Just Retirement Share Discussion Threads

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 15:04

gone 144.25p now

look director bought earlier at 151p

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 15:03

If that 143p goes it will boom

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 14:57

500K buy

350K Buy

and tick up

[19th hole] 20/3/2014 14:47

Bog standard annuities will be gone.

Enhanced annuities will also suffer badly Imo. Enhanced rates are there because the annuity provider believes your life expectancy is shorter. Therefore, would you not want to take the whole pot - or do capped drawdown to 150% of GAD (very probably a better return than an enhanced annuity..... certainly more flexible!!) - and get your money while you can for yourself and your estate.

Could always buy property or an investment bond to give a 5% tax deferred income for 20 years (no tax to pay if a BR taxpayer). You get income and still have the capital albeit with some risk but doesn't have to be huge.

[euclid5] 20/3/2014 14:38

powerpack, there is an investment risk when you buy annuity - because what are the rules when that person passes away - there spouse does not get the annuity for the rest of their lives, o do they, don't think so

so £200k annuity that pays out 5% pa & then that person passes away 7 years later - what happens to the £200k - doubt the rules allow the spouse or a family member to claim that back from the pension provider

Alternative is pensioners can buy AAA blue chip bonds insted as one alternative & get a fixed income until maturity of the bond - eg General Electric - Swiss Re

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 14:37

You have been warned 180p by monday

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 14:37

BOTS reversing.

-50% fall since yesterday.

should close min 150p

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 14:25

Stampede over

Pile in

[chesty1] 20/3/2014 14:06

going lower......Market says not yet....

[bad robot] 20/3/2014 13:40

Looks like the bounce back to 180p

[dr biotech] 20/3/2014 13:02

In fairness here the co has tried its best - released a statement and a director has bought in (or his wife). Can't help but think a lot of people in the future though will just take the money and not do anything with it. May be a long term buy when it becomes clearer.

[scrapheap] 20/3/2014 13:01

I'd hope so but it's nothing more informed than that! More people receiving advice at time of retirement must be a good thing and should make a more competitive market and drawdown has been a niche area for many years and to expect it to become mass market is some leap of faith. Not least the regulators historically haven't been to keen on it for unsophisticated pensioners...

[scrapheap] 20/3/2014 12:44

I'm an IFA and still expect enhanced annuities to have a market for my clients - it's the bog standard annuities and insurers who are most exposed. I've bought heavily today JRG and PA on this logic (please note though this is a personal speculation and high risk and I'm not authorised to recommend shares, dyor)

Gawd help me if I'm wrong!!

[simon gordon] 20/3/2014 12:43

Deutsche:

In Just Retirement's case, 75% of profits derive from new business in
individual annuities, though the group has just started to make some
headway in winning SME bulk schemes, which could help to offset a
modicum of sales pressure. As a monocline writer, the more negative
the reaction in new business, the more there is also likely to be
associated cost pressures. In our view, there is likely to be extreme
levels of uncertainty over the next few quarters as sales almost
inevitably drop sharply – on the back of which we would expect the
shares to find support somewhere between EV (178p) and TNAV
(144p) – shown with other stocks in Figure 3.. In this regard, we note
that the VIF element of the EV is based on unit costs that are based on
a certain level of new business continuing to come in. A sharp drop in
sales could put pressure on this assumption. Ditto, the TNAV also
needs to be treated with a degree of care as part of the capital in JR
will be tied up within the group for 15-20 years.
Reflecting the uncertainty around the outlook, we downgrade JR to
Hold, and set a price target in line with EV (178p).

[abcd1234] 20/3/2014 12:41

broker update.....




Panmure

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 Trading update.

The group has experienced challenging trading conditions since the start of the 2014 calendar year and LFL sales growth has slowed from 0.8% YTD to flat and as such earnings are likely to be broadly similar to last year.

 Outlook.

The group also expects a flatter profit growth profile next year reflecting investment in the business as it scales to 300 stores and capitalises on the digital opportunity. These investments will include new office space, a larger and more efficient distribution facility to handle higher volumes, establishing its own in-house e-commerce development team and increasing the size of its Commercial sales team. The group is also increasing investment in both staff training and in CRM and data analytics capabilities. FY 2014E results will be reported on 16 June.

 Forecasts.

We anticipate a c5% downgrade to FY 2014E earnings to c£23.5m PBT and a c13% downgrade to FY 2015E earnings to £24-25m PBT. We will firm up our forecasts following a conversation with management.

 Valuation.

Pre-downgrades the stock trades on a FY 2015E P/E of 15.6x an EV/EBITDA of 9.4x and yields 4.0%. The stock retains attractive long-term growth characteristics and we are inclined to view this as a blip – notwithstanding the need to invest in some of the older stores – and we reiterate our Buy recommendation but reduce our target price from 635p to 550p.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[dasv] 20/3/2014 12:05

director buy for wife £75k at 155p

[chesty1] 20/3/2014 10:32

Into auction & market killing this one.

[dr biotech] 20/3/2014 09:27

I can't help but think we are sowing the seeds of a disaster here. Most of the country is in debt and are financially illiterate. Still it will be easier to pass the money on to the kids.

[tara7] 20/3/2014 09:02

What is so sad is the fact that most pension pots could only buy a new car.!

One needs well over a million quid to retire and not have to worry about bills in old age.

SEE MY SIPP THREAD.

[edwardt] 20/3/2014 08:55

if there average annuity is greater than 50k i am a buyer, if it less than 30k, this is toast- anyone know the figures pls?

[warranty] 20/3/2014 08:52

As a former trustee of our Pension Fund I can absolutely tell you that very few people are sufficiently informed or aware of anything related to pensions which is why over 95% of people use their schemes "Lifestyle" options preferring others to manage their assets for them. Unless there is a major change in attitude and education on pensions and investments, I don't see this changing any time soon. More people will probably take the Drawdown option following the reduction to £12k but they will still need advice on where exactly to invest it. They say as one door closes another opens and JRG will just need to find other ways to manage peoples money along with those who will still want to ensure a steady and guaranteed income from an annuity. I think the share price drop is justified under the uncertainty but a bit overdone and could be a good buying opportunity when it settles.