Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[gbb483] 25/7/2013 08:06

That graph implies someone with a lot of funds knew yesterday what was in today's report.

[hyden] 25/7/2013 07:11

Looks like they're outperforming MAB. :-)

[gswredland] 25/7/2013 07:09

Very nice statement! Could be some broker upgrades?

[skinny] 25/7/2013 07:05

Trading
As expected, our trading performance since the announcement of our interim results has been strong.

In Destination and Premium pubs, like-for-like sales for the 42 week period were 2.1% ahead of last year, including like-for-like food sales growth of 3.7% and like-for-like wet sales up 0.5% on last year. Like-for-like sales over the 10 weeks to 20 July were 6.0% ahead of last year. We have opened 16 new pub-restaurants in the year to date.

In our Taverns community pubs, performance in the second-half year to date is in line with last year with growth in our franchise pubs against strong comparatives that included the positive impact of the Euro 2012 football tournament as well as disposals, which are ahead of schedule.

In our Leased pubs, performance for the second half year to date is in line with last year.

In brewing, we have made excellent progress against a declining market, with year to date own-brewed beer volumes up around 6%.

We are ahead of target in disposing of our non-core pubs, with proceeds to date of £35 million and a revised forecast of around £50 million by the year-end.

[gswredland] 25/7/2013 06:54

Hi Dean are you sure it is today? No record of this on iii,but they may have missed them out!

[deanforester] 24/7/2013 17:20

Trading statement tomorrow, and I am about 1.5% off my trimming point. Will the rise continue?

[skinny] 24/7/2013 08:37

HSBC Neutral 160.00 159.00 140.00 160.00 Reiterates

[mozart999uk] 24/7/2013 08:19

Thanks Skinny :-)

[mechanical trader] 23/7/2013 11:22

23 Jul 2013 Marston's PLC MARS Shore Capital Buy 158.45 158.30 - - Reiterates

[skinny] 23/7/2013 08:45

25th!

MAB also on the 25th.

[mozart999uk] 23/7/2013 08:43

is there an interim soon?

[redartbmud] 22/7/2013 08:55

I'll drink to that.

[leeson31] 22/7/2013 08:50

roll on 175p :-)

[skinny] 22/7/2013 08:39

4 year high @157.90p

[redartbmud] 21/7/2013 22:59

I like the sound of barn storming.

[jeff h] 21/7/2013 21:57

IMS this Thursday. A piece from todays ST:-

In recent years Ralph Findlay, the chief executive, has ploughed millions into gardens. Or rather, pubs with gardens.

On an island that is so often buffeted by foul weather, this is not a guaranteed crowd-puller. The wet summer last year dented trading at the brewer of Pedigree and Hobgoblin beers.

Now that the sun has come out, however, City scribblers are predicting a barn-storming performance. Panmure Gordon, the broker, expects it to reveal a 7% jump in like-for-like sales over the past two-and-half months.

The £875million company trades at a slight discount - 9.1 times future earnings compared with the average ratio of 10.1 times.

So if you are going to bet on a pub operator, it seems a good option.

[redartbmud] 19/7/2013 20:12

rm

Hi,

The prospect of a possible rights issue leaves me cold.
The last one wasn't handled particularly well. They were slow off the blocks, followed Greene King, and didn't get best value as a result.
Should they need to tap the market again, it would mean that either the whole market is completely out of sorts or that the business isn't doing very well.
Let us be positive and hope that they get it right on the trading front and generate some real cash. I would be a lot happier if they could pay down some of the debt out of trading income. Unfortunately it is a big mountain to climb.

red

[rmillaree] 19/7/2013 16:29

Hello redartmud

I would love to put your mind at ease and says the risks of Mars having a future rights issue are so low as to be negligible - but its not the case. Due to the large wad of debt that risk is always present and one only has to look back a few years to see that the profits evaporated for a while. The one good thing is that the more profits rise above a minimum required level - the more safety margin they have above that minimum required level. Forecasts for 2013 are £94 mill pre-tax and £100 mill for 2014 - as compared to 88 mill for 2012 and 80 mill for 2011.
They always have the options to stop new builds or lower divi too - but they would need to see the next trainwreck coming (hopefully there isnt one !!)
even if debt isn't coming down NTAV should be increasing whilst profits are well above the divi level so an increase in NTAV also adds some extra protection if needs be.

[leeson31] 19/7/2013 09:00

protectionism :-)

[thamestrader] 18/7/2013 21:14

Brakspear's (not owned by Marstons at the time), used to keep their Rredundant pubs intact for sale (many were listed), but always filled the cellars with cement so they couldn't be used as pubs - VANDALISM!

[redartbmud] 18/7/2013 21:04

rm

Hi

I agree that 1 busy pub worth more that 2 half full. Finding good managers/tennants seems to be a problem for all pubcos.

On the topic of the 5 year review I assume that they take a sample then extrapolate the data, otherwise it would be cost prohibitive. I just hope that the sample is correct.

I have tried hard to analyse the accounts year on year, but they seem to change the goal posts so you are always comparing apples and pears. Perhaps they don't want to give too much data to the competition?
The new contracts are innovative and give many more options to succeed.

My continual fear is the fact that the borrowings don't seem come down and the profitability doesn't give much leeway. A small downtick on margins could cause a big wave.

I hear what you say on planning, but this is England after all, and we don't go in for change.

Dean
I do wonder why they don't demolish redundant buildings. They deteriorate quickly and are a mecca for vandals. Perhaps the travellers would get onto waste land and cause mayhem?

red

[deanforester] 18/7/2013 17:08

Demolish a closed pub, and then it becomes a brownfield site for housing. The site value will be enhanced.

[redartbmud] 18/7/2013 08:10

rm

You seem like a knowledeable chap.
Can you explain where the pubs that are closing every week fit into the valuation matrix? As they are decomissioned, they must lose value, by definition. I see a lot of derelict, former Marstons pubs, as I travel around it's core hinterland. It would appear, therefore, that they are still on the books - and incurring ongoing costs.
Furtheremore, the company has a considerable number of outlets that are securitised against over £1 billions of debt.
The new pubs coming on stream are being revalued at a considerable premium to build cost, enhancing the balance sheet.
I just struggle to rationalise the ups and downs in my mind.

red