National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 21/11/2023 16:11:32

1034! We should stay above £10 XD at this rate.
Buyers jumping onboard for the divi?

[utyinv] 20/11/2023 11:20:14

Will fall at 14:30 hrs Weds 22nd

Though the shares go ex-divi on Thurs 23rd the US ADRs go ex divi on Weds. Thursday the US markets are closed for Thanksgiving and expect volatility beforehand.

[tuftymatt] 20/11/2023 10:16:31

😂👍🏻

[bountyhunter] 20/11/2023 10:14:42

We should be working for Deutsche Bank tufty as we predicted that their 1 yr target price would be hit within days! So much for their analysts but maybe they have been topping up!!

[skinny] 20/11/2023 09:55:30

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[tuftymatt] 20/11/2023 09:07:45

Roughly there now BH 😀

Good luck all 👍🏻

[bountyhunter] 16/11/2023 14:32:11

Back up to 1005 with a week still to go until XD. There's still plenty of time to hit that 1020 target before 19.4p XD :)

[bountyhunter] 15/11/2023 11:51:06

Yes the announcement of the SSE divi cut and share price reaction were quite some time ago now, factored in long before today's results.

[anhar] 15/11/2023 11:28:57

A strong set of results for SSE this morning. 1020 here ahead of the 19.4p XD next week is looking more and more likely :)

I've held NG. and SSE for many years in my income port. Although generallly the SSE figures today weren't bad, the large 38% divi cut for 2024 matters to me as purely an income investor. It was flagged well in advance so no surprise about this today but it still stings. Incidentally it makes SSE a much lower yielder than NG..

However I continue to hold both as part of the clutch of utis in my port.

[tuftymatt] 15/11/2023 08:41:18

I agree bh 😀

Good luck all 👍🏻

[utyinv] 15/11/2023 08:34:37

CPIH for Oct is 4.7% down from 6.3% last month.

So this financial year, so far: CPIH April 7.8%, May 7.9%, June 7.3%, July 6.4%, Aug 6.3%, Sept 6.3%, Oct 4.7%.

[bountyhunter] 15/11/2023 08:22:35

A strong set of results for SSE this morning. 1020 here ahead of the 19.4p XD next week is looking more and more likely :)

[bountyhunter] 13/11/2023 13:17:17

Certainly imho 1020 is possible by the XD date. These analyst targets seem like pure guesswork to me, 1020p in a year's time?! What a nonsense of a target that is.

[tuftymatt] 13/11/2023 12:17:42

Yes my mistake bh as from memory I had it as this week 👍🏻

[bountyhunter] 13/11/2023 12:12:49

There's time yet with 10 days to go.

[tuftymatt] 13/11/2023 11:23:41

With ex divi coming I thought that number was possible this week.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[skinny] 13/11/2023 11:00:00

FWIW :- Deutsche Bank raises National Grid price target to 1,020 (970) pence - 'hold'

[utyinv] 11/11/2023 00:51:48

anhar:

Re: post 8653 - Forward yield should be a little higher as the 23/24 final will likely be ahead of last year's.

I don’t think the increase will be as high ( percentage terms ) as last year because the Final will be based on the average CPIH for each month April ‘23 to March ‘24 less the interim paid in Jan.

I have posted each month through to Sept ( Sept data published in Oct) and to date we have:-
CPIH April 7.8%, May 7.9%, June 7.3%, July 6.4%, Aug 6.3%, Sept 6.3%

So let’s play guess work with CPIH for Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan Feb and Mar.

Hypothetically, if Oct data is 6%, Nov is 5.5%, Dec 5%, Jan 5%, Feb 4.6% and Mar 4.5% then the average CPIH will be 6.05%

If that is the figure ( which we will use determining our Final) then :

Last year Divi 55.44p x 1.0605 = 58.79p less 19.4p ( interim) = 39.39p so if the next six months of CPIH comes out as our exercise above, the final will be 39.39p. If CPIH falls faster we would get less and more if inflation persists.

With NG using this formulae to determine dividends then NG is one of the few Companies where investors can predict the dividend.

You also mentioned debt and dividend cover. This is normal for utilities like NG where income is almost certain. OFGEM have encouraged NG to capitalise future projects using debt rather than hiking customer bills higher. They (OFGEM) argue that NG can borrow cheaper than a risky Company and the business is secure. They then ask Grid to recoup project costs from customers over a 40 year period.

The only income Ofgem have no control over is income from the US ( which is regulated from within the US but usually the US is more business friendly / realistic) and of course unregulated businesses, ie ventures etc.

So unless NG change their divi policy or something seriously interferes with Company Strategy (politics), then NG is quite predictable.

Hope the above helps

[bountyhunter] 10/11/2023 09:04:33

anhar, I was simply agreeing with you re the value of the dividend and adding to what you said.

[skinny] 09/11/2023 10:50:45

Like a few on here, I've held since privatisation.

An interesting graphic from the website .