Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 29/10/2015 09:53

Marmar,

Well they definitely should take a look at what you've been posting and other arbi cases. Many of which are for significant sums for what look like much lesser assets. Some are for licences with little exploration work let alone JORC compliant reserves or in the case of OXS a significant world class low cost mine in production which was planned to be increased significantly once the shaft mine was to be fully developed. Its the reason that I have only one arbi situation in my porty. I chose what looked like the strongest case and highest upside, lets see what the French folks make of it, hopefully we'll see fair compensation in the very near future.

Regards,
Ed.

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 09:53

Indeed Nick, that's another good way of arriving at value.

[goodbloke1] 29/10/2015 09:41

Excellent posts.Hopefully our award takes into account allow these factors

[nick2412] 29/10/2015 09:35

Another way of looking at it (maybe optimistically) is that Zeromax can be deemed a Uzbek Govt entity and they agreed a right to buy RAB's position at 80p a share in 2007. This valued OXS at $600m and Khandiza had already been expropriated so it includes nothing for Khandiza.

Of course currency changes and the issue of shares since then changes things.

One thing that intrigues me is how arbitration panel deal with the fact that companies with expropriated assets often have to issue shares and assets to fund the case. OXS would not have had to pay up to 30% of its assets to Calunius or, arguably, issued so many shares if circumstances had been different. The arbitration rules allow for costs other than basic lawyer fees.

I haven't studied how precedents have dealt with this so I really don't know if OXS's lawyers will push to be awarded some or all of the Calunius element and get the panel to take into account dilution that has resulted from expropiation.

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"A takeover of both the control shareholding, and of Oxus management by Zeromax, appears to be the Christmas box a sceptical market has been hoping will unlock Oxus value in Uzbekistan. Current proven and probable reserves listed by Oxus are 1.49 million oz of gold; 3.4 million oz of silver. For Zeromax, a share price of 80p indicates a valuation of the company at GBP292.3 million, or almost $600 million."

[marmar80] 29/10/2015 09:26

Thanks Ed. Recently not many posters comment on my research. I agree with you of course. Oxus was poised to be a large company, with high profile connections in UK, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Russia. Something has happened and we are where we are.

[goodbloke1] 29/10/2015 09:26

Giant steps I totally agree with your logic but just wondered what costs we put into this?Was looking at worst case scenario if we were awarded a multiple of costs without factoring all the other issues we should have compensation for like DCF

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 09:21

Edgein, Khandiza was the Bill Trew 'jewel in the crown' - no sooner said
and it was taken away ! It was thought to be one of ten such projects.

[edgein] 29/10/2015 09:18

Marmar,

The loss to OXS is more like billions rather than millions if you include Jerooy, AGF and Khandiza.

"The Amantaytau site is considered one of the world's largest undeveloped gold deposits. AGF s right to develop the Amantaytau Project was granted in the early 1990s, pursuant to a joint venture agreement between a foreign investor and Uzbek Government entities."

Target was 300,000 Oz over at least 10 years of production, ultimately they were targeting 24m Oz of gold and they had other exploration targets too. Its really no wonder they're claiming for a minimum of $400m. I see some others like the recent example posted on the thread were for larger sums for non-producing assets. Khandiza will have to be accounted for too. When you look at other claims the OXS claim range of $489-1250m looks modest indeed for producing world class assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 09:17

GB1, you thinking along the lines of the Chinese deal in 2010 ?

They wanted to put $185m into Oxus for 72%, but regime scuppered it.


How many multiples of $185m do you envisage ?

[festario] 29/10/2015 09:17

GS... just brace yourself for several more RNS's saying...ISSUE OF EQUITYFor my own sanity's sake, that's what I expect.

[goodbloke1] 29/10/2015 09:12

I would not be surprised if we get just a multiple of costs put in taking a worst case scenario.

[medauntouchable] 29/10/2015 09:12

Are we expecting the spread to get wider as the day draws on....news due soon and all that....

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 09:12

Should be at least one RNS tomorrow to set pulses running

Total Voting Rights | Trident | Verdict

[the stigologist] 29/10/2015 08:53

Chart looking good for moonshoot scenario

[goodbloke1] 29/10/2015 08:51

How much have we put into oxs in total?

[kcowe] 29/10/2015 08:39

Do you really believe Giant Steps .. that we are close to a verdict and RS knows we are?

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 08:34

Very near future, the signal has been given - could be any moment

[kcowe] 29/10/2015 08:21

can't see a rise.. can see a consolidation .. as we hugged 3p for three months ... probably hug 4p till the result is known .. when ever that is .

[the stigologist] 29/10/2015 08:11

technical retrace over ?

MACD and RSI turning, 50 day Moving Average rapidly rising providing support and launchpad for next move higher

[giant steps] 29/10/2015 07:57

+29 Days

Verdict Imminent ?

[bobtheslob] 28/10/2015 23:02

75p wow ! I think pretty much most investors would be happy with that !

[wulber] 28/10/2015 22:54

Good post tony_currieIf they got 44% and not in production, you would expect Oxus could get +70% or +75p ps.