Peel Hotels Share Discussion Threads

[deswalker] 23/4/2015 16:11

If a trade sale occurs it ought to be at a premium to NAV let alone the current share price.

I don't think your analysis takes enough account of the asset backing. I also think you are underestimating the degree to which Capex (both expensed and capitalised) is adding to the value of these hotels. Of course some of these costs must be regarded as maintenance but much is designed to enhance the product and so enhance any resale value.

I look forward to hearing the views of those who attended the presentation today. I notice a few buys and the Offer is stuck at 98p so perhaps there is a line of stock to clear. But these lines are only ever small and then it gets tight again.

Des

[rndm355] 23/4/2015 15:25

Accurately priced at the moment: cash generation versus the debt level still not too high but if a trade sale occurs, it ought to be at a premium.

Blog post:

hxxp://grahamneary.wordpress.com/2015/04/23/peel-hotels-pho-l-value-in-this-mid-market-hotel-operator/

[playful] 22/4/2015 11:18

We certainly do!

Another quality post from Des.

[battlebus2] 22/4/2015 10:16

Little shareholders playful lol. We all count no matter how small.

Thanks for your insight Des.

[deswalker] 22/4/2015 08:19

I'm pleased with those numbers but they had been well flagged so no real surprises except for the dividend where I was only expecting 1p.

It seems clear that questions for the event ought to focus on the exit strategy as there isn't a huge amount to talk about beyond this.

The issue hinted in the video interview that somehow there might be a sale whilst retaining the listing needs clearing up as does the issue of whether piecemeal sales might add more value than selling the estate as a whole.

In particular, trying to get some more answers about strategy with regard to Dunfermline and especially Nottingham would be very interesting. Personally I hope Mr Peel is actively moving things forward with these two loss-making hotels. He's had them a long time now and progress has been very slow. A possible change-of-use planning application for Nottingham was mentioned at the last AGM.

[playful] 22/4/2015 08:12

Not to worry, I will thank him on behalf of all the PHO little shareholders.

[battlebus2] 22/4/2015 07:56

Playful i think a shake of the hand from all those shareholders who can't attend would be appropriate.

[lanzarote666] 22/4/2015 07:48

Back on the dividend list - should attract buyers today.

But the words 'expect to pay' and 'details to be announced... May 2015' are intriguing. What are the factors that drive these expectations, why not simply confirm or is there something else that they are holding back?

[topvest] 22/4/2015 07:20

Yes, very good indeed. Better dividend than expected as well. Maybe 2p next year then. Good revenue growth and debt reduction. Results out quite early. Still think this group is going to be sold over the next 12-24 months / subject to some form of corporate activity.

[gingerplant] 22/4/2015 07:18

Very pleasing results and clearly worth a lot closer to the 164pps NAV IMO.

[playful] 22/4/2015 07:16

I am going to congratulate Robert in person when I see him tomorrow!

[battlebus2] 22/4/2015 07:09

Great results this morning.

Derived from audited results for Financial Year Ended 1 February 2015.


HIGHLIGHTS

# Turnover increased 6.1% to £16,454,241 (2014: £15,509,911)

# EBITDA increased 24.9% to £2,473,196 (2014: £1,980,380)

# Operating Profit up 56.5% to £1,454,481 (2014: £929,627)

# Net debt decreased £821,990

# Profit before tax increased 180.6% to £959,403 (2014: £341,863)

# Earnings per share basic and diluted 5.24p (2014: 2.78p)

# Expect to pay dividend of 1.5p for year ended 1 February 2015. Details to be announced when we publish our Annual Report at the beginning of May 2015

'Sustained improvement in turnover has continued in the new financial year and we continue to pay down our debt. These two factors will enable us to look forward to another year of progress.'

Robert Peel
Chairman

[battlebus2] 17/4/2015 16:08

No but i hear they are a rowdy bunch and may trash the bar :))

Nice to have touched the £1 mark....

[cockerhoop] 17/4/2015 15:44

It's not going to diminish over the next week or so with hundreds of investors visiting the Bull in Peterborough :-)

Unless of course the rooms are damp and the breakfast dire!

[battlebus2] 17/4/2015 14:57

Yep, the Davidosh Mello effect i believe....

[topvest] 18/3/2015 21:21

Agreed. The Peels have done very well to keep this going. They have also been very fair to minority holders as they could have easily taken private or issued shares at a very low price to fund the business through the difficult times. But they didn't because they are true gentlemen. I do believe that they probably have one eye on the end game now as they are not getting any younger and are probably too old to want to take this through another recession. They will no doubt take advantage of the cycle and, in my view, in the next 2 years it will be time to exit before the cycle turns down again. They will probably want the right solution for their business though. If you look at historical prices I would have thought they will be looking for close to / above 150p for an exit.

[lanzarote666] 18/3/2015 16:23

Not sure about the structure, but the message from the interview is clear - this Company is in play if anybody is interested in buying.

It appears that there may be a 40% to 65% upside from here and part of that increase in the price should come through once later figures are released. Last year and the beginning to this year have been good.

Just an opinion - true value will come out in the end...

[deswalker] 18/3/2015 15:26

Boystown,

I think your logic is a bit confused. The point is that a new majority shareholder taking ownership of more than 30% is supposed to be forced to make an offer for the whole company on the same terms as the trades that got him to over 30%. I've never seen a scenario where a new owner buys 60% of an AIM company outright from two controlling shareholders but sticks two fingers up to the remaining 40%. The offer has to be made to all shareholders with a resulting loss of the listing for the buyer as presumably all the minority shareholders follow the Peels and sell.

I can't see that this is Mr Peel's plan at all but strictly speaking that is what he says in the interview.

Des

[boystown] 18/3/2015 13:55

As PHO is AIM-listed and the Peel brothers sell; are they exempt from CGT - or do they have to keep it to be so? If the latter, surely they have no vested interest in selling but would rather take income in some way, leaving the rest for their inheritors eventually?

Perhaps he was simply talking about selling their stake to let the new majority shareholder do whatever s/he decided with the rest - i.e. to make the rest of us the mandatory offer but keep the listing - or de-list at whatever price the new owner felt s/he could get away with?

[deswalker] 17/3/2015 20:22

I met Mr Peel at last year's AGM. He comes across as very nice, honest and straight talking. I hope those who meet him in Peterborough will think likewise and will pass on any feedback about the meeting to this thread as I did following the AGM last Summer.

One thing that does puzzle me about the YouTube video is his apparent suggestion that the eventual outer for the Peel brothers might not be the same as the eventual outer for the minority shareholders. He seems to suggest that the brothers might sell to a young entrepreneur who wishes to grow the chain and use the listing to achieve this. But surely anybody taking out the Peel brothers would need to make a mandatory offer to all shareholders and hence lose the listing ?

I certainly hope that any outer will be made available to all shareholders rather than via some complicated construct whereby the Peels leave the scene but nobody else gets offered the same terms (which in any case will be a lot higher than the current share price as Mr Peel told me he wouldn't sell at NAV = 165p) just so that the listing can remain. Any such arrangement must surely breach takeover rules ?

I'd be really grateful if somebody could clarify this point with Mr Peel when they meet him in April and report his answer back to this thread. I'm hoping he just got a little confused in his thinking about such a hypothetical issue but one can never be sure so further questioning would be useful.

Thanks,

Des

[topvest] 12/3/2015 20:51

Thanks interesting. A good man! One does get the feeling that they are possibly looking to exit over the next few years. No rush, but that's how it seems to me. Looks like a 1p final dividend to me.

[playful] 12/3/2015 13:43

Sounds like a great opportunity to meet the man himself!

[davidosh] 12/3/2015 12:55

It may interest shareholders here to let you know that the next big Mello event will be held at the Peel owned Conference Centre and Bull Hotel in Peterborough and that Robert Peel will be doing a company presentation...



The Workshops will be great for new and long term serious investors alike...



It will also be great exposure for Peel as the Bull is one of their prize assets and a very nice hotel to play host to 450 investors for two days.

[battlebus2] 12/3/2015 11:44

Very interesting. TA.