National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[mj19] 14/11/2016 10:24

A statement released earlier today by HSBC about National Grid PLC (LON:NG) maintains the target price at 1,185.00GBXHSBC hold steady the target of National Grid PLC (LON:NG) at 1,185.00GBX stating a potential upside of 0.25%.On 11/11/2016, JP Morgan Cazenove released a statement for National Grid PLC (LON:NG) maintained the target price at 1,200.00GBX that suggested an upside of 0.25%.Boasting a price of 950.50GBX, National Grid PLC (LON:NG) traded -1.59% lower on the day. With the last stock price close down -9.85% from the two hundred day average, compared with the S&P 500 Index which has decreased -0.02% over the date range. National Grid PLC has recorded a 50-day average of 1,053.42GBX and a two hundred day average of 1,043.23GBX. Volume of trade was down over the average, with 922,698 shares of NG changing hands under the typical 7,311,110Performance ChartNational Grid PLC (LON:NG)With a total market value of 0 GBX, National Grid PLC has price-earnings ratio of 13.69 with a one year low of 892.92GBX and a one year high of 1,148.00GBX .A total of 16 equity analysts have released a ratings update on NG. One equity analyst rating the company a strong buy, six equity analysts rating the company a buy, six equity analysts rating the company a hold, five equity analysts rating the company a underperform, and finally zero equity analysts rating the company a sell with a one year target of 952.94GBX.Brief Synopsis About National Grid PLC (LON:NG)National Grid plc is an electricity and gas utility company focused on transmission and distribution activities in electricity and gas in both the United Kingdom and the United States. The Company's segments include UK Electricity Transmission, which is engaged in high voltage electricity transmission networks in Great Britain; UK Gas Transmission, which is the gas transmission network in Great Britain and United Kingdom liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage activities; UK Gas Distribution, which includes approximately four of the eight regional networks of Great Britain's gas distribution system, and US Regulated, which includes gas distribution networks, electricity distribution networks and high voltage electricity transmission networks in New York, and New England and electricity generation facilities in New York. Its other activities relate to non-regulated businesses and other commercial operations not included within the above segments.

[mj19] 14/11/2016 09:46

Apologies I am in it for the long term but it feels like we have no strength at present

[utyinv] 14/11/2016 09:40

mj19,

would you like to correct that? NG reached £11.40 and should have been rising.....

I believe John Pettigrew has been procrastinating with the Disn sale and doesn't appear to be giving any long term assurances as to theCompany's growth and prospects. He is playing into the hands of the Hedge Funds and whilst the likes of Credit Suisse are saying they believe Grid are worth £8.60 he and his 'Board' appear to be complacent. We are past the closing period for the Company to disclose City news, yet what did he say at the end of the City presentation last Thursday on results day? He said see you all next May (final results)???? surely he will be meeting and proudly discussing the future prospects of the Company with City analysts before then? Steve Holliday took his position seriously giving regular presentations to the City.

Let's be quite clear the value of Grid is far worse than people think. If the £ is still down 15% from pre-brexit, then a £ share now would buy you less than a £ share before brexit. So the value of the share now at £9.35 has the same international buying power equivelent of £7.90 before Brexit.

[mj19] 14/11/2016 08:59

Down again wow from £11

[scotches] 13/11/2016 20:08

I am happy enough with my NG investment and since I generally hold forever don't intend to sell but was just seeking a possible explanation as to why NG and others in the sector had fallen. eg "...under the surface of this week’s equity gains on Wall Street, investors have changed sector bets significantly as they pick winners and losers from a Trump presidency. Bond proxies, such as utilities, had led the equity market for most of the year, but were sold off as high-yielding stocks become less attractive in an environment of rising rates." FT article "Global investors eye new regime under Trump White House".

[utyinv] 12/11/2016 17:02

Scotches,

I don't usually read the Guardian but noticed this piece which I was referring to:

Donald Trump’s presidency could be a shot in the arm for National Grid, the operator of Britain’s electricity network of cables and pylons has said.

The president-elect has set out his stall for increased investment in energy infrastructure, a position that could benefit the Grid, which owns gas pipelines and electricity cables in the US.

“The position in terms of Trump is that it’s early days,” said the chief executive, John Pettigrew. “What we did see [on Thursday] from the Trump administration is positive statements on the need for investing in infrastructure. If that flows through into policy, that could be good for the energy sector.”

Pettigrew said while gas and electricity distribution were regulated at state level in the US, the Grid was likely to benefit from a “positive atmosphere” around energy infrastructure.

[utyinv] 11/11/2016 13:15

scotches,

listening to Pettigrew and news reports infrastructure also includes build in Utility infrastructure. Also Trump is promising to reduce corporation tax.

In the US, different to the UK where OFGEM set the spend and revenue National Grid can get for an eight year period (RIIO) based on RAV; in the US National Grid spend on infrastructure and maintenance then file for a rate refund (raising customer bills) for money spent on improving system infrastructure and maintaining the system. National Grid also prides itself on trying to get a premium for every GBP or Dollar spent.

This could be a nice little earner for National Grid. Also bearing in mind whether you like the guy or not, he appears to like the UK (putting the UK at the top of the list rather than the 'back of the queue') and hopefully despite his protectionist policy he might treat UK companies favorably.

Don't forget, in contrast, 6 to 7 years ago the Mass Attorney Gen McCarthy (Dem), stated that foreign companies like BP and NG should take a large hit in helping to pay off the financial crisis in the US, Irony at its best, since it was the Yanks that caused the crisis.

Only time will tell.:)

[scotches] 11/11/2016 12:29

Trump policy is to increase spending on defence, infrastructure and tax cuts. That means inflation. Bond yields climb. Bond proxies like NG fall.

[utyinv] 11/11/2016 12:05

dogdays,

the UK Gas transmission is not being sold! Its 51% of the four remaining Gas Distribution networks that NG still own.

Distribution is local network Transmission is at a higher pressure, gas that is transmitted to local areas using the transmission system.

Similar in ways to electricity (though we don't have Elect Distn in the UK but do in the US). Electricity is transmitted from Generation source (Generators, off-shore DC links etc and Interconnectors), to the bulk supply points, commonly known as the old Area Board network (DNO).

Results confirm the reason why NG want to sell a majority stake in Gas Distn. Its too cost intensive with little uplift in future profit. Look at the slides every other are made a profit (although Gas Transmission was flat) Gas Distn made a 6% loss but this is in part due to the sale process.

atlantic57,

My best guess was a Special divi of 70p in addition to 15.17p Interim Divi in January and my best guess of a final divi of 28.66p in Aug. Part of the proceeds from the Gas Distn sale will be used for share buy back to try and maintain (as much as possible) the dividends.

With Inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of next year and following the divi policy adopted by the Company of maintaining or bettering RPI; 2017 divi 43.83p (int + Final) and guessing 2018 divi 45.36p.

Who knows, as John Pettigrew mentioned, a promising statement by Trump was that he wants to increase infrastructure build which would benefit National Grid!

[atlantic57] 11/11/2016 10:24

Some have posted that a special dividend estimated at 70p in the spring
May be payable.

[brinks_matt] 11/11/2016 09:48

The market is not punishing NG. specifically. As posted above, almost like for like, the falls and rises have been almost the same sector wide on particular utilities stocks.

As far as I can see, the NG. specific results haven't impacted NG. either positively or negatively.

I'm not invested here and I don't follow NG. specific results announcements, but when are you guys expecting any special divi, if at all? Apologies if this has been announced by the company.

Thanks

[dogdays] 10/11/2016 22:37

I don't claim to be an accountant, but apart from the UK gas transmission which is being sold and the reductions on the bond market(other business)plus the debt repayment, the business looks very sound to me. If only all UK companies were the same.

[rhubarbcrumble] 10/11/2016 21:07

Can anyone explain the after hours trading?

The share price seems to have been all over the place.

[ringer12] 10/11/2016 15:56

Cheer up. At least the divi yield percentage is up!

[utyinv] 10/11/2016 14:29

brinks,

Agree, look at SSE

[ringer12] 10/11/2016 14:27

The results are not what you would call bad so heaven help us if they were Bad!

However all the utilities seem to be getting the treatment. So much for the idea that they are supposed to be a safe haven in times of high volatility!

[utyinv] 10/11/2016 14:25

tonio,

believe it or not max demand is nearly always in November.

[brinks_matt] 10/11/2016 14:21

Talk of "insight" prior to falls doesn't sit true. It is confidence in the sector at the moment. Have a look at Severn Trent. Moodies improved their rating at start of November; cut cost, refinanced cheaply, strong divi policy. Yet since start of October, they've seen a fall of ~15% to today's price, bang on the same relative value loss as NG.

Strange times.

[bigbertie] 10/11/2016 14:15

The big exceptional charge is incurred by selling Sterling bonds whose fair mkt value exceeds the carry cost. But will this be offset by a higher gain on (part) sale of the gas distribution business? And do they have to sell now, as interest rates may rise soon, which would presumably reduce the fmv of the bonds? Anyone understand all this?? Cheers BB

[tonio] 10/11/2016 14:00

Well, to my mind, the only people with 'insight' tend to be the funds guiding the Automatic Trading bots - they'll drive down the price on the slightest weakness to buy later.
If you look at NG's share price history there are several examples of both large rapid falls and rises.
All I can do, as an investor not a trader, is decide whether it's likely to be a profitable proposition over the next 5 years or so as it has been during the last six years and accumulate as and when seems appropriate.
Trump may go for more coal so that'd be good for energy supply and the US grid; in the UK clarity of thought and action in government about energy supply hasn't and doesn't seem to be present - not so good - and it was terrible to see NG calling in emergency back-up supplies, then cancelling them and it's only November.
Anyway I'm holding at the moment at a level of ~5% of investments.

[sir real] 10/11/2016 13:26

Agreed ringer. My timing is always atrocious. How nice it would be to have the 'insight' that others seem to have prior to this fall. Sticking with it for the time being as I feel this is oversold.

[ringer12] 10/11/2016 11:43

The question now is do you sell before it falls further or buy before it goes up.!

In my experience if you buy it will go down and if you sell it will go up.

[squintyflinty] 10/11/2016 11:34

This fall is overdone.This is a buying opportunity for the meduim to long term.

[gliderpilot2002] 10/11/2016 10:45

The commodity charge is small it is the loan reorganisation cost that did the real damage. It's also really annoying that the share price trend was down before the results so it seems some in the City had an inkling. I was thinking of buying these but happily did not.

[veryniceperson] 10/11/2016 09:30

Results up 1% dividend the same. I think they call it making a market to make money. Buying opportunity.