Off-plan Fund Share Discussion Threads

[barnetpeter] 18/3/2009 13:13

Yes if the vote is on returning say 40P to shareholders the price will soar. Buying now coming in and I could see these at 20p by tomorrow night.

[tara7] 18/3/2009 12:15

Yep, to me the directors do not want to rip off shareholders, and all what we have read from them seems ok. I am of the view the shares are this low due to sellers wanting cash, the company itself is doing fine and has loads of property and cash way above todays share price. Fail to see why we should not trust them to do the best for us.

[barnetpeter] 18/3/2009 11:58

This is the critical part from last years results:

Against these measures of asset performance it is therefore disappointing to
report that the share price during the period fell 11.6% from 84.0p to 74.3p, a
level around which it remains today. The fall occurred in the last 2 months of
the period and the price has not moved in very little trading since the year
end. Lack of liquidity in the stock remains a key driver in this widening
discount.

Your Board remain extremely cognisant of this problem. As I reported last year
we have investigated means with which to address the issue. We were therefore
pleased to report the issue of a further 20 per cent. in issued share capital to Elsina Limited, a company owned by the trustees for the Tchenguiz family and
advised by the Consensus Business Group (CBG), in April last year at 95p per
share. Disappointingly, and somewhat surprisingly, this had no positive impact
on liquidity or the share price.

Therefore, following an extensive round of shareholder meetings last November
and consultation with the Manager, the Board has decided to put forward a
resolution to this year's AGM to consider an amendment to the Fund's articles of association which will, if passed, introduce an annual continuation vote at each AGM with effect from 2009. Shareholders will have an opportunity each year to decide whether the Fund should continue with its present investment policy or commence an orderly realisation of the property portfolio. The Board anticipate that this measure should have a positive impact on liquidity and the share price discount over time.

[barnetpeter] 18/3/2009 11:38

I bought a few more this morning at 13p. Delayed buy to come through? My guess is that you wont be up late on Friday morning tara - LOL

[tara7] 18/3/2009 11:15

Not me selling, at todays price one should be buying by the ton. Infact looks like some buying is going on in the background.

[barnetpeter] 18/3/2009 10:54

A few sells going through. Not you I hope tara.

[barnetpeter] 17/3/2009 15:08

Come on tara whats the latest? Have you phoned the company recently?

[tara7] 16/3/2009 12:01

The french investors have been dumping the shares they hold since July last year, and the MM may still have stock. The results on Fri will in my view show property and cash way above todays share price up to 5.3 times.!!!!!!! Some of that is at risk re the Canon site, but one still has around 45p of value and no debt. If Canon also comes good, [very high prop in my view] one is looking to get back 85p plus.

[jailbird] 16/3/2009 09:21

i do wonder these are this price still, if these offer such good value.

however seen that before as results prove otherwise.

But the risk of unknown is maybe keeping this down.

[barnetpeter] 16/3/2009 09:12

My post on CR thread:

OPF - I strongly recommend all here have a good look at this one. Results on Friday. Mkt cap is just over £1 million, cash around £9 million. Vote to come on whether to hand back cash to shareholders. 40p per share plus probably as against a mkt price of 13p.

Why did the price crash from 80p? Forced sellers in administration especially in Iceland.

You have never heard of this stock? Join the club.

So whats the catch you all say? Well, they entered into an arrangement to buy a block of property in Surrey. It has not even started to be built yet so can they get out of it (as they have with other such contracts?) is a key question. No idea. £4 million is ringfenced for this deal so that still leaves plenty.

Potentially this will be the biggest mover on Friday in the mkt. I struggle to see much downside. But I am also suspicious about what looks so cheap. Mind you, I can think of other examples where something looked a silly price and it was.

I hold - do your own research but do have a look at this (coz if Tara on that thread is right, I shall be back here taking all the credit. And if she is wrong, I will be blaming her).

[barnetpeter] 16/3/2009 08:44

If tara is right then these are a real bargain. That is a real "if" ....

[tara7] 13/3/2009 19:36

From RNS Dated 8/1/09, Results and boards recomendation in respect of the contiuation vote, [to be held at the agm] will be out on Fri 20th March 09.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 19:28

grtz, you may also like to know that the managers of OPF also run the OTTOMAN FUND listed on Aim. Here they are selling off all the property and sending the cash back to shareholders. With that fund being run down it must [in my view] be odds on they will vote for the same here. The directors seem to try and do the best for shareholders though they have made the wrong call over the last 3 years. I note as that fund winds down they have cut costs and kept the wage bill low.

[grlz] 13/3/2009 17:09

Tara - To expand my last post, I suspect the deposit is directly held by HH's solicitor's but regardless HH only have to deliver the apartments in order to complete their contract with OPF - financing purchase and those issues stand as OPFs problem - if OPF failed to complete and exchange their deposit would be lost.

The unknown question is can HH deliver the apartments - I can only speculate but it would be amazing if the bank, BOS didn't have a QS acting as its project monitor to value works progressed. Again speculation, but I doubt BOS would advance further tranches against a property market showing steep declines for 1/2 bed apartments in that area?

also, BOS may not have advanced a penny as HH may not be in compliance with the conditions precedent of the loan.

Both outcomes are positive for OPF as past recessions have shown OPF have terms regarding a completion schedule, which sooner or later will mean the contract being voided if nothing on site happens.

DYOR

[tara7] 13/3/2009 16:31

Re the bank loan, who is party to it? Haxted estates, Henry homes, OPF, RBS, and at one time could be the H/A. Plus for all we know others. My point is if just one of these bits has GONE WRONG over the last year the game is up. All in my view.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 16:26

More to the point vote next month by shareholders to get all the cash back if thats what shareholders want.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 16:23

Griz, site has not started been outside at 11 am today. Are you sure Henry homes holds the deposit, not sure on this but is often held by a third party, so if deal falls through it can come back to OPF. If you look at other deals that fell through deposits have come back. Henry Homes would only have a call on the cash IF they get built, so far not started. Your point on the downside if canon house cash is lost is not the case in my view. Company is now valued by the stockmarket at 1.4m pounds. After canon they still have that amount in cash , plus 10 flats they have just bought for 1.6m and 6 flats in the midlands and no debt.= over 40p per share.

[grlz] 13/3/2009 16:05

tara - I am not near the site to be able to tell if works have begun but I would be surprised if it's not going forward as the bank, BOS have already tomb-stoned the deal - if it had been killed I would suspect the notice would have been removed.

My own speculative thought is BOS have advanced the 1st tranche, but are now holding back further tranches due to valuation declines, which are evident or there are problems with the contractors or collateral warranties etc. Perhaps Broomfield Housing Assoc were not secure buyers..... who knows

None of this helps OPF as Henry Homes hold deposit and have call upon a cash backed guarantee, although I expect if the project halted OPF could have some wriggle room based on reading their previous contract terms.

Given this project can turn OPF financially inside out any positive news could flip the share price as much as negative news could crush it

all imho DYOR

[barnetpeter] 13/3/2009 15:45

Well lets hope next Friday is not a huge shock then!!!!

[tara7] 13/3/2009 14:55

Even with no cash from canon house each share is worth over 40p in cash and property in my view.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 14:37

Time and time again i come back to the 21M bank loan, if all was ok from day one, why was the job not started. Could it be that if values fall,as they have done RBS wants more cash in the pot to make sure the money they lend is safe.!! They knew from day one that OPF only had 4.250m to play with if prices dropped. The loan conditions will also be very strong due to the fact that the deal was done long AFTER the C.Crunch had started.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 14:28

Canon house now fails on at least 6 points, first, values have dropped big time, the shops are in my view not worth 20k each [fact is not enough trade to make any shop pay.] No one wants the office part. The H/A can just lower the price as they have every builder under the sun after quick cash. How the hell with no investors, no first time buyers and no mortages above 75% will they shift these off plan.?

[tara7] 13/3/2009 14:22

grlz, thanks for the above. First point to make is the fact that as of today no work has started at Canon house. It is now 16 months since the deal was done with OPF. Why?. Next point the bank loan of 21m pounds may not be to Henry homes but to Haxted estates who are i think the owners. Henry homes may just be fronting the deal, [ if you look on Henry homes web site you will see they work for banks and builders who have gone bust.] It may be the case Haxted Estates are bust or going bust or way overstreched with other sites, [they bought loads of mixed use land with debt at the top of the market] and the RBS loan could be mortaged on some of the other sites, [that have also fallen like a stone.

[tara7] 13/3/2009 14:12

barnetpeter, OPE have put down 1.250,000M for canon house and hold 3.000,000 in cash that is ring fenced. See accounts where it tells us this.

[grlz] 13/3/2009 13:17

Tara - I agree Cannon House aka "Signature" isn't looking that hot (imho) similar finished developments in the area like the new-built Salisbury and Chatham House developments are being marketed at £188k (pre-incentive) for 2 bedroom apartments
source rightmove -

imho - OPF's average of £211k appears ambitious - I cannot see how OPF can obtain a positive valuation for this development given the comparables available also the project looks to be fully funded so the chances of OPF escaping look slim

found a useful link for the banking deal:


Generally, deposit returns from Tring (£292k) and Liverpool (£336k) are positive but ongoing investment management fees and the admin costs are imho excessive.

OPF also holds 6 flats in Leicester valued at £870k (£145k average per flat) - again area prices for similar are lower with new build apartments at the nearby "Atrium" being offered at £109k on rightmove (pre-incentives)

DYOR /all imho