Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[flyposter] 05/12/2016 23:51

@wolfhound:

"b) when the skrill acqn happened the share price rocketed by 50% immediatly - and in an all share merger arbitrage that is exactly what the shorters want to happen... as they will be long newly issued PAYS shares"

Can you remember if shorters were shorting before the Skrill acqn? Thanks in advance.

@elsa7878:


"It's hard to qualify the size of the move down in face of postive trading fundamentals without summising that these shorts know something that we don't."

I have seen the same pattern on a few companies I trade, or that I am considering trading... I am looking for an entry point on DTY who have tanked in the face of the last trading update being upbeat. WPG looks cheap now too - neither have shorters. Could it just be that said shorters could get a better read on PAYS?

[callmebwana] 05/12/2016 22:25

ZHO,
THANK YOU FOR A BREATH OF FRESH AIR.
Oh' the capital locks got the better of me ??
I think I will leave it as it is. Very well balanced posts.
GLA.

[eh9] 05/12/2016 20:32

Paysafe have said they can borrow 2.5x proforma ebitda i.e. $293m x 2.5 x 2 (if target same size ebitda potential as Paysafe) - $150m debt outstanding at April 2017 = $1.3bn acquisition or higher if there were a rights and or some shares involved too.

[elsa7878] 05/12/2016 20:14

It's hard to qualify the size of the move down in face of postive trading fundamentals without summising that these shorts know something that we don't.

1) They're pushing the price down as it is relatively easy to do so, as the share does not trade large volumes in relation to its market cap.

2) These funds have got wind of a takeover and in view of PAYS present debt postion realise that an element of any future M&A will be cash and shares, hence requiring further dilution of existing shareholders.

3) There is some regulatory or competitive risk that we are unaware of.

4) In light of an event driven fund now opening a short postion, the implication is that there is some event that they are aware of that provides them with an arbitrage opportunity eg long the target, short the acquirer.

I favour the latter as the fall in the shareprice does not appear to have brought out any value investors, when in a market of full pricing and few opportunities, PAYS is glaringly cheap in relative terms. The market knows something and is sitting on it's hands waiting for clarity,

Does that mean that the shareprice will keep falling. Clearly not, but until we get some details it is impossible to know for sure and in the meantime these funds will capitalise on the uncertainty, until they too think that there is no more flesh on the bone...

[malcolmmm] 05/12/2016 19:09

looks to me that these two are coordinating their shorts. Perhaps the reason why the share price dropped so sharply

Sand Grove Capital Management LLP 0.63% 2016-12-01
Public Equity Partners Management, L.P 2.12% 2016-12-01
Sand Grove Capital Management LLP 0.58% 2016-11-30
Public Equity Partners Management, L.P 2.02% 2016-11-30

[ihatemms] 05/12/2016 18:53

wolfhound - how does your merger theory fit in with Bain buying @ circa 4.20p.
AnD Scsw is saying buy the shares. If the shares are due to fall further due to shorts why not just wait to buy?

[ihatemms] 05/12/2016 18:52

wolfhound - how does your merger theory fit in with Bain buying @ circa 4.20p.
AnD Scsw is saying buy the shares. If the shares are due to fall further due to shorts why not just wait to buy?

[wolfhound1] 05/12/2016 17:40

I think ELSA7878's suggestion has merit - an all share merger would explain quite a bit:

a) shorts could be auto closed via new shares issued to the target
b) likely they would be issued at a premium to current share price of target ( 20% + margin)
c) with shorts now published they force down the share price of the acquiror and therefore the acquiree gets more shares
d) If well received by market and expanded PAYS share price spikes then the shorters win again with the residual shares issues ( new issue less of course the shares they were short) assuming they stay long the residual shares.

... wonder if someone like VeriFone Technology ( Nasdaq: PAY) could be a target , their Jan17 Call options have seen a surge in buying and share price up 7% today - like the idea of a reverse takeover to a NASDAQ listing.

P.S. If ELSA7878 suggestion pans out then we can probably expect to see shorts increase further....that will signify deal announcement is getting closer IMHO

[jbarcroftr] 05/12/2016 17:07

Soon be time for the T30 buyers

[qs99] 05/12/2016 16:40

well at least closed blue....

[ddav] 05/12/2016 16:22

All this banter reminds me of when share_shark was about!

[steptoes yard] 05/12/2016 16:21

In at 363.5
No fighting please, peace be with us all.

[callmebwana] 05/12/2016 16:09

Ah !! I am slow at times to catch on Zho.
Can I be the first in line please for the service ?? Only joking.
Have a good day and I hope you make loads of money invested in PAYS.
English is my 5th language. I speak 4 others very well.So forgive me for not getting it the first time around. I am a very well traved person around this world.
I was born in Kenya, hence my Moniker.
:o))
ATB.

[callmebwana] 05/12/2016 15:42

Zho, good afternoon.
You have that service. Click on the Moniker of the poster and you can filter, send message etc.You can also buy a XMas present if you like.You don't have to subscribe.
I hope this helps.
ATB to all.
:o)

[zho] 05/12/2016 15:09

>>There is always the private massaging service here>>

I don't get offered that :-(

Maybe I should increase my subscription?

[melf] 05/12/2016 15:06

Just to reiterate what Wolfhound has been saying regarding the drop in share price before the Skrill announcement on 23rd March 2015.



You can see how the price steadily dropped from September 2014 to the end of December at which point it steadied and made a small recovery before the announcement.

Interesting stuff.

[qs99] 05/12/2016 13:55

maybe he is being polite?! I know that is unusual in the UK these days...

anyway, can't believe PAYS is almost approaching single digit forward looking p/e at the moment.....whatever is "looming" hope we get some company movement soon....

[dogwalker] 05/12/2016 13:49

You've got a thing about 'Wolf', haven't you callmebwana? ! 'Thank you, oh thank you sooo much Wolfie baby etc etc for all your lovely posts. So good, every one of them. Very kind of you ' ad nauseam. Do you really feel you have to brown-nose the guy quite so much?

[callmebwana] 05/12/2016 13:06

Thanks Wolf for your input.

[rhatton] 05/12/2016 12:05

These were suspended most of the morning when Skrill deal was announced.