Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Novae Grp LSE:NVA London Ordinary Share GB00B40SF849 ORD 112.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +39.00p +6.18% 670.00p 663.00p 666.50p 675.00p 606.00p 633.00p 695,428.00 16:35:17
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Nonlife Insurance 638.1 55.4 81.0 8.3 431.65

Novae Share Discussion Threads

Showing 351 to 375 of 375 messages
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
08/12/2016
14:10
Such is non-life, nature of the beast.....down 13% overall which hurts a tad. Having had time to reflect, have decided to add at some stage. Will watch a day or two. Bizarrely, reckon this doesn't diminish the attractiveness of NVA as a takeover target, perhaps the opposite, easier prey when 'wounded'.....(that's the end of my glass half-full for the day)
soundbuy
08/12/2016
12:48
RBC and Canaccord are brokers to Novae RBC As a result of the change to guidance we increase our combined ratio forecast to 99.5% for 2016 from our previous 97.3% estimate. The company also commented that despite the incidence of larger risk losses and catastrophe losses increasing, the attritional loss ratio has remained steady despite pricing pressures. Although increasing bond yields are positive for insurers, with the Lloyd's insurers, the decline in the value of the bonds is recognised through earnings. As a result, the near 30% increase in 2 year government bond yields since the US election has led to a significant reduction in investment income for Novae in 2016. As a result we reduce our 2016E investment income expectation by 17.5% to £31m. Following a review of the company’s accounting policies, Novae has amended its accounting treatment for deferred acquisition costs, which is subjective in nature as it is based on a number of factors including the expected earnings pattern of insurance contracts. This has resulted in a write-down of c.£17m deferred acquisition costs (relating to a period in the region of ten years) to the 2016 opening balance sheet. For the same reason, the deferred acquisition cost charge for 2016 will increase by c. £5m (reflected within the new combined ratio guidance by c.80bps based on our estimates). Following on from the trading statement, we make a reduction to our 2016E profit before tax of 26%. In addition, we reduce our 2017-18E earnings by 4% on average reflecting higher combined ratios and lower growth than we had previously expected. As a result of the changes to our estimates, we reduce our price target to 900p from 925p. Canaccord Novae warned on Thursday morning that elevated levels of large risk and catastrophe losses flagged at Q3 had continued into Q4. It now expects a full year combined ratio in the range of 98-100%, against 96.1% at H1 and our 96.4% FY forecast. £5m of this impact is to come from an accounting reappraisal of treatment of deferred acquisition cost policy. A bigger £17m hit from this accounting will also be taken to the opening 2016 NAV, obviously impacting forecasts for closing NAV, but with no impact on cashflow or economic capital. There will also be an additional hit to profits from the sharp rise in bond yields since Trump’s election – US government yields in the three to five year range have risen c.30%. This also should not impact economic capital negatively. Confluence of large losses, higher yields and DAC hit Management said that the additional cost of large risk losses did not relate to a single new event – Hurricane Matthew is now looking at the top end of the £10-15m range given, while Novae has incurred losses from the New Zealand earthquake, and other losses have also moved against the group. The statement makes the point that the attritional loss ratio has not deteriorated, and we note also that none of the risk losses have come from new initiatives by class that have driven top-line growth. We expect peers to have had comparable experience. The same will be true of the investment income hit, albeit Novae is slightly longer duration in liabilities than its quoted peers. The DAC issue came to light as part of a regular accounting review and relates in part to some items that should not have been treated as acquisition costs (eg some professional fees and claims handling costs) and some bona fide costs that had been deferred for too long (ie into year three when policy earns in years one and two). Material cuts to 2016E EPS and tangible NAV We have made a material cut to 2016E EPS of 40%, based on a 99.5% combined ratio – c.one-third of the cut is due to lower investment income (this could still move materially by year-end). While management has said that 2016 large losses will not impact on underwriting strategy going forward, we have assumed a 0.5% higher loss ratio going forward. This impact has been partly offset by higher yields going forward, for a 3% cut to 2017E and 2018E EPS. With the dividend over 2x covered, we leave DPS forecasts unchanged. Note also the 11% cut to tangible NAV per share, of which c.4% is due to the £17m DAC writedown to book. Time will be needed to rebuild performance; downgrade to HOLD, TP to 800p We are disappointed the 9m performance has worsened in the final quarter. We believe it has been a bad, but not exceptional, year for large losses at an industry level. NVA is likely more exposed than quoted Lloyd’s peers due to its narrower scope of business. On a material cut to NAV, and modestly lowered earnings, we see limited positive catalysts until full year results at the earliest. On an unchanged target multiple of 1.45x 2016E tangible NAV per share (versus peers on 1.7-1.8x, albeit consensus NAVs do likely need to come down for higher bond yields), we lower our price target from 900p to 800p, and our recommendation to HOLD (Buy). Our new price target equates to 12x 2017E EPS from 13x versus peers trading on 12-14x, for a 4% yield, with peers yielding under 3%.
spob
08/12/2016
12:05
Canaccord (H/T FT AV) Novae warned on Thursday morning that elevated levels of large risk and catastrophe losses flagged at Q3 had continued into Q4. It now expects a full year combined ratio in the range of 98-100%, against 96.1% at H1 and our 96.4% FY forecast. £5m of this impact is to come from an accounting reappraisal of treatment of deferred acquisition cost policy. A bigger £17m hit from this accounting will also be taken to the opening 2016 NAV, obviously impacting forecasts for closing NAV, but with no impact on cashflow or economic capital. There will also be an additional hit to profits from the sharp rise in bond yields since Trump’s election – US government yields in the three to five year range have risen c.30%. This also should not impact economic capital negatively. Confluence of large losses, higher yields and DAC hit Management said that the additional cost of large risk losses did not relate to a single new event – Hurricane Matthew is now looking at the top end of the £10-15m range given, while Novae has incurred losses from the New Zealand earthquake, and other losses have also moved against the group. The statement makes the point that the attritional loss ratio has not deteriorated, and we note also that none of the risk losses have come from new initiatives by class that have driven top-line growth. We expect peers to have had comparable experience. The same will be true of the investment income hit, albeit Novae is slightly longer duration in liabilities than its quoted peers. The DAC issue came to light as part of a regular accounting review and relates in part to some items that should not have been treated as acquisition costs (eg some professional fees and claims handling costs) and some bona fide costs that had been deferred for too long (ie into year three when policy earns in years one and two). Material cuts to 2016E EPS and tangible NAV We have made a material cut to 2016E EPS of 40%, based on a 99.5% combined ratio – c.one-third of the cut is due to lower investment income (this could still move materially by year-end). While management has said that 2016 large losses will not impact on underwriting strategy going forward, we have assumed a 0.5% higher loss ratio going forward. This impact has been partly offset by higher yields going forward, for a 3% cut to 2017E and 2018E EPS. With the dividend over 2x covered, we leave DPS forecasts unchanged. Note also the 11% cut to tangible NAV per share, of which c.4% is due to the £17m DAC writedown to book. Time will be needed to rebuild performance; downgrade to HOLD, TP to 800p We are disappointed the 9m performance has worsened in the final quarter. We believe it has been a bad, but not exceptional, year for large losses at an industry level. NVA is likely more exposed than quoted Lloyd’s peers due to its narrower scope of business. On a material cut to NAV, and modestly lowered earnings, we see limited positive catalysts until full year results at the earliest. On an unchanged target multiple of 1.45x 2016E tangible NAV per share (versus peers on 1.7-1.8x, albeit consensus NAVs do likely need to come down for higher bond yields), we lower our price target from 900p to 800p, and our recommendation to HOLD (Buy). Our new price target equates to 12x 2017E EPS from 13x versus peers trading on 12-14x, for a 4% yield, with peers yielding under 3%.
soundbuy
08/12/2016
12:04
RBC.(H/T FT AV) As a result of the change to guidance we increase our combined ratio forecast to 99.5% for 2016 from our previous 97.3% estimate. The company also commented that despite the incidence of larger risk losses and catastrophe losses increasing, the attritional loss ratio has remained steady despite pricing pressures. Although increasing bond yields are positive for insurers, with the Lloyd's insurers, the decline in the value of the bonds is recognised through earnings. As a result, the near 30% increase in 2 year government bond yields since the US election has led to a significant reduction in investment income for Novae in 2016. As a result we reduce our 2016E investment income expectation by 17.5% to £31m. Following a review of the company’s accounting policies, Novae has amended its accounting treatment for deferred acquisition costs, which is subjective in nature as it is based on a number of factors including the expected earnings pattern of insurance contracts. This has resulted in a write-down of c.£17m deferred acquisition costs (relating to a period in the region of ten years) to the 2016 opening balance sheet. For the same reason, the deferred acquisition cost charge for 2016 will increase by c. £5m (reflected within the new combined ratio guidance by c.80bps based on our estimates). Following on from the trading statement, we make a reduction to our 2016E profit before tax of 26%. In addition, we reduce our 2017-18E earnings by 4% on average reflecting higher combined ratios and lower growth than we had previously expected. As a result of the changes to our estimates, we reduce our price target to 900p from 925p.
soundbuy
08/12/2016
11:42
LONDON (Alliance News) - Specialist insurer Novae Group PLC said Thursday that increased losses in the second half mean its underwriting profit is likely to be lower than previous expectations. Novae said that in the second half of 2016 it has seen a "continued prevalence of larger individual risk and catastrophe losses". The company said that while its attritional loss ratio has remained steady, the impact of larger individual risk losses "means that underwriting contribution for the year is likely to be lower than our prior expectations". Novae forecast its overall combined ratio, a key measure of profit for underwriters, to be within 98% and 100% for 2016 as a whole. The further below 100% the ratio is, the more profitable the underwriting business. The insurer noted that combined ratio includes the effects of an accounting change to its deferred acquisition costs. Novae said the change is expected to result in a write down of its deferred acquisition cost asset by approximately GBP17.0 million, and an increased in its deferred acquisition costs charge for 2016 of approximately GBP5.0 million. Novae said the change does not affect its free-cash flow. Shares in Novae were down 12% at 731.00 pence at the open on Thursday. * currently 672p down 19%
spob
08/12/2016
11:31
677p, Mcap 436m, Nos 64.4m 1 year 5Y
spob
08/12/2016
09:00
Ouch.........
soundbuy
08/12/2016
08:14
Fundamentally strong, niche market, low valuation. Buying opertunity? Will someone take this over once the dust settles?
tintin82
23/9/2016
15:12
Well, disappointing of late though reassured by the Chief Underwriting Officer's purchase of 30k Agree re off the radar and fallout re BREXIT pro leave vote comments above.
soundbuy
23/9/2016
15:08
Yes they have a good yield but the next ex dividend date is at the end of April next year - who knows how the BREXIT negotiations will be progressing by then and there's the US election before that.... just my thoughts.
hawaly
23/9/2016
13:40
but even without a possible bid the dividend is pretty decent at nearly 5% including special so on that basis alone one would have thought they were desirable! Perhaps too far off the radar of most?
janeann
23/9/2016
10:47
I think a lot of people are hanging on for a takeover approach, their resilience is being tested by what looks like a general malaise in attitudes to anything financial post the BREXIT pro leave vote.
hawaly
23/9/2016
08:16
surprised at the decline in share price especially given todays comment ... The Company's outlook for the full year remains in line with previous guidance; as previously announced the Company will provide an update on Q3 trading on 9th November.
janeann
12/9/2016
14:49
Resilient today......
soundbuy
11/8/2016
13:57
Yes - it is steadily creeping up again; would be very nice if it gets to 900p, soundbuy
janeann
10/8/2016
09:16
Steady - resistance at 848-850p ish level - then 900p
soundbuy
03/8/2016
07:49
Was quite relaxed about RNS going into the open. Hope they never put out a bad RNS if this is the reaction !
davr0s
03/8/2016
07:36
Off the radar of most PIs.....liquidity wise not great so prone to 'lurching', which works both ways... Agreed re T/O, a matter of time....happy holding though thought we'd see 850p before 750p again.......
soundbuy
03/8/2016
07:25
The share price action always seems surprising on NVA but the complete lack of response to what seems like a decent set of results is quite unbelievable.
janeann
03/8/2016
07:02
Cannot fathom how this has not been approached for takeover. With Sterling plunge and a very solid business model surely there must be interest from overseas.
tintin82
03/8/2016
06:56
Lot to like...
soundbuy
03/8/2016
06:26
Strong results - good move in investments from corporates to Govt debt must have really benefitted from Brexit, plus US$ portfolio from translation gain. NAV per share now 575p. Seems well placed and still prospective yield of over 4%.
18bt
03/8/2016
06:14
Very solid results. Impressed with the new investment strategy and subsequent returns. Very positive comments re Brexit 'confident will flourish regardless'
tintin82
26/7/2016
18:36
I'm in for a swing up to 900p
davr0s
21/7/2016
10:52
Fair vols and not even midday........
soundbuy
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older
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