Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[hairballradical] 26/10/2015 08:38

Ross,

you mean ....

'their supposed meeting ends today'

[john henry] 26/10/2015 08:31

Agree Ross if I see any volume dumping I will hit the sell button. IMHO there will be very few buyers given the risk.

[maytrees] 26/10/2015 08:28

But surely sensible to look at both sides - after all horse racing odds with even the favourite at say 3 to 1 usually has a large number of bets to win although if it loses the punter takes zero.

[john henry] 26/10/2015 08:25

Maytrees makes very little difference as one side of the binary is Zero you lose the lot .

[giant steps] 26/10/2015 08:24

StoneFold, there is no urgent need for RAB to go for cash. May be they can
sell down Oxus in the coming months for many multiples just like PI's
would like to do.

[edgein] 26/10/2015 08:24

JH,

Yeah indeed and shows the material value of AGF alone, an alternative to the DCF valuation. Both substantial amounts of cash for just AGF alone, but then again when it had the potential to be 24m Oz if OXS had been left to their own devices then its not surprising the numbers knocking around since 2012 (just like the DCF values released by the company back then) for AGF are substantial. I'm sure the French panel will take all these valuations into consideration when they reach their decision. I know that there will be a few price watchers around now if the rumours of the board meeting ending today are taken seriously.

Regards,
Ed.

[maytrees] 26/10/2015 08:22

john henry greetings

If the OXS was a normal gamble, bearing in mind that the possible outcomes are not limited to zero/double your money but say zero/quadruple your money, surely there would be more buys and a higher share price despite the risks?

[giant steps] 26/10/2015 08:20

Time for Oxus to update their website plus encourage trident to declare

[stonefold] 26/10/2015 08:20

RAB share holdings
at 02-10-2015
12,175,965

at start of day 22-10-2015
6,775,965

so between 02-10 and 22-10 they sold 5,400,000

They did not forward sell any of the new shares from the 8p CLN conversion.
54,669,234

total at end of day 22-10-2015
61,445,199

RAB want cash, so have always sold shares ( I've never seen an instance of them buying shares).
So I would expect them to continue selling all 10,566,436 of those shares that are currently in the money.
What they do with the 50,878,763 that require 8 pence per share to break even, is where it gets interesting.


Trident were issued with 22,598,914 shares that are currently in the money (so could be sold)
and 51,779,497 shares that require 8 pence per share to break even.


At the current rate of selling 270,000 a day, it would take 4 months to clear the RAB and Trident shares that are currently in the money.
If they sell at a higher rate it may hammer the price to below the break even point.

[john henry] 26/10/2015 08:16

Edgein Article concerning the $600 valuation was back in 2012, I believe. One group of people that still believe this is a binary outcome 50/50 is the Market.

[edgein] 26/10/2015 08:07

So RAB now up to almost 9% of OXS as a result of the 8p loan conversion, as GS mentions they didn't reduce to zero of their original holding, also worth noting that their manager also held all of his holding knowing that the company remain confident of an award and fair compensation in the very near future. So he's as confident as the rest of us LTH it seems, very positive at this late stage. I don't usually believe rumours, but at least the latest one does tie in with the very near future. I wouldn't be overly surprised if the board has been very busy this last month or two and will remain so for the very near future. Would be nice to get an update before Halloween, fingers crossed, just me being hopeful given recent comments from the CEO. That was also a very interesting post over the weekend by the chap that suggested that OXS were worth $600m on the AGF assets alone without Khandiza (apologies cannot remember who posted it).

Regards,
Ed.

[john henry] 26/10/2015 08:01

GS, RAB converting means they can sell and at least get some money back rather than hold out for a binary outcome where they would either get the debt back or zero. Mind you they wouldn't be able to sell many without trashing the price so maybe they are in it for the binary outcome. We will soon know from daily volumes

[giant steps] 26/10/2015 07:51

rossannan, i'm surprised you're not interested in the 2nd largest
holder in OXS although clearly trident as #1 is more fascinating.

[giant steps] 26/10/2015 07:36

JH, see #26738 as it appears you don't fully appreciate the situation.

[giant steps] 26/10/2015 07:35

apf, if RAB have stopped selling then supply may dry up. I think folk
misunderstand the fund situation. They are not winding up by the end of
this year, but simply giving shareholders the vote to wind up in Dec 2015.
As can be seen from many funds (e.g TAU), this process can take years.

Why shouldn't RAB Special Situations get the same benefit as private
investors are expecting? I can't imagine they will be sellers below 8p
else it makes little sense to convert (if they thought Oxus was a dead duck
and were simply salvaging money then the prior stock would have been zero
in my opinion). The announcement today is most helpful.

No advice intended.

[john henry] 26/10/2015 07:32

What's so great GS we knew this last week with the debt conversion at 8p

[maytrees] 26/10/2015 07:32

Good morning GS apf and all
Still holding waiting and watching!

[apfindley] 26/10/2015 07:28

Yes GS, as you mention, they hadn't sold their previous shares so would appear they anticipate holding out for the award.

[davisc7] 26/10/2015 07:13

Very interesting and yes exciting, I feel a few more RNS's coming along before the big one