National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 17/11/2016 15:50

As we approach ex-divi date next Thurs, I believe, but hope I am wrong, this will fall through £9 barrier. At the AGM shareholders gave the Company a mandate to buy back shares. IMO it's time Andrew Bonfield acted accordingly.

[bountyhunter] 16/11/2016 17:52

Agree with you 100% re Carney - absolutely no need for a cut post referendum - many of us have suffered with savings rates being cut in half since that bit of 'wisdom' to make sure that his prophecy was self-fulfilling up to a very limited point at that time; the sooner he is replaced the better!

[utyinv] 16/11/2016 13:40

mj19,

As Prewar says, he's right, the markets see NG similar to a Bond and when the prospects of higher inflation and higher interests rates are on the horison Bonds fall and Miners and Banks rise.
However, IMO I think the likes of Credit Suisse et al who have a TP of £8.5 are partly to blame.

Carney hasn't helped too. There was no need for an interest rate cut after the referendum ( he spread doom and gloom before the vote and had to justify his stance even though it IMO wasn't needed). However, in various interviews since he has admitted that to reduce the interest rates would stimulate inflation (his true objective and nothing to do with protecting jobs) hence now forecasting inflation expected to rise to 3% next year and this strategy is making markets react, AIMO of course!

Also Trump will soon get rid of Yellen. He beieves interest rates should rise and wants to pump $Billions into infrastructure build (where hopefuly Grid will benefit but market makers haven't clocked that yet) which will cause inflation, hence bonds which pay fixed interest have plummeted in the past two weeks.

There is the prospect of an SO / TO split but that has been overdone because of the £2.5 Billion profit SO only accounts for approx £100 million of that profit and if Ofgem were to hive it off Grid there should be some compensation!

Unless of course there is also something more sinister going on behind the scene? Maybe Andrew Bonfield CFO could alieviate concerns?

[salpara111] 16/11/2016 13:12

Well, I have set a limit order for 905 so hopefully it will get filled in the next few days.

[atlantic57] 16/11/2016 11:56

i bought for the long term at 11.15.

As many have stated on here ng is seen as a proxy bond where based on Trumps utterences bond yeilds will rise which implies falls in capital values.

[mj19] 16/11/2016 11:37

Can anyone explain why it keeps dropping, what is causing this? I am not sure I understand the crazy sell off. Please explain

[utyinv] 15/11/2016 20:44

Prewar,

I agree, just wish NG isn't seen as a bond! I do understand the fundamentals ie
as interest rises, bonds fall and the likes of miners and banks rise etc etc. With the amount spent on infrastructure upgrade / new connections over the past few years I would love to see some realistic pay back. But this is down to OFGEM to give us a good RIIO-II and this requires good negotiators to put a robust case forward and to remind OFGEM, in a subtle way, that Grid is not a charity and investors require reasonable returns.

National Grid is also very different from the big six that have been criticised regarding consumer bills. Grid only accounts for about 3% of consumer bills and Ofgem and Gov should stop confusing the two seperate entities.

I too hold NG as a long term income stock and have done so since 1995.

[prewar] 15/11/2016 20:03

Uty

As others have observed the fall in share price is IMO largely down to a couple of factors:

Cycle out of utilities/safe havens into Financials and Miners to name but two sectors
Recent coverage about Energy sector ripping consumers off and the ongoing rumours regarding splitting out from NG of the SO part of the business.

Not sure Pettigrew could do much about these things.

Personally I see NG as a long term investment so probably better to judge him over 3 or 4 years rather than 3 or 4 highly volatile months (where the share price also touched nearly £11.50).

[contango1] 15/11/2016 13:26

NG is in a heavily regulated business, recognized as paying a likely(?) inflation proofed dividend. The share price reflects it's near bond status. Bonds are presently in free-fall across the world. Shares like NG have typically yielded c.6% eg SSE. NG had an unprecedented rise in July taking it to a historically low 4% yield. That exceptional rise has been steadily unwinding since, as the interest rate outlook changed. NG may well have further to go.

[utyinv] 15/11/2016 13:21

prewar, maybe so but he was Steve Holliday's right hand man for years so should know the drill.

I supported his appointment as I know the man very well and he is usually a very clever strategist.

Doesn't take away the fact that negotiations with Ofgem, DECC and Gov have not been as robust as one would expect. When you talk to those currently involved they tell that the experience and knowledge is not as it was.

Let's say I expected more from John, but he is only as good as the people that work for him. I hope things improve and the likes of Credit Suisse who have constantly talked down Grid get caught out.

[prewar] 15/11/2016 12:10

Uty change the record pal, he's been in the job five minutes.

[its the oxman] 15/11/2016 11:51

Almost yielding 5% now. Got to be a buy?

[utyinv] 15/11/2016 01:03

MJ19,

Re: How much lower?

IMO when John Pettigrew starts addressing the issue. He doesn't look as polished as Steve Holliday did when he was CEO

[garycook] 15/11/2016 00:18

Took my average price to 717.With dividends.

[mj19] 14/11/2016 21:08

How much lower

[veryniceperson] 14/11/2016 15:08

Well done Gary. I picked some SSE on Friday %5.6 that will do me. Got into NG a couple of years ago and them some more about year back. Average price £7.20 ish.

[atlantic57] 14/11/2016 15:08

This is behaving like a penny share which has gone up on speculative froth and now
Collapsed as punters take profits.

Not a Blue chip Company with a long dividend history and solid prospects.

Funny old world

[garycook] 14/11/2016 14:39

Topped up.

[speedsgh] 14/11/2016 13:26

New Edison research flash note...

Interim results: making stately progress -

[4spiel] 14/11/2016 13:09

Rising gilts !

[mj19] 14/11/2016 12:37

Nothing that bad in there

[mj19] 14/11/2016 11:16

What the hell is going on hit my stop

[mj19] 14/11/2016 11:02

National Grid suggests dual role as it battles to avoid break-upRobin Pagnamenta, Deputy Business EditorNovember 14 2016, 12:01am, The TimesThe company is considered to have a conflict of interest between its high voltage electricity arm and the distribution system that controls the flow to people's homesDAVE THOMPSON/PANational Grid is in talks about a voluntary deal aimed at staving off a forcible break-up.John Pettigrew, the chief executive, said that the company was in advanced discussions with Ofgem and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about a deal that will see formal separation of its role operating the flow of power that ensures the lights stay on from the rest of the company. National Grid owns and operates the country's high-voltage electricity network."As our role as System Operator has developed it's important we make sure the right measures are in place," Mr Pettigrew said. "We have been in discussion with Ofgem and BEIS . . . I think we may have something soon."

[gliderpilot2002] 14/11/2016 10:58

There is a Times article today on future structure of National Grid.