||ORD 11 17/43P
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Gas Water & Utilities
National Grid Share Discussion Threads
Showing 4651 to 4674 of 4675 messages
|Eh?, down 0.05%|
|share price falling in the US this evening.|
Unlikely to have SO split out per FT article from November.|
If you spend £5billion a year on assets (capex not opex )and National Grid's revenue is based on asset value there is a correlation between market cap worth and the asset value. A business wouldn't spend a penny unless the corresponding value is reflected in the company value.
In simple terms, take your house if you build an extension for £x you would target that the property would be worth £x+premium if you were to sell it. Otherwise you cannot profess to have a track record of achieving a premium on every pound spent, something that Grid always expected in its performance.
I remember 2010 well when the markets were in melt down but Grid did not lose 25% in just a few weeks as it has now. My charts show a max deviation of 17% for NG in 2010. The min was in June not May after the shares went ex-divi on 2nd June. The shares went ex-divi for a 24.84 pence final dividend to be paid in Aug.On 20th May there was a script issue to raise £3.2billion. However, after adjustments the fall as mentioned was not nearly as bad as the one being experienced now.
The last biggest drop was over 9-10th Oct 2008 with a deviation (peak to low) of 19%. This was in the aftermath of the Lehman Bros crash and the birth of the financial crash.
Anyway, its obvious I expect a better performance from NG than some.
Let's hope for some good news soon and as I said earlier, whether you like or dislike Trump, hopefully if Trump's policy of infrastructure build takes off then NG should be a beneficiary :)|
"Unlike other Companies NG has spent £5billion per year on Capex asset reinforcement / new connections.
National Grid have a PEx benchmark of making a premium return on every GBP or Dollar spent (a philosophy we always adopted). So based on the fact that each year the asset value should increase the value of the Company by £5 billion + / year (even taking account of asset depreciation) £14/£15 is a reasonable expection."
How can spending £5bn p.a turn into an extra £5bn valuation? The premium they look to achieve isn't 100%!
By unprecedented I think you'll find a few sharp drops within your 35 yr investment career, look at May 2010 for a start.|
In answer to your question (post 4250), no they don't. Also, NG 'Board' share options are based on share performance.|
|others see time to buy..
I agree the price will be more than £10 in a year's time. I have been investing for over 35 years and with NG since floatation in late 1995, so I am well aware of how the game plays. But the recent fall in NG share price is unprecendented and during any volatile time a Utility guaranteed to increase a divi yield by RPI+ each year is very valuable.
Three years ago a number of Analysts were saying that NG based on fundamentals were worth £11-£12/ share. Unlike other Companies NG has spent £5billion per year on Capex asset reinforcement / new connections. All of which can be recouped from customers through customer bills '(though NG element of bill is only 3%). Shares in circ have remained approx constant 3.7 billion. National Grid have a PEx benchmark of making a premium return on every GBP or Dollar spent (a philosophy we always adopted). So based on the fact that each year the asset value should increase the value of the Company by £5 billion + / year (even taking account of asset depreciation) £14/£15 is a reasonable expection.
I appreciate that NG is seen as a bond but many bonds pay a fixed income over a period of time. NG however, pay an increased dividend payment based on RPI+ (not CPI). NG's income is also based on that criteria. Where would you expect to find a 4.8% dividend with an increasing dividend yield of RPI+?.
I have worked with JP and know most of the Board well (excluding some recent additions)! Hence my statement that 'operationally' I regard him as brilliant, as CEO material...Jury still out. I knew Steve Holliday well too and he was comfortable giving City presentations to quash negative comments by parasite Hedge Funds. IMO I wish JP would adopt some of the practices of his predecessor. :)|
|Well the share price is falling and nothing suggests it doesn't have further to go!|
|Uty please post detailed workings for £15 share price....
I think you'll find dollar earnings offset by dollar debt and equity and hedging.
Share price has dropped as a result of NG being comparable to bonds, which have reduced in price post Trump election.
If you can't handle a bit of volatility sell up and stick your money in the bank, alternatively look at the price now as an opportunity, be surprised if these are less than £10 this time next year. DYOR|
|These share buybacks are doing wonders for the SP!
Question. Does NG and other utilities lend their shares for shorting?|
|Based on asset cap spend and 35% of revenue comes from the US in dollars, NG share price should be pushing £15 / share.
It was said that the special divi of 70p from the gas Distn sale was priced into the share price when it was £11.46p / share.
JP and the 'Board' are not performing. Will they take a 25% pay cut I wonder? After all, the key PEx benchmark indicator is to constantly grow the company's equity through building lucrative assets and charging the customers accordingly.
Mike Westcott as HR Director must have known there were potential problems with the gas Distn sale (unions etc) or that the SO/TO split was creating issues. For him to sell a large holding at £11.20 and a few weeks later the share price crashes to this level, a safe and (supposedly) Growing Company with revenues from the US. Sorry, for me too much of a coincidence.|
|Well I never thought I'd have the chance to add at sub £9, so manipulation has opened up an opportunity , IMHO.|
|still no news on SO/TO split or not, no news on RIIO II both due out at end of Nov.
All the uncertainty is allowing Hedge Funds to manipulate the share price. What is Pettigrew and his 'Board' doing........?
It has also been said that JP has also ignored calls from Analysts requesting info on how things are progressing, which with the constant delay experienced I am inclined to believe. This is in direct contrast to how Steve Holliday operated in ensuring the Markets were kept upto date with info, informing them of the cause of any delay and to quash any negative news propagated by Hedge Funds that they put out to manipulate the share price.
In recent years, under Steve Holliday, there have been numerous 'City Briefings' after results to keep things focused as Markets do not like uncertainty. The main priority for a CEO is to keep investors happy and increase shareholder value. A CEO has a fully equiped team to carry out the operational quirks based on his directive. So I am starting to question whether JP is the right man for CEO material, operationally he is brilliant but the Jury is out on how he is performing his current role.|
|The 10 year statements are updated every year. The new ones have just been published. Nothing more than a case of NG continuing to inform external parties.|
I read the 10 year statements in January of this year, was there something you wanted to highlight and draw our attention to or are you posting the links for general info only?|
|Electricity Ten Year Statement
Gas Ten Year Statement
|As long as it closes on or above the support level despite intraday movements - then support remains intact.|
|Just breached the £8.95 support!|
|Well, my 902 order was just filled so I guess we will see if this level holds.|
|Unfortunately this sharpish drop has had the effect of just sliding the share price back below and technically into oversold territory. Good news is support is at 895p today. So support is holding so far.|
|Should of had a decision on the SO/TO split or not. Should of had a decision on RIIO II which will guarantee what we can spend /earn over the second part of the RIIO period (to 2021). The gas Distn part sale was always due to be completed by end of year, with proceeds of deal distributed to shareholders in first quarter of next year.
Have we had regular updates on how things are progressing? Ans No!
At the interim results 10 Nov Pettigrew stated to analysts commenting about all three aspects "expect to hear something very very soon", giving the impression to Analysts that it was a couple of days. Three weeks later no news, no update! No wonder Hedge Funds are having a field day. They (hedge funds) can put out any negative comment / news to drag the price down because there is nothing coming out from John Pettigrews 'Board' to contradict the negative views. Holliday would have probably of had three City presentations by now trying to arrest the crazy drop in our share price.
Jury still out on how JP (as he is known in the Company) is fairing, but so far the evidence of performance is quite damning. Don't forget the final results in May of this year and share price during June, July and Aug is based on Holliday's legacy. The first results purely down to JP was the Interims where since then (or abouts), £9 billion has been wiped off our value when it should have been going the other way especially when you realise that for the past four years we have been increasing our asset value by cap ex spend by £5billion / year. Very, very dissapointing performance, so far. May take years if at all, to get where it should be pushing £13-£15 / share.|
|Goldman Sachs recent 854 PT has not helped the SP,but if it reaches 870,then I am buying more for sure at a 5% yield.With a possible 26% upside in growth to around £11.Now that would be nice,and it should recover to those previous levels.|
|Yes ditto that. SSE & NG. Have both of them too :) I'm putting this slip back to 913p down to the fickle bearishness that traditionally inhabits shares during their ex-Divi duration - and not fundamentals - Well, for the moment at least :)|