Kromek Share Discussion Threads

[mikeroot5] 07/12/2016 09:37

Value beginning to register here - very positive write up here.

Some good contracts coming in - future looks bright!

[haroldthegreat] 07/12/2016 09:00

Has anyone got an idea of the sale price of each D3S unit ?

[quepassa] 07/12/2016 08:59

Caveat.

Sterling has strengthened a lot recently .

From 1.20 to 1.27 currently.

That will likely impact H2/Full year figures whereas H1 reflected post-Brexit sterling weakness and the plunge to 1.20.

They had a significant £700k of Exchange gains in six months to Oct and today's RNS says the following:

"The gain noted in the table above is the position at the half year. This net gain could largely unwind in the second half, and thus for the full year, should the value of the US dollar remain strong against the pound."




Whilst I respect Equity Development, in my view the 45p share valuation is very optimistic in my opinion.


In tracking Kromek closely since flotation, in my opinion there has been very limited reliable forward visibility ever. Kromek's past track record of delivering surprises to the DOWNSIDE cannot be ignored.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[aishah] 07/12/2016 08:38

Eqyuity Development:

Exponential growth now in sight
Published: Dec 07 2016
Kromek is pioneering digital colour imaging for x- and gamma rays, using cadmium zinc telluride crystals. Key markets include medical imaging, nuclear detection and security screening.
The potential for further major contracts remains promising. They would take time to flow through to the P&L, yet even so the immediate signs are promising. At the interims this morning LFL sales impressively climbed 19% to £3.8m, reflecting triple digit gains in Asia (eg medical products including BMD) and the UK, allied to a solid performance again from the US.
Better still, Kromek is on track to achieve our FY17 sales target of £8.9m supported by in excess of “85% visibility” (RNS), and higher H2 gross margins (ie Est 58% vs 53% in H1) as the business scales. H1’17 adjusted EBITDA of -£636k was in line with our expectations, or -£1,836k if one backs out a £1.2m forex benefit from the balance sheet translation of $ denominated assets and working capital (re £ weakness).
Despite absorbing £1.7m of capitalised R&D, H1 cash-burn was a modest £1.55m (vs -£3.9m H1’16 and -£2.6m H2’16), thanks to positive working capital and the receipt of £0.9m in R&D tax credits. Net funds closed October at a £2.3m, which should be sufficient until the group becomes self-funding in FY19, assuming things go to plan.
Kromek has already landed prestigious BMD and SPECT agreements with several blue-chip OEMs, which together are forecast to more than double revenues from circa £2.7m in FY17 to £6.5m next year. However, to us the biggest near-term opportunity relates to the further roll-out of its portable D3S ‘dirty bomb’ detectors, 10,000 such devices having already been shipped to the US Dept of Defense (DoD).
Looking ahead, visibility is building too for FY18 where we estimate there is now >50% cover of our £12.5m sales estimate - in turn driving adjusted EBITDA into the black at £0.3m. We make no change to our FY17 projections or 45p/share DCF valuation.

[brummy_git] 07/12/2016 08:28

New research out this morning from Equity development

hxxps://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/edreader/?d=%3D%3DANzIjM

[aishah] 07/12/2016 07:25

Strong Interims. 85% revenue visibility, R&D programmes moving to commercialisation phase. Worth adding. Imo. Dyor

[quepassa] 07/12/2016 07:14

Pretty lousy results again in my view against increasing sales.

ANOTHER LOSS of £1.8million for the half-year.

Doesn't bode well for full year results in my opinion.


No mention of the performance/non-performance/status of the $159million contract in the 4/4/14 RNS.


More suggestions of jam tomorrow but the actual arrival date of that oft-mentioned jam seems to be very uncertain in my view.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[hannahh] 06/12/2016 14:42

If you would like to hear management present the interim results for Kromek we will be hosting a webinar on Thursday 8th December at 11.45am. Arnab Basu, Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Bulmer, Chief Financial Officer, will give a presentation lasting approximately 30 mins and there will then be an opportunity for Q&A.

To join please register at: hxxps://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4991647929164060674

If you would like to submit any questions for management ahead of the meeting please send them to [e-mail]

Kind regards,
The Equity Development Team

[techno20] 20/11/2016 21:04

Positive comment from GCI....

Kromek (AIM: KMK) has been a disappointing investment since listing in 2013. It has interesting technology used in sectors where there are good growth opportunities but so far the company hasn’t delivered the sort of revenues originally targeted. However recent contract wins hold out the prospect of improved visibility. The hope is to reach break even at the ebitda level in the next financial year to April 2018.



Kromek was founded on technology spun out from Durham University which uses high-performance sensor materials (mainly cadmium zinc telluride) to detect radiation in the medical, nuclear and security markets. Volumes have taken longer to build than hoped, which is not an unusual experience for small companies dealing with government and large corporate buyers.



This year has brought positive news on contracts. In particular, deals with US agencies responsible for homeland security could prove crucial in producing a vital ramp-up in sales. The first 10,000 units for the early detection of radiological ‘dirty bombs’ have been delivered. After this initial deployment and testing in Washington there’s the prospect of the product being rolled out into other cities, each of which would need in the region of 5-10,000 detectors.



A range of other deals were recently announced which should also underpin short term activity, including work for customers in medical and airport security. CEO Arnab Basu believes he has over 80 per cent of this year’s forecast £8.8 million of sales in the bag, which is a stronger position than in previous years. Breaking even at the ebitda level will still require a 40 per cent jump in sales for the 2018 year to £12.5 million. The current £40 million market cap still looks to be a bit ahead of the game, but Kromek is worth keeping an eye on given the potential for those US defence contracts to scale up.

[aishah] 18/11/2016 14:08

Interim result announcement on 7th December. Should get good progress report imo.

[quepassa] 07/11/2016 11:59

Ok. Fair enough.

How much have they received so far please?

And when will the rest of this mega $159million contract announced by RNS on 4/4/14 start paying out please?

Thanks.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[culford] 07/11/2016 11:27

QP,
As I understand it they have received revenue on this contract but at a slower rate than originally planned. The business is building up and I'm sure we will hear more on this in due course.
India is new to me but very interesting as would be a huge new market for their technology.
Also, the headlines are frequently on ISIS and dirty/nuclear bombs at present, must help their DS3 business prospects.

[quepassa] 07/11/2016 11:09

Yes but Kromek has a real track record of not delivering on forecasts in my opinion.

I personally find it hard to have confidence in what they say.

Anyone heard anything about the infamous $159million contract as detailed in the Company's 4/4/14 RNS?


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[daz] 07/11/2016 10:55

Great find Techno! The 15m imaging and diagnostic centre would appear to be where KMK's hopes lie. From reading the text, it seems to be going ahead, so I think the chances are good, though of course KMK's contribution will only be a small part of the 15m

[daz] 02/11/2016 17:55

The announcement today further underpins the revenue forecast for this financial year. Any more contract announcements in the next few months and I think we will be seeing upgrades and the share price should follow.

[cheshire man] 02/11/2016 12:20

I've had a few of these tucked away for a while,good news this morning so will hang onto them for some time as the potential here seems very good IMO DYOR

[techno20] 02/11/2016 11:48

Feels like momentum building. For anyone interested latest edition of Techinvest is on their website. Positive mention of potential for KMK.

Techno

[aishah] 02/11/2016 11:19

News flow good recently. Techinvest have also picked up on this and have included a snippet on KMK in latest issue.

[philjeans] 02/11/2016 08:45

Yes - gaining traction steadily.

Huge potential.

[rochdale] 02/11/2016 07:11

another order in today $1.15M over 24 months.

[aishah] 20/10/2016 09:18

Kromek celebrating milestone week
16:36 19 Oct 2016

Radiation technology company Kromek Group PLC (LON:KMK) has completed the delivery of an initial 10,000 personal D3S radiation detectors to a US Department of Defense agency. Also, on Monday they announced six new contracts wins worth, in aggregate, around US$3.1mln.

Chief executive Dr Arnab Basu tells Proactive: ''We've worked with the US department of Defense for the last seven years and we feel very proud we've been able to make a material contribution to their mission goals.''

''There'll be a deployment in Washington DC later on this year and further deployments are planned in 2017/2018 - with 2018 being the expected wider rollout within the federal states in the US.'' Dr Basu added.

With regard to the contract wins, he said fundamentally some of them are very important for us because it demonstrates the real progress in all the sectors we operate in - medical, security and nuclear.

This week Kromek also won an award for business innovation. It was handed out on Tuesday night at the Palace of Westminster – commonly known as the Houses of Parliament – where the company demonstrated the detectors to members of parliament, peers of the realm, policy-makers, business leaders and acclaimed physicians.

r o a c t i v e i n v e s t o r s.co.uk/companies/stocktube/6217/kromek-celebrating-milestone-week-6217.html

[aishah] 19/10/2016 14:02

I have added today. Will try and accumulate while the seller persists.

[culford] 19/10/2016 11:41

ED have come up with a price target of 45p - compared to current price of 24p/market cap £37m - i.e. a market cap target of 45/24x37m=£69m.

My view would be that this company will have revenues of c$100m in 3 years (the combined civil and military US nuclear programmes have a combined value in excess of $1bn). This would mean GP of c$50m at 50% margin or £40m - equivalent to net profits of c£30m after admin costs of £10m. Putting that on a conservative 10x gives a market cap of £300m. Discount that back now by 3 years or 50% and you get £150m or 4x the current value. My target price would thus be 100p.