/3/2015 01:13

Copy of IC write up;

PPHE Hotel Group (PPH) is gearing up for two years of renovations following a strong set of 2014 results. Last year, record occupancy and room rates drove a 12 per cent increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR), while tight cost control and favourable currency movements prompted a 130 basis point margin improvement. The upshot was a 14.5 per cent improvement in like-for-like cash profits.

But over the next two years PPHE plans to renovate many of its hotels, while also continuing to open new sites both in the UK and abroad. By 2019, the group hopes to have 10,000 rooms in its portfolio, of which 3,500 will be in London.

In the short term, temporary closures for the renovations will sap top-line growth. As a result, analysts at FinnCap expect pre-tax profits of €30m (£22m) this year and EPS of 72.4ȼ, down from €32.9m and 78.6ȼ, respectively in 2014.

That said, 2015 is already off to a good start, with RevPAR in the first two months - the weakest season of the year - up on last year. Chief financial officer Chen Moravsky said current-year estimates are "conservative", and that it's "too early to tell" if strong trading will offset renovation costs.

PPHE HOTEL GROUP (PPH)
ORD PRICE: 504p MARKET VALUE: £219m
TOUCH: 500-508p 12-MONTH HIGH: 507p LOW: 313p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 3.8% PE RATIO: 7
NET ASSET VALUE: 745ȼ NET DEBT: 149%
Year to 31 Dec Turnover (€m) Pre-tax profit (€m) Earnings per share (ȼ) Dividend per share (p)
2010 140 60.5 152 nil
2011 202 10.6 37 6
2012 242 67.6 164 12
2013 245 27.3 67 14
2014 270 41.6 100 19
% change +10 +52 +49 +36
Ex-div: 19 Mar

Payment: 21 Apr

£1 = €1.37

IC view
At 504p, the shares are up a whopping 145 per cent on our original buy advice (206p, 31 May 2012). Underlying growth remains strong, but given that progress will be slow for a couple of years while the estate is renovated, we advise locking in profits. Downgrade to hold.

Last IC view: Buy, 443p, 29 Aug 2014

[gargleblaster] 02/3/2015 21:04

Agree that figures were solid and by 2016 a further 1000 rooms coming on-stream.

Finncap upgrades its price target to 605p.

02 Mar PPHE Hotel Group finnCap Corporate 512.00 582.00 605.00 Reiterates

[sogoesit] 02/3/2015 08:49

Indeed, good locations and stylish hotels.
Have stayed and always been well served.
Looking forward to further long term growth.

[snadgey] 02/3/2015 07:16

Excellent results as expected. Encouraging outlook going forward.

[trytotakeiteasy] 21/2/2015 20:47

FX headwind from weak euro though....

[sogoesit] 21/2/2015 11:00

Favoured hotel stock in this week's Chronic Investor sector focus review (over IHG, EZH, MLC).

[snadgey] 13/2/2015 11:21

Prelims to be 2 March

[ragehammer] 04/2/2015 18:33

The trading statement was in December, profit above expectations for the year.

[horndean eagle] 04/2/2015 18:29

Long overdue. Even now its trading on a p/e of just over 8. Should be at least 12 and that is being stingy.

[snadgey] 03/2/2015 07:29

Drifting up nicely. Trading Update overdue?