Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 25/11/2016 14:00

Wolfhound - I suppose that we can draw some solace from the fact that, as much as we might hate that outcome, I suspect that somewhat understates JL's view of that particular outcome. Expect an acquisition/JV/Nasdaq listing to try and throw a spanner in the works, and expect any bid materialising not to be the only game in town.

[wolfhound1] 25/11/2016 13:51

thanks Redlee - I get the feeling things are close, guess we might know inside a few months maybe less

Lomax - agreed - I think if we can hang in there long term we would probably double maybe triple share price inside a few yrs, would hate to be selling such a great co as PAYS on a PE multiple of 15 - when clearly that should probably be PE of 25.

[redlee] 25/11/2016 13:20

Great summary Wolfhound

[nurdin] 25/11/2016 13:17

I am still waiting for the IBM deal to transpire..:o)

[lomax99] 25/11/2016 13:12

Not if that is the end result!

[trentendboy] 25/11/2016 13:00

Like it wolfe.

[wolfhound1] 25/11/2016 12:33

I do see a trail of cookie crumbs leading me to the same conclusion HaroMaster/EH9 - BAIN look to be the likely potential bidder

* BAIN along with Advent made about $4.9bn from Worldpay - still hold about 13%
* BAIN recently bought 3% of PAYS at about 420p
* Bain have subsidiary funds named Public Equity Managment
* The second shorter just so happens to be called Public Equity Partners Management, L.P - coincidence ?
* EH( is spot on - PAYS has suprisingly had a relatively low key launch of GOLO- so something is occupying their time
* The housecleaning of pre-paid master card finishes today for Emerging Markets ( removal of nuisance revenue streams to focus on bigger picture)
* JL moves shares out of canadian structure one assumes to benefit from favourable IOM CGT
* Republicans are in and regulation is out - Trump knows gambling so why not now use it to generate $billion of taxes to fund his tax cuts.
* Doesn't hurt that Mitt Romney is BAIN founder and now Alumni
* Digital Wallet for a liberalised US gambling market - $10bn MV easily.

Here is a possible theory of what has been happening :

a) Shorts have been used to hold back the share price for the preceeding 6 months of a deal
b) An affiliate of the Bidder ( another huge PE firm possibly starting with A...) shorts the stock
c) Potential Bidder ( beginning with a B...) goes long and does a Bi-lateral OTC contract with affiliate to limit the risk of share price spike in case another bidder steps in.
d) once price has been held back for 6 months they pounce at a 40-50% premium - still way too cheap at a PE of about 15. They could float on US market in a year and double their money.

[eh9] 25/11/2016 11:03

Also the low key golo launch suggests a deal with big partner pending

[eh9] 25/11/2016 11:03

I would have thought a jv with vodaphone to extend the current m-Pesa partnership.....

[eh9] 25/11/2016 11:02

Bain? The consultancy?

[haromaster] 25/11/2016 10:53

Bain have been looking to add a "Wallet" to their portfolio of services for sometime now, this I know as a fact. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if a deal is in the pipeline. With the margins on acquiring being squeezed (dyor on interchange and cross boarder acquiring) adding an eWallet is another massive revenue cash cow. And should we see the US relax the laws on Gaming..... just take a look at what the share price was at for both Optimal Payments (aka FirePay) and Neovia when Gaming was legal. Been in since under 60p and remain in until we are well above 700. GLA.

[malcolmmm] 25/11/2016 10:48

I am thinking the fund shorting weekly is hoping that investors stop losses will be hit and these will dip further, before going long ,around 370/ 380p perhaps. Pure speculation of course. Chart doesn't look good at the moment
I have placed a limit buy order at 380p , hopefully it wont be filled

[nurdin] 25/11/2016 10:34

Never thought the market would treat Paysafe with such disdain,rating them, as it does, at just 10.3x prospective earnings.The rating is now low enough to invite an opportunistic bid but I hope it does not transpire.I feel the company can do much better by remaining independent under the stewardship of JL.

[eh9] 25/11/2016 10:10

The CEO share move was imo to point out to iis that he was holding strong and not selling this December. He may have had personal tax reasons for the transfer but I would suggest the disclosure was not strictly legally required therefor was used to make a point to iis. He may also be an insider on the deal being worked on and cannot buy therefore another reason to make same point by moving his holding around.

[malcolmmm] 25/11/2016 09:47

Oh right, I remember he did something that spooked the sp

[wolfhound1] 25/11/2016 09:39

Not sure that would really make much impact. JL sold just over 1.1.mn shares last Dec for £4.2mn and share price hardly moved - and I doubt he has spent the £4.2mn in the last yr so unlikely he will need to be selling anytime soon.

The fact he moved the shares out of Canada to CGT friendly IOM - makes me think he is doing some house cleaning because there is a bid deal in the offing that involve his entire holding i.e. bid

[redlee] 25/11/2016 09:14

Another increase by PEPM

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 23:03

Perhaps the funds shorting are hoping that Leonoff or a director will sell some of their shares at some point , remember this happened before and the share price took a tumble.

Leonoff continues to have an interest in a total of 9,768,580 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 1.99 per cent of the issued share capital of the Company. This number includes the 1,500,000 Ordinary Shares pledged by Mr Leonoff in favour of Equities First Holdings, LLC.

[wolfhound1] 24/11/2016 19:34

Are we getting close to an announcement I wonder ?

I assume JL move of shares from Canadian Co to own name was to avail of IOM CGT benefit.

That combined with the housekeeping event of the prepaid mastercard - which finishes tomorrow - would I assume simplify any regulatory approval hurdles needed for a mergers/acqn.

GLA

[bwana4] 24/11/2016 16:54

EH9 , you are a very informed poster. Thank you and Wolf for all your posts.
In this world there is no gain without pain. Patience is the word. Some want jam today.
Well they can play AMC, if they like. I am invested in that. Not as big as PAYS.
ATB to all.

[redlee] 24/11/2016 16:49

Agree Malcolmmm does seem odd. Why 8 months eh9?

[eh9] 24/11/2016 16:42

Presumably CEO share movement today was a signal to iis that he is holding tight and they should too for what the company has planned over the next 8 months

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 16:16

Last short taken out was on 17/11/2016, they are still trying to keep the lid on these, seems strange to me at these levels