Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Novae Group LSE:NVA London Ordinary Share GB00B40SF849 ORD 112.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00p -0.14% 710.50p 710.50p 712.00p 714.50p 710.50p 710.50p 398,585 16:29:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Nonlife Insurance 677.8 23.7 34.3 20.7 457.74

Novae Share Discussion Threads

Showing 351 to 375 of 375 messages
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/8/2017
17:21
Why did they feel the need to increase their offer? No apparent rival bid
makinbuks
25/8/2017
07:48
will someone else jump in at the last minute always a possibility i guess
spob
25/8/2017
07:47
715p increased offer Https://www.investegate.co.uk/novae-group-plc--nva-/bus/increased-and-final-recommended-cash-offer-for----/20170825070000Z6258/
spob
06/7/2017
21:40
FT Alphaville today 11:23 am BE And still on M&A, Novae! Finally! BE After being speculated for approximately as long as any of our lifetimes, Novae becomes the latest Lloyds insurer to be taken out. 11:24 am BE Axis the buyer. Announcement at 10.30pm last night, for no apparent reason other than to mess with our lives. PM Presumably that announcement in response to a checking call from a journalist... PM (But leads us back down that path we didn't want to go) 11:25 am BE Possibly, I guess, but didn't look that way. PM (tl;dr -- if regulation forces companies to screw over journalists checking stories, the result will be unchecked stories getting published...) BE Anyway, price looks reasonable rather than generous. 11:26 am BE Here's Peel Hunt. BE AXIS, a leading Bermudian (re)insurer, has announced it is acquiring Novae for 700p per share in cash equivalent to 1.4x our 2017e TNAV (1.5x fully diluted). The deal offers a compelling strategic rationale and allows AXIS to strengthen its position within Lloyd’s. It also allows Novae to continue to invest and grow its Lloyd’s specialty insurance business backed by a strong capital base. The deal creates a diversified Top 10 specialty insurer within Lloyd’s and is financially attractive for AXIS, providing both top-line growth and cost synergies. The purchase price offers a 20% premium to NVA shareholders at a multiple (1.4x P/TNAV vs NVA 1.2x at yesterday’s close) that seems justified given the transition the company is going through and the returns we expect the company to generate in the next few years, and it is c5% above our TP. We believe the deal should be welcomed as AXIS provides deal certainty and offers Novae the opportunity to continue its growth strategy where it is complementary to AXIS. BE The multiple to TNAV compares to an average 1.4x TNAV (1.5x fully diluted) paid for Bermudian insurers and 1.6x on average for Lloyd’s insurers (excluding the MS Amlin deal). We believe the multiple is justified given the return outlook for NVA from 2018 onwards in soft market conditions. 11:27 am BE The combination of AXIS ($5bn premiums) and Novae ($1.2bn premium income) lifts AXIS into the Top 10 insurers at Lloyd’s with a combined premium volume of $1.5bn within Lloyd’s and a total group premium income of $6.2bn. It accelerates AXIS’s international growth plans and allows for further investment in Novae’s strategy to build out its ‘invest underwriting classes’. It also shifts AXIS business mix away from reinsurance (currently 45% of GWP) towards specialty lines with Novae’s portfolio providing many new underwriting classes and a complementary book in other areas. Hence, there seems to be minimal overlap and a solid strategic rationale to expand the Lloyd’s specialty operations. AXIS highlights the deal will create meaningful top-line synergies and $50m of pre-tax cost synergies. AXIS states the transaction is accretive to EPS in year 1 excluding synergies, sees high single digit accretion in year 2, is accretive to operating RoE and has a minimal impact on AXIS TNAV. We estimate the initial RoI on the deal, excluding synergies, is 7.5% assuming £35m of Novae 2018e net profit and 11% RoI in year 2. Hence the deal looks attractive for AXIS shareholders providing deal certainty. BE And KBW from the perspective of the buyer. BE Although there’s definitely some scarcity value to the few remaining Lloyd’s insurers, the price seems a little high to us given Novae’s May 10, 2017, guidance of a 2017 underwriting loss and a 97-98% 2018 combined ratio. We'd previously viewed AXIS more as a buyer than a seller, and this announcement makes a sale of AXIS even less likely, which should remove most of any takeout premium embedded in the shares. (It does make a bigger and riskier transformative deal less likely.) Second, we think this deal makes strategic sense for AXIS – specialty insurers are increasingly competing on the bases of scale and diversification – although persistently adverse pricing (Novae reported an overall 2% decrease in May) will probably exacerbate the employee distraction and premium spillage risks inherent in almost all P&C M&A. 11:28 am BE So ........ who's left? Lancashire Holdings Ltd (LRE:LSE): Last: 736.50, up 26 (+3.66%), High: 741.00, Low: 716.50, Volume: 256.74k Beazley PLC (BEZ:LSE): Last: 511.85, up 6.85 (+1.36%), High: 515.50, Low: 502.50, Volume: 457.75k 11:30 am Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LSE): Last: 1,291, up 9 (+0.70%), High: 1,294, Low: 1,279, Volume: 93.96k BE Was about to say Amlin, but that went in 2015 (and was one of ours I think). BE Are there any others? 11:31 am PM There's enough to be getting on with BE Note, by the way, that Neptune (15% holder) is on the wires arguing that it wants more money. BE (Well, yes. Of course it does.) 11:33 am BE Note also that it's post Novae's profit warning in December so could plausibly be seen as opportunistic if you ignore the reasons for that profit warning and the rebasing of forecasts that followed. BE Still, perhaps Neptune can cause trouble here. Wouldn't be wildly surprised to see the likes of Elliot get involved either, given this is their kind of position. 11:34 am
spob
06/7/2017
09:32
Axis Capital to buy UK insurer Novae for £468m Acquisition by Bermuda-based group will leave just 3 listed Lloyd’s insurers on the LSE Financial Times by: Oliver Ralph in London July 6, 2017 Novae, one of the few remaining listed Lloyd’s insurers, is to be bought by Bermuda-based Axis Capital for £468m. The deal will leave just three specialist Lloyd’s insurers listed on the London Stock Exchange: Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire. A number of deals in recent years has seen others such as Amlin and Brit bought by overseas rivals. Axis’ acquisition of Novae comes as the fall in sterling has made UK assets cheaper for overseas buyers. On Wednesday Worldpay, a payments processor, agreed to be bought by US-based Vantiv for £9.1bn. Axis will pay 700p per share for Novae, a 20 per cent premium to the share price on July 4 and a multiple of 1.5 times the company’s book value. Albert Benchimol, chief executive of Axis, said: “We are very pleased to announce this proposed acquisition of Novae, which will create [an approximately] $2bn player in the London specialty market, anchored as a top 10 insurer in the Lloyd’s market. The acquisition is fully aligned with Axis’s international specialty insurance growth strategy and will combine two highly complementary businesses, substantially enhancing our depth and breadth of product, underwriting expertise and leadership capabilities to better serve our clients and brokers.” This is not the first time that Axis has tried to expand through acquisitions. In 2015 it lost out in a bidding war for Partner Re, which was eventually sold to Exor, the investment vehicle of the Agnelli family, for $6.9bn. Novae has gone through a troubled period. The shares, which reached almost 850p last year, fell sharply after a profit warning last December, when the company said that a number of large individual losses would affect its results. It has long been talked of as a potential takeover target. John Hastings-Bass, chairman of Novae, said: “Over recent years, Novae has made significant progress on a standalone basis in developing its underwriting franchise and growing premiums in its targeted lines of business. However, it remains a relatively small player in a global industry. Axis is a substantial and successful business which represents an excellent partner for the Novae business, its customers and employees.” Axis was advised by Credit Suisse and Fenchurch Advisory Partners. Novae was advised by Evercore.
spob
06/7/2017
08:36
707p bid. Mr market expecting a counter bid?
santar
06/7/2017
07:54
As this was trading @ £9 recently disappointed at poor take out price
fs360
06/7/2017
07:22
just a bit annoyed i didn't double up at 5 quid, as i did consider doing so musn't grumble
spob
06/7/2017
07:15
Disappointing. Wonder if the price has gradually been wound down deliberately.
janeann
06/7/2017
07:02
700p cash offer
spob
06/7/2017
07:01
Happy with that - 700p cash
gersemi
19/5/2017
19:03
Hi all, I bought into Novae today at 558p. This looks like an interesting value investment. I've written up my thoughts about it on my blog and would appreciate any thoughts / feedback http://www.theisamillionaire.com/investment-analysis-novae-group/ cheers
itr7
12/5/2017
11:34
FWIW New Tip Update in IC. They have moved to a SELL recommendation. Benign claims catch up with Novae - HTTP://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2017/05/10/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/benign-claims-catch-up-with-novae-JbWDfNAvBGxPo0JKauHfYM/article.html ... While it is focusing on classes where it sees a competitive advantage, it's hard to see Novae making any demonstrable progress in the foreseeable future. At 619p, its shares are up from our buy tip (486p, 16 May 2013), but with interest rates set to remain low and premiums remaining under pressure, it's time to exit our long-standing buy recommendation. Sell.
speedsgh
11/5/2017
09:12
Still in, concur with the above, and as posted some time ago, such is non-life, nature of the beast, from the Canaccord note 'We believe it has been a bad, but not exceptional, year for large losses at an industry level'......management seems proactive in changes announced, will hopefully be a driver going forward..... Glass still half full, just.........
soundbuy
11/5/2017
07:08
well I agree deadly; disappointed at the gradual decline. Mind it is a pretty complex read and I begin to wonder if I fully understand it all.
janeann
10/5/2017
15:46
The TU looked pretty good to me, but Mr. market not impressed.
deadly
27/2/2017
12:09
Takeover coming? Bet someone keeping a keen on on this one. Niche market insurance always demands a premium. Wouldn't be suprised to wake to lovely rns sometime soon.
tintin82
08/12/2016
14:10
Such is non-life, nature of the beast.....down 13% overall which hurts a tad. Having had time to reflect, have decided to add at some stage. Will watch a day or two. Bizarrely, reckon this doesn't diminish the attractiveness of NVA as a takeover target, perhaps the opposite, easier prey when 'wounded'.....(that's the end of my glass half-full for the day)
soundbuy
08/12/2016
12:48
RBC and Canaccord are brokers to Novae RBC As a result of the change to guidance we increase our combined ratio forecast to 99.5% for 2016 from our previous 97.3% estimate. The company also commented that despite the incidence of larger risk losses and catastrophe losses increasing, the attritional loss ratio has remained steady despite pricing pressures. Although increasing bond yields are positive for insurers, with the Lloyd's insurers, the decline in the value of the bonds is recognised through earnings. As a result, the near 30% increase in 2 year government bond yields since the US election has led to a significant reduction in investment income for Novae in 2016. As a result we reduce our 2016E investment income expectation by 17.5% to £31m. Following a review of the company’s accounting policies, Novae has amended its accounting treatment for deferred acquisition costs, which is subjective in nature as it is based on a number of factors including the expected earnings pattern of insurance contracts. This has resulted in a write-down of c.£17m deferred acquisition costs (relating to a period in the region of ten years) to the 2016 opening balance sheet. For the same reason, the deferred acquisition cost charge for 2016 will increase by c. £5m (reflected within the new combined ratio guidance by c.80bps based on our estimates). Following on from the trading statement, we make a reduction to our 2016E profit before tax of 26%. In addition, we reduce our 2017-18E earnings by 4% on average reflecting higher combined ratios and lower growth than we had previously expected. As a result of the changes to our estimates, we reduce our price target to 900p from 925p. Canaccord Novae warned on Thursday morning that elevated levels of large risk and catastrophe losses flagged at Q3 had continued into Q4. It now expects a full year combined ratio in the range of 98-100%, against 96.1% at H1 and our 96.4% FY forecast. £5m of this impact is to come from an accounting reappraisal of treatment of deferred acquisition cost policy. A bigger £17m hit from this accounting will also be taken to the opening 2016 NAV, obviously impacting forecasts for closing NAV, but with no impact on cashflow or economic capital. There will also be an additional hit to profits from the sharp rise in bond yields since Trump’s election – US government yields in the three to five year range have risen c.30%. This also should not impact economic capital negatively. Confluence of large losses, higher yields and DAC hit Management said that the additional cost of large risk losses did not relate to a single new event – Hurricane Matthew is now looking at the top end of the £10-15m range given, while Novae has incurred losses from the New Zealand earthquake, and other losses have also moved against the group. The statement makes the point that the attritional loss ratio has not deteriorated, and we note also that none of the risk losses have come from new initiatives by class that have driven top-line growth. We expect peers to have had comparable experience. The same will be true of the investment income hit, albeit Novae is slightly longer duration in liabilities than its quoted peers. The DAC issue came to light as part of a regular accounting review and relates in part to some items that should not have been treated as acquisition costs (eg some professional fees and claims handling costs) and some bona fide costs that had been deferred for too long (ie into year three when policy earns in years one and two). Material cuts to 2016E EPS and tangible NAV We have made a material cut to 2016E EPS of 40%, based on a 99.5% combined ratio – c.one-third of the cut is due to lower investment income (this could still move materially by year-end). While management has said that 2016 large losses will not impact on underwriting strategy going forward, we have assumed a 0.5% higher loss ratio going forward. This impact has been partly offset by higher yields going forward, for a 3% cut to 2017E and 2018E EPS. With the dividend over 2x covered, we leave DPS forecasts unchanged. Note also the 11% cut to tangible NAV per share, of which c.4% is due to the £17m DAC writedown to book. Time will be needed to rebuild performance; downgrade to HOLD, TP to 800p We are disappointed the 9m performance has worsened in the final quarter. We believe it has been a bad, but not exceptional, year for large losses at an industry level. NVA is likely more exposed than quoted Lloyd’s peers due to its narrower scope of business. On a material cut to NAV, and modestly lowered earnings, we see limited positive catalysts until full year results at the earliest. On an unchanged target multiple of 1.45x 2016E tangible NAV per share (versus peers on 1.7-1.8x, albeit consensus NAVs do likely need to come down for higher bond yields), we lower our price target from 900p to 800p, and our recommendation to HOLD (Buy). Our new price target equates to 12x 2017E EPS from 13x versus peers trading on 12-14x, for a 4% yield, with peers yielding under 3%.
spob
08/12/2016
12:05
Canaccord (H/T FT AV) Novae warned on Thursday morning that elevated levels of large risk and catastrophe losses flagged at Q3 had continued into Q4. It now expects a full year combined ratio in the range of 98-100%, against 96.1% at H1 and our 96.4% FY forecast. £5m of this impact is to come from an accounting reappraisal of treatment of deferred acquisition cost policy. A bigger £17m hit from this accounting will also be taken to the opening 2016 NAV, obviously impacting forecasts for closing NAV, but with no impact on cashflow or economic capital. There will also be an additional hit to profits from the sharp rise in bond yields since Trump’s election – US government yields in the three to five year range have risen c.30%. This also should not impact economic capital negatively. Confluence of large losses, higher yields and DAC hit Management said that the additional cost of large risk losses did not relate to a single new event – Hurricane Matthew is now looking at the top end of the £10-15m range given, while Novae has incurred losses from the New Zealand earthquake, and other losses have also moved against the group. The statement makes the point that the attritional loss ratio has not deteriorated, and we note also that none of the risk losses have come from new initiatives by class that have driven top-line growth. We expect peers to have had comparable experience. The same will be true of the investment income hit, albeit Novae is slightly longer duration in liabilities than its quoted peers. The DAC issue came to light as part of a regular accounting review and relates in part to some items that should not have been treated as acquisition costs (eg some professional fees and claims handling costs) and some bona fide costs that had been deferred for too long (ie into year three when policy earns in years one and two). Material cuts to 2016E EPS and tangible NAV We have made a material cut to 2016E EPS of 40%, based on a 99.5% combined ratio – c.one-third of the cut is due to lower investment income (this could still move materially by year-end). While management has said that 2016 large losses will not impact on underwriting strategy going forward, we have assumed a 0.5% higher loss ratio going forward. This impact has been partly offset by higher yields going forward, for a 3% cut to 2017E and 2018E EPS. With the dividend over 2x covered, we leave DPS forecasts unchanged. Note also the 11% cut to tangible NAV per share, of which c.4% is due to the £17m DAC writedown to book. Time will be needed to rebuild performance; downgrade to HOLD, TP to 800p We are disappointed the 9m performance has worsened in the final quarter. We believe it has been a bad, but not exceptional, year for large losses at an industry level. NVA is likely more exposed than quoted Lloyd’s peers due to its narrower scope of business. On a material cut to NAV, and modestly lowered earnings, we see limited positive catalysts until full year results at the earliest. On an unchanged target multiple of 1.45x 2016E tangible NAV per share (versus peers on 1.7-1.8x, albeit consensus NAVs do likely need to come down for higher bond yields), we lower our price target from 900p to 800p, and our recommendation to HOLD (Buy). Our new price target equates to 12x 2017E EPS from 13x versus peers trading on 12-14x, for a 4% yield, with peers yielding under 3%.
soundbuy
08/12/2016
12:04
RBC.(H/T FT AV) As a result of the change to guidance we increase our combined ratio forecast to 99.5% for 2016 from our previous 97.3% estimate. The company also commented that despite the incidence of larger risk losses and catastrophe losses increasing, the attritional loss ratio has remained steady despite pricing pressures. Although increasing bond yields are positive for insurers, with the Lloyd's insurers, the decline in the value of the bonds is recognised through earnings. As a result, the near 30% increase in 2 year government bond yields since the US election has led to a significant reduction in investment income for Novae in 2016. As a result we reduce our 2016E investment income expectation by 17.5% to £31m. Following a review of the company’s accounting policies, Novae has amended its accounting treatment for deferred acquisition costs, which is subjective in nature as it is based on a number of factors including the expected earnings pattern of insurance contracts. This has resulted in a write-down of c.£17m deferred acquisition costs (relating to a period in the region of ten years) to the 2016 opening balance sheet. For the same reason, the deferred acquisition cost charge for 2016 will increase by c. £5m (reflected within the new combined ratio guidance by c.80bps based on our estimates). Following on from the trading statement, we make a reduction to our 2016E profit before tax of 26%. In addition, we reduce our 2017-18E earnings by 4% on average reflecting higher combined ratios and lower growth than we had previously expected. As a result of the changes to our estimates, we reduce our price target to 900p from 925p.
soundbuy
08/12/2016
11:42
LONDON (Alliance News) - Specialist insurer Novae Group PLC said Thursday that increased losses in the second half mean its underwriting profit is likely to be lower than previous expectations. Novae said that in the second half of 2016 it has seen a "continued prevalence of larger individual risk and catastrophe losses". The company said that while its attritional loss ratio has remained steady, the impact of larger individual risk losses "means that underwriting contribution for the year is likely to be lower than our prior expectations". Novae forecast its overall combined ratio, a key measure of profit for underwriters, to be within 98% and 100% for 2016 as a whole. The further below 100% the ratio is, the more profitable the underwriting business. The insurer noted that combined ratio includes the effects of an accounting change to its deferred acquisition costs. Novae said the change is expected to result in a write down of its deferred acquisition cost asset by approximately GBP17.0 million, and an increased in its deferred acquisition costs charge for 2016 of approximately GBP5.0 million. Novae said the change does not affect its free-cash flow. Shares in Novae were down 12% at 731.00 pence at the open on Thursday. * currently 672p down 19%
spob
08/12/2016
11:31
677p, Mcap 436m, Nos 64.4m 1 year 5Y
spob
08/12/2016
09:00
Ouch.........
soundbuy
08/12/2016
08:14
Fundamentally strong, niche market, low valuation. Buying opertunity? Will someone take this over once the dust settles?
tintin82
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older
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