Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 02/4/2015 08:58

Apad

Thanks, 80% vs 60% is significant.

red

[apad] 02/4/2015 08:53

The GNK rights was in 2009, specifically to buy assets from indebted rivals, red.
GNK up about 80% and MARS 60% since then, but they were similar during the year-long GNK decline that finished end of Dec 2014.
apad

[apad] 02/4/2015 08:39

Very good j, bit like my watchlist outperforming my portfolio:-)
Your solution, although emminently logical, wont work for me - no rear view mirror.
apad

[redartbmud] 01/4/2015 20:08

APAD

I like the cut of your jib
I also often retain shares in companies where I have disposed of most of my holding. Unfortunately these days you do not get the printed information because the holding is in nominees. that doesn't help when trying to follow the story.
Had it not been for a long family association with Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, I might have sold and bought GNK years ago. For a long time I have thought them a more attractive bet. I did not want to incerease my holding in the sector at a time when the government was putting the industry under fiscal pressure and asset values were under stress.
it would be interesting to compare relative performance since the rights issue.

red

[redartbmud] 01/4/2015 18:17

APAD

Re; Humble - Sorry, not thinking.
Yes, case to bail out, but sticking doggedly in. I will not be defeated. Their biggest mistake was letting GNK get in first with the rights issue. They ended up discounting more and raising less. They have never got over it or caught up. Best exec bailed to M&B.

Fevr - I misjudged that one badly.

red

[apad] 01/4/2015 16:57

I thought the 'H' in IMHO stood for 'Humble', Red :-)

Sounds like you have a case for bailing out. Before you do that: what is the positive argument?

Numis reiterates Buy at 180 - perhaps that is a negative, though.

34% profit on FEVR so far - brands not buildings?

apad

[redartbmud] 01/4/2015 16:30

APAD

Not at all humble. Whilst I hold Mars I am not enamoured with management.
No words can describe my utter contempt for the chair. that is only the start.
The business model is constrained by the securitised debt of c £1.4bn last time I looked. The FFFFFFF plan is a one trick pony, totally reliant on consumer tastes not changing.
Build a new pub for c £2m then revalue it by 25% or so when it opens. Where is the money for refurbs, because they take a hell of a beating from kids running wild? Minimal attention to existing estate. Friends comment to me about shabby pubs.
Dividend cover now below the long term target of 2x.

I'm depressed now.

red

[apad] 01/4/2015 15:16

If I remember this debt has a large short term element cf GNK which is long term buildings backed debt.
Also it's turnover that is not in the London hotspot.
Mum's not sure about this at all and thinks she might take profits.
apad

[redartbmud] 01/4/2015 14:35

Space

They are in denial about the debt.

red

[skinny] 01/4/2015 13:32

Yes, I'm pleasantly surprised - 159.30 @17 month high.

[lord gnome] 01/4/2015 13:23

The market likes the deal - clearly. We have a major breakout from the trading range of the last eighteen months.

[spacecake] 01/4/2015 12:31

IMV the money would have been better spent paying down the debt mountain which would also be earnings enhancing.

[redartbmud] 31/3/2015 17:28

At least it creates more production volume within the business itself, although the output will be going to a competitor within the industry.

Knowing the company, I am not convinced that they have run out of disposals. There are still underperforming pubs in the estate that could be released, at the right price, to free up much needed capital for reinvestment in more profitable areas. It would also underpin the asset prices held in the balance sheet.

[apad] 31/3/2015 17:03

Thanks jeff, missed that one.
I guess they have been working together so long that it should be mutually beneficial.
More debt though.
apad

[jeffian] 31/3/2015 16:26

Acquisition of the Thwaites brewing business with an exclusive deal to supply the Thwaites estate looks a useful deal. Immediately earnings-enhancing. MARS is never going to set the world alight but as long as it toddles along growing steadily and paying a div, I'm quite happy.

[philanderer] 23/2/2015 20:30

Telegraph:

"Pub group Marston’s was lifted 4.1p to 153.4p after Panmure Gordon turned positive and upgraded the shares to “buy”.

“After five years of earnings-dilutive disposals, we believe Marston’s is finally reaching an earnings inflection point,” analysts at the broker said. “Beyond 2015, disposals will slow materially and we forecast accelerating earnings growth.”

[redartbmud] 23/2/2015 14:25

Good to know that the CEO job at Mars isn't taking up too much of his time then.

[skinny] 23/2/2015 14:22

Marston's PLC (the "Company") today announces that Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, will be appointed a Non-executive Director of Bovis Homes Group PLC with effect from 7 April 2015. Ralph will also be a member of the Nomination Committee, Remuneration Committee and Audit Committee and will chair the Audit Committee from the conclusion of the 2015 AGM.

[lord gnome] 23/2/2015 12:41

It might just last this time around. The recent move higher has been a lot steadier and has all the hallmarks of a sustained uptrend rather than top-of-range trading. I live in hope.

[redartbmud] 23/2/2015 10:41

jeff

Don't panic, it won't last.

red