Kaz Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 11/1/2017 14:22

In 2010 ftse100 was 5500 Kaz was £16 doesn't mean anything. It's all about inflation

[james190] 11/1/2017 14:18

ftse well over done kaz will pull back when ftse comes down

[linton5] 11/1/2017 14:09

bamboo give us a trendline please need to blitz this 430 wall.im in a cave in FIFE

[linton5] 11/1/2017 14:04

I've been in from 116 to 180 then 290to 366 now 421 to? Ved was average 340ish to 650 but can't make myself go back at 950

[b2l] 11/1/2017 13:54

my too @Losses
fully loaded and feeling positiv about KAZ

[losses] 11/1/2017 13:43

I'm fully loaded now... hoping not to see less than 400 for the foreseeable future lol

[linton5] 11/1/2017 13:40

Okay dokey will pile in at 380

[losses] 11/1/2017 13:09

Can expect a pull back to early 400s but I wouldn't hold my breath though...A bit of consolidation around this level and if copper holds next move towards 600 will begin

[james190] 11/1/2017 12:53

well its gone up quite abit in the last 2 days i will buy the £4 area

[volsung] 11/1/2017 12:31

I love a good pullback

[hyden] 11/1/2017 12:14

Haven't we just had a pullback?

[james190] 11/1/2017 11:45

am gonna wait for a pull back then jump in long

[james190] 11/1/2017 11:44

nice 1 Linton5

[linton5] 11/1/2017 11:16

I'm back in and definitely not selling this time until at least £10 plus next year

[bigbigdave] 11/1/2017 09:56

There is a gap up to £8 but not sure it will go there in a straight line.

[mr.oz] 11/1/2017 09:55

someuwin10 Jan '17 - 10:31 - 11883 of 11898

Gap up to £8 ?

:-)

[penrith] 11/1/2017 09:42

Canacccord Genuity raise Kaz to a buy and move their old target price from 155p to 475p. 'Sorry we thought it was a clapped out Fiesta but we now see it's Bentley'. Complete idiots.

[penrith] 11/1/2017 09:30

If we get good 4th Qtr production results at end of Jan then £5 should be achievable. Good final year at the end of February could see £6 and refinancing deal in April should see £6.50.Easy Peary.We need copper to stay above 2.6. If that slips then .........

[racg] 11/1/2017 08:15

£5 target not looking so ridiculously delusional anymore.

[losses] 11/1/2017 07:55

Racg, you will be happier if you hold on lol

[someuwin] 11/1/2017 07:11

Kaz Minerals PLC KAZ
Peel Hunt
Add
Old Target 395.00
New Target 450.00
Upgrades

[racg] 11/1/2017 00:57

Am I happy or what.

[smurfy2001] 10/1/2017 17:20

Production increases to continue from late 2016 to 2018

In KAZ's 3Q16 production results, the company delivered substantially increased production levels as the Bozshakol mine continued its commissioning. Commercial production was declared from late October and we expect Bozshakol to be running near production capacity in the coming quarters. In December, KAZ also announced the commissioning of Aktogay some 3-6 months ahead of our forecasts. We forecast continued production growth at KAZ through 2018.
Profit to significantly pick up from 2017

Despite our forecast for a strong yoy EBITDA recovery in 2016, we are forecasting continued strength in 2017, when we forecast EBITDA to double YoY. With our stronger copper price forecasts and also our continued production growth, we see 2017 as the second year where KAZ leads in EBITDA growth of all the copper companies we cover from London, but unlike 2016 we believe 2017 should include lower balance sheet risk.
Net debt to decrease from 2018

Beyond completion of the Bozshakol and Aktogay projects in 2017, we see 2018 as the first year of positive free cash flow for KAZ and also the first year of net debt reduction post project completion. While we do anticipate a modest decrease in gearing by year end 2017, CG forecasts 2018 as the first full year of net debt reduction.
Capex falls off from 2019, with a step up in free cash

The free cash story should further improve from 2019 as project capex (including deferred capex) starts to fall away after 2018. From 2019 we see a substantial increase in free cash generation and decreases in both net debt and gearing. We forecast 2019 as the first year where KAZ capex/OCF comes in below 50%.
11:38 am
BE
Most of our debt concerns addressed in late 2016

Over 2016 we highlighted the attractive growth profile of KAZ but the high risk balance sheet and debt maturity profile. In mid December, KAZ announced an additional debt facility of US$300mn with more flexible convenants and an extended maturity. At the same time, KAZ announced covenant waivers for the PXF and CAT facilities, with further negotiations to take place on maturities beyond year end 2016 reporting. These announcements address the vast majority of our debt profile issues, and re-align deleveraging with profit growth. We see this as a significant positive.

Upgrade to BUY rating, raising target to 475p

We have significantly increased our target on KAZ to reflect stronger production growth from Bozshakol (and potentially Aktogay), higher copper prices and a much improved cash generation profile to match revised maturities. Our revised target comes out to 475p (based on 2017 P/E, EV/EBITDA and NPV), over triple our previous 155p target. With over 20% potential upside to our target we upgrade to a BUY rating. While this upside is much more muted than KAZ equity gains in the past year, we still expect KAZ's growth story to continue into 2018.