Novae Share Discussion Threads

[jimbob220] 05/2/2007 16:44

ello ello?

[18bt] 10/1/2007 07:49

Confident statement from Amlin on renewal rates today agrees with what most in the market are saying about 1/1/07 renewals. Novae in direct classes which are more likely to be under pressure, but the PI cycle should start trending up soon. Have not seen anywhere that we are expecting a trading update, but will be a good sign of normalising of investor relations if they put one out.

[miamisteve] 10/1/2007 03:40

Not out yet. No longer with a notifiable interest means they could be holding upto 3% still.

[jancarl1] 09/1/2007 14:46

Seems like ABN is out, which as far as I would understand it must clear the overhang from the open offer. We should be able to play catch up with the market from here. 40p far too low imho.

[miamisteve] 03/1/2007 08:39

I came across it because I'm invested elsewhere in the sector with Catlin and Chaucer.

They are bullish on the sector though imo conservative with their targets. NVA's is 40p

[18bt] 03/1/2007 07:45

miami, useful info. 1.25x a clean company still looks good value compared to 1.8-2.2x for most other Lloyd's vehicles (BRIT excepted).

[miamisteve] 03/1/2007 06:16

Read the UBS report. They have a buy rating but have the book value at around 1.25x now because there will be a £33m (4.4p a share) cost to buyout their back book.

[18bt] 02/1/2007 16:40

Topped up with a few. If forecasts prove correct and no dividend, these are still standing at NAV. If a dividend, even better though not expecting that until 2007 final

[qs9] 21/12/2006 15:00

given recent strong announcements in the sector, has this one been overlooked?

[jhan66] 15/12/2006 16:18

you may well be correct & if so it's good news.
it pre-dates my knowledge of the company. I just assumed they bought them in the market from the 15/6 rns:-

LONDON (AFX) - Novae Group PLC said that ABN AMRO Bank NV's London Branch
has bought a 14.93 pct stake in the company.

[jancarl1] 15/12/2006 16:07

I thought they ended up with the overhang from the underwritten 1:1 offer at 30p. To take the fee and sell the shares off at marginal profit seems fine to me from the underwriting team's perspective. For them at first sight it looked like a complete desaster, since the placement more or less completely failed in June. From today's perspective it would appear that the near desaster turned in a nice although not spectacular profit.

[jhan66] 15/12/2006 13:11

Curious to know why ABN thought these were worth buying in June (15% @ around 27p), to now sell down. I suppose they must know what they're doing, but seems short sighted to me.

Price is still strong & with luck we'll see a useful rise when they finish selling

[jancarl1] 15/12/2006 13:00

Wow, seems like ABN is able to offload much quicker than expected. Overhang might be cleared by year end if not already. Time for a top up.

[slainegardener] 07/12/2006 11:08

I understand ubs has issued a note on UK insurance shares in which they have made a buy recommendation on Novae.

[welsheagle] 05/12/2006 19:18

Following the vesting of certain awards made under the Group's 1999 Long Term
Incentive Plan ("the Plan") on 18 November 2003, the Company was advised on 5
December 2006 by Ogier Employee Benefit Trustee Limited ("the trustee"), as
trustee of the Group's Employee Share Ownership Trust ("the trust"), that the
following directors acquired Ordinary shares of 10 pence each in the Company, as
set out below, on 20 November 2006. The share price on 20 November 2006, the
date of vesting, was 30.875 pence.

+-----------------+------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
|Name of Director | Number of |Percentage of |Total |Percentage of |
| | shares | issued class |beneficial |class |
| | acquired | | |represented by|
| | | |Interest |total |
| | | |following |beneficial |
| | | |purchase* |interest |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
+-----------------+------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
|JR Adams | 29,500| 0.004%| 1,303,617| 0.178%|
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
+-----------------+------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
|ORP Corbett | 118,000| 0.016%| 1,085,909| 0.148%|
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
+-----------------+------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+

[jancarl1] 05/12/2006 09:41

ABN has sold 7mn shares over the last months. With some 44mn (6%) still to go this may well take another 3 to six months unless liquidity increases substantially.

[welsheagle] 04/12/2006 18:45

Thanks, Jancarl1

[robow] 04/12/2006 15:05

overhang cleared?

[jancarl1] 04/12/2006 11:07

Welsheagle,

one reason would be, that the Refs have not been updated for the 1:1 placement in June 06. PE ratio therefore doubles and eps growth halves. Still impressive numbers though.

[rambutan2] 03/12/2006 19:42

we all know why!

[welsheagle] 03/12/2006 17:24

Latest 'Company Refs' has Novae with prospective PE ratio of 3.64, which is the best in the Smallcap, and a forecast growth in eps of 671%?.
Why is this company so lowly rated?.

[jancarl1] 02/12/2006 14:17

I guess there is still a lot of stock overhang from the placement at 30p. So whenever the share price goes to 31p there is a constant flow of sells which is good, if you want to build up your position.

[iroll] 29/11/2006 17:26

Buys possibly influenced by Amlin's positive Trading Statement today.......

Charles Philipps. Chief Executive of Amlin added:

'2006 performance to date has exceeded expectations owing to an exceptionally
low level of claims in a year when we have increased premiums, particularly for
catastrophe exposed business. If this continues, we expect the full year result
to be well ahead of current market forecasts.'

[robow] 29/11/2006 16:56

quite a few buys today-well about 7 million actually and the price hardly moves

[18bt] 13/11/2006 08:57

JC,

Good summary. What I liked about the Moody's report is recognition from the outside world that reserving issues should now be dead as a negative. I would add one thing to the +ve: the underwriting leverage point: NVA will add far more in % terms to its NAV per share than others in the sector if it is profitable. As these are usually rated on premium to NAV, gives better upside (but also greater downside!).

BT