Peel Hotels Share Discussion Threads

[lanzarote666] 04/10/2013 16:31

Hotel performance figures from BDO

Robert Barnard, partner at BDO LLP, commented: "This latest set of strong results suggests that momentum is beginning to build in the UK hotel sector. The industry was badly hit when the economy first hit trouble, and it appears that hotels are among the early beneficiaries of the nascent economic recovery."



Results around 23rd/24th October?

[battlebus2] 04/10/2013 09:35

Decent buy this morning of 19k odd.

[battlebus2] 30/9/2013 20:28

Interim results usually October so not that far away now.

[battlebus2] 18/9/2013 18:22

I had the pleasure of dining at a couple of our hotels recently with family members and couldn't resist asking staff how busy they have been, answer very busy and bookings well up on last year.

[lanzarote666] 18/9/2013 09:17

There have been a couple of articles from PwC regarding the sector which underlines my thoughts that there is a recovery going on. Because of their history (and knock back due to debt levels) Peel is probably still under-valued and may be the re-rating has some way to go. I wonder whether the 67 year old owner may be thinking of selling on and taking advantage of the positive outlook to find a buyer?

The budget hotels and 18,000 new rooms are a threat, but it backs up a theory that there is increasing demand for hotels.

hxxp://www.pwc.co.uk/hospitality-leisure/uk-hotels-forecast/hotels-forecast-the-regions.jhtml

'Occupancy has remained high by historic standards averaging almost 70% in the first half of 2013 and enjoying strong growth in each of the first six months. For 2013 and 2014 we forecast 1.9% and 0.4% growth in occupancy respectively, taking occupancy to 71% – as high as it has ever been since 2000

Hotels experiencing rising occupancy levels are generally in a favourable position to realise greater Average Daily Rate gains

The strong occupancy gains this year mean RevPAR should nudge ahead by 1.3% in 2013 and see further 1.8% growth in 2014'

hxxp://www.pwc.co.uk/hospitality-leisure/uk-hotels-forecast/economic-outlook-uk-gdp-recovery-is-good-news-for-the-hotel-sector.jhtml

'Cautiously upbeat

Historically there has been a close relationship between Revenue per available room and GDP growth so a sustained recovery in GDP should lead to increased levels of room demand and revenue growth for the following few years.

We expect London and the South East to continue to lead the recovery, but all regions should return to positive growth in 2013-14

Economic growth is not likely to be distributed uniformly across the regions. Our estimates for 2013 range from 0.7% growth in the North East to 1.6% in London, while projected regional growth in 2014 ranges from around 1.7% to around 2.7%'

[playful] 17/9/2013 23:37

A very comfortable share to hold. Never gives me a sleepless night

[lanzarote666] 11/9/2013 20:21

More clues to the rapid rise in the PHO share price of late may have come from Whitbread's trading statement yesterday that said that Premier Inn has grown total sales by 12.1% and total room nights by 10.7% in the last 24 weeks.

If this trend of higher occupancy levels is being seen in general across the sector, this could be good news for Peel. 12% of last years revenue is an extra £1.80m of sales. DYOR

[lanzarote666] 05/9/2013 08:19

PHO – attracted by the recent break out this looks an interesting proposition and a possible re-rating has further to go.

The stay-cation has been a feature of 2013 in the UK and the good weather is likely to have helped Revpar increase and hopefully this will reflect well when the next results are released. I think the sector is a good one to be in at the moment.

The portfolio appears well located and most show evidence of good staff and happy customers (with the exception of Dunfermline). There may be some capex to come in Scotland and Leeds but I guess that can be met within annual budgets.

Whilst profits have been negligible, cash flow of £1.90m is strong enough to cover the £12m debt – they have reduced debt by £2.40m in 3 years - and gearing is reducing at 56% – and the Bank has just extended facilities until 2017.

The game changer is the expiry of a Bank Swap in April 2014. This will cut £500k of overhead and should see a return to profitability and they can then think about dividends.

The icing on the cake and speculative element would be any possible mis-selling case of the Swap. In my personal opinion, this seems unlikely given FSA guidance, but they reckon they have overpaid £2.75m of interest over the term because of the instrument.

Windfall or hope money maybe, but the Company is still attractive with or without it in view of the discount to net assets.

Settlements are being offered, but they appear to be towards 'unsophisticated customers' and I am not sure that an AIM Company fits the bill. This is yesterday's update from the FCA on the Bank's review of sales under the IRHPs - hxxp://www.fca.org.uk/news/update-on-the-banks-reviews-of-sales-of-interest-rate-hedging-products

[topvest] 04/9/2013 17:24

Yes, compensation here would be nice. Need to agree a new facility first...wonder if that will now be at a very good rate?

[battlebus2] 04/9/2013 16:41

Wondering what compensation we would get now the precedent has been set.

[briangeeee] 04/9/2013 15:49

and on here
"A couple who own a hotel in Bournemouth are thought to be among the first to be compensated."

[battlebus2] 04/9/2013 15:40

Thanks for that Briangeeee.

[gingerplant] 04/9/2013 09:50

Still at a huge (60%) discount to NTAV & profitable - with swaps unwinding & divis around the corner.

[battlebus2] 04/9/2013 09:11

Yep seems a well run company if my several hotel visits are anything to go by.

[playful] 04/9/2013 09:04

Well deserved too

[battlebus2] 04/9/2013 09:01

Rerating well under way it seems :))

[battlebus2] 03/9/2013 19:22

Neither have i, as you say with the dividend this is a long term hold for me.

[playful] 03/9/2013 17:17

I have no intention of selling anytime soon and look forward to receiving many future dividends which should hopefully be restored soon.

[battlebus2] 03/9/2013 08:03

UP at the off this morning :))

[topvest] 02/9/2013 19:28

Great to see this moving back towards a £1. Sounds like summer trading has been good to me and with the swap soon to end we could be back on the dividend list before too long.

[playful] 02/9/2013 14:28

Up we go again – Yes, I'm well just been busy elsewhere

[battlebus2] 02/9/2013 14:25

Hi playful long time since you've posted hope your well, Yes very interesting. It's something in which everyone involved should be compensated imv.

[playful] 02/9/2013 14:21

Interesting read:



If he is successful I imagine that opens the gates for us too

[battlebus2] 02/9/2013 14:04

Another good day for PHO by the looks of things.