Off-plan Fund Share Discussion Threads

[relishing] 24/3/2009 10:15

Those 50k trades look more like buys than sells?
Or I suppose the lower priced one could be a sell.

[barnetpeter] 24/3/2009 09:23

Forced seller still around methinks.

[tara7] 24/3/2009 07:40

OPF can also buy back its own shares anytime.!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[keya5000] 23/3/2009 21:19

Looks like the market was very late in digesting these results, quite a lot of data and not a lot of market time between publication and close.
At anything below 80p these are a steal, the management seem astute and the fund looks very well controlled and risk hedged.
I would expect a substantial increase from here starting first thing in the morning.
Thanks Tara, without your initial comments and research I would not have took up a position here. Lets hope the next few days reap the rewards we have been waiting.

[tara7] 23/3/2009 19:13

Yep, could we say the bank loan on the terms agreed over a year ago, is now a non starter.? If so the shares are worth around 85p, with upside. Have to say the bank will have done its own valuation on the 1st year anv[a few weeks ago] and may well have killed the deal full stop.

[borchardt] 23/3/2009 18:07

Positive results with a realistic outlook. Given that it is now unlikely that a vote to wind company up and return cash to shareholders will take place it is now evident that there should be a higher than normal discount to NAV for this stock.
On a long term basis a well funded company like this will benefit greatly when the market improves - on a 3 to 5 year basis and subject to prudent management we could easily see a share price of 150p.
Short term these results should improve the share price and so long as there are no more distressed sellers we should be able to reach 25-30p

[grlz] 23/3/2009 17:38

tara it's not RBS but HBOS who are lending to HH.

The valuation point for Cannon St is September '08 so its probably has fallen further since and the Auditors have stated as much in their notes.

Ironically this terrible news is good news for OPF as it looks like HH are having probs negotiating price for the remainder (56 units to a Housing Assoc) at terms acceptable to their proposed Bank facility, which appears to have a standard min/max sale price condition, which HH as yet can't reconcile.

The clock is also ticking as OPFs contracted stop point is 01/12 estimating a build schedule anticipated to run 18 mths (if I read correctly) this only allows HH to resolve their position within the next year

I doubt it's achievable as the HBOS deal was structured in the heights of the boom with valuation points to match - if HH strike any deal with a HA to sell the 56 these will be deeply discounted below I would guess what OPF are paying. This I assume is why HH can't close a deal as it would mean revisiting the Bank facility to renegotiate terms with HBOS who would probably tell 'em to f-off and counting themselves lucky to exit.

one way bet for OPF it either goes well or they can exit it based on decisions taken by HBOS

imho/dyor

[barnetpeter] 23/3/2009 17:09

Tara - this was a good spot by you. Well done. My view is that we will see this drift up towards the 40p level. Little interest in this and low volumes traded. Its a steal and the biggest discount I can remember. The property has to be completed by 2012 and there is always the prospect of it being completed - remember this is housing association public housing for which the government is keen to finance. It really does not matter - the proprties they have let out are easily worth the mkt cap alone.

[tara7] 23/3/2009 17:05

My view stays the same, all the cash comes back from Wallington, [85p] shares cost me 9p.

[tara7] 23/3/2009 17:03

Money from RBS still not lent, Value of the site fallen 65% so what will be the New terms for the builder a year later.? He the builder will just have lower sales values from the H/A no cash for the shops no one wants plus a lending rate of 12%-15%.!!! All in my view.

[barnetpeter] 23/3/2009 16:56

No debt at all, loads of flats let out, three million in cash ringfenced and the rest covered by insurance. Must be worth 30p. Shows what bargains the mkt is producing.

[jamie62] 23/3/2009 16:31

in fact, one of the largest shareholders selling at any price. This is a crazy discount to NAV

[tara7] 23/3/2009 16:29

Reason for the drop was a seller who sold at ANY price, From the BOARD not me.

[tara7] 23/3/2009 16:26

So after well over a year still no deal for Henry homes with any H/A at Wallington. Next poor Henry homes is left with 22,000 sq ft of unwanted shops. RBS has not yet lent the money, and in my view it will have been a FIXED rate[high] when the deal was done, in Feb last year. Any H/A wants 30% off, that makes the whole idea of building on the site a dead duck.

[barnetpeter] 23/3/2009 16:26

Yes it does although they cannot pay out the cash held even if the vote is to close the fund down. Hard to think of a better long-term investment imo.

[relishing] 23/3/2009 16:12

Seems to back up what tara has been saying.

[relishing] 23/3/2009 16:09

They are very surprised the share price is so low relative to the NAV:

"Performance

The audited net asset value ('NAV') of the Fund at 30 September 2008 was £9.1 million (2007:
£9.5 million). The NAV per ordinary share has reduced to 81.2p at year-end from 85.1p at 30 September 2007, largely due to the Fund exiting the Liverpool development and the write-off of attributable
recognised profit.

Whilst this asset value performance is reasonable against the extremely difficult economic backdrop, the Fund's share price performance has been poor. It fell 27 per cent. from 74.3p to 54.5p during the financial year (implying a widening discount of 33 per cent. to NAV per share) and since the year-end has fallen further sharply, touching a low of 8.5p before recovering and settling recently around 12.5p. Much of this recent fall appears to be as a result of one of the Fund's largest shareholders apparently willing to sell at any level to dispose of its entire holding. Given the historic low levels of liquidity in the Fund's shares, the low share price is not surprising but the discount to NAV is now stark. Shares in residential property funds are unlikely to be rated favourably in the prevailing climate and the Fund is arguably too small to generate much analysis in the market, but the Board and Manager are surprised at the size of the discount to NAV and that the introduction of an annual continuation vote at last year's annual general meeting ('AGM') has not had a more positive impact on the discount."

[relishing] 23/3/2009 16:04

Results are out - look very positive at a quick glance. NAV 81.2p/share!

[shrewd_mole] 21/3/2009 10:19

I bought in last week Tara, thx for your home work on this one.
Looks an interesting bet mate.
Good luck. Have a pleasant weekend

[tara7] 20/3/2009 18:03

We will just have to wait and see, but as i see it the upside is huge up to 90p and with a yes vote the downside is a min of 3 times todays share price. !!!

[grlz] 20/3/2009 17:49

We will see but as I stated the accounts published to date are not complicated to read, nor would I expect complicated to produced - I appreciate the actual contracts are commercially sensitive, so the terms we don't know BUT I expect the problem "could" be how OPF is referencing the booking of property assets or a note relating to contingent liabilities both scenarios are speculation on my part, but we will see next week.

At least the Accountants statement will gain more interest than it usually does..

DYOR

[tara7] 20/3/2009 16:46

May i also point out that a few weeks ago lumps of shares [400,000] changed hands at around 13p. To me, that points to a buyer or buyers who know more than you or i.

[tara7] 20/3/2009 16:42

Griz, thanks for your view, mine is and has not been the same. You and I have no idea what part of the accounts is the reason for the late results. We have been told they should be out next week. Canon house money is ring fenced, it says that in the accounts so the Max loss is 4.25m pounds. That gives the company cash and property of around 40p per share. As stated by me on a number of times if canon house is not built OPF get that cash back as well [40p.] As of last week canon house had not started and is well over a year late.

[grlz] 20/3/2009 16:00

The signature is fully sold and funded - the down side is HH found the perfect mug punter in the form of OPF to buy the bulk of it - sales are OPFs problem

Any notes on the accounts basically means an accountants qualification.

The accountant isn't happy by the look of it

all imho