Invltd Nm Share Discussion Threads

[cjpaul] 29/12/2004 14:17

HI KLM,
My picm for 2005 will be:
1. JRVS
2.LNGO
3.PXC

[keeplosingman] 29/12/2004 14:11

This is that time again. What do regular punters think will be the shares of 2005? I know that ADVFN have a competition for each year. I thought it would be nice to share their picks. For me, mine are three are:
1. MT.
2. PET.
3. RTD
Good luck to all for 2005
KLM

[theape] 29/12/2004 01:22

a couple of things niggling me as a bear.

1. Iraq. much as I disagree with the war its notable for the ability of the US to fight a major war without raising taxes- this may even have been the main point they are trying to prove.

2. Bushs 2nd term agenda.
doing a thatcher on social security. large private sector money flows into the markets for years to come.

3. outspend china- hmm. we won the cold war by outspending russia (and it worked because we had a free econonmy, they didnt, they bankrupted themselves).
so whats the approach with china? there must be a long term plan

so bored with markets.

[collection agency] 28/12/2004 21:01

E, a useful summing up article:

[johnpaul1] 28/12/2004 14:55

We're all doomed, doomed i say !! I have to agree Niggle it can get you down a bit. He's been well out on the housing crash, but his posting are interesting and worth some consideration.

[thedickster] 28/12/2004 08:22

Cheers Blackstone

[niggle] 28/12/2004 01:03

Get in the ring now! and justify this rubbish!













































































































































































































































































!

[niggle] 28/12/2004 01:03

Get in the ring now! and justify this rubbish!

[collection agency] 27/12/2004 19:14

E, could be. The good old carry trade as a pure speculative trade.

[thedickster] 27/12/2004 19:01

Blackstone, great charts, if you like a longer term perspective, especially one which gives you a turning point in the trend, where r they from if u don't mind me asking, never really been able to find a reliable source that goes back that far

[energyi] 26/12/2004 22:02

CA,
Your:
"often-unruly brand of investor has been buying U.S. Treasuries as never before: hedge funds... amassed some of the world's largest holdings of U.S. government securities"

The question is: Why?
I reckon that they must be borrowing a cheaper short term rates, to buy the Bonds.
TRADE RESULT::
Short term rates rose, but stayed below Bond yields, so there was a Yield pick up. And Longterm rates fell/ Bonds rose, so there was a capital gain on the bonds,
as well as the yield pick up.

BUT FROM HERE...
If they decide to SELL, they may unwind quickly, which could bring a sharp and sudden fall in Bond prices

[collection agency] 26/12/2004 19:53

Thks E, it also means that if the $ accelerates to the downside we know which index to watch.

Also, I have been watching this situation grow over the past few months:

December 20 - Bloomberg (Monee Fields-White and Vivianne C. Rodrigues): "U.S. President George W. Bush enters his second term awash in red ink. The nation confronts a series of annual budget deficits that may total $3.6 trillion by 2014, the Congressional Budget Office says. As the government seeks to finance those gaps in the bond market, an often-unruly brand of investor has been buying U.S. Treasuries as never before: hedge funds. Loosely regulated investment vehicles for institutions and the wealthy, hedge funds piled into the $3.8 trillion Treasury market during 2004. One clue to their purchases: Investors based in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, the Netherlands Antilles and Panama -- tax-friendly jurisdictions where thousands of these funds are registered -- have amassed some of the world's largest holdings of U.S. government securities, Treasury Department figures show. Caribbean Treasury investments soared 54 percent to $85.2 billion during the first 10 months of 2004, seven times the 8.3 percent increase in all of 2003. The region is now the fourth-largest holder of U.S. government debt, behind Japan, China and the U.K."

[energyi] 26/12/2004 19:13

CA,
You might like this comparison:

Here's SPX, driving higher ...

...and now SPX-in Euros, which seem much less overbought ...


No wonder breadth is so thin! Foreign-currency-minded investors are buying the narrow major-index-stocks as a hedge on currency depreciation, as the falling dollar pushes up earnings of companies with global business

[collection agency] 26/12/2004 17:50

yeh, they are all gold bulls

[darkside of the moon] 26/12/2004 14:52

is financial nonsense still in business

[collection agency] 26/12/2004 14:50

Worth a read:

[energyi] 24/12/2004 15:35

Blackstone;
Nice chart! a "23" top?

Sure, why not? The breadth numbers on the market are very poor now.

[michaeld] 24/12/2004 10:36

Yes, who knows what would happen to these various currency/stock/commodity charts if the USD collapses? Japan is thought to hold huge USD deposits? Gold might be the best bet?

[blackstone] 24/12/2004 10:28

also to be taken with pinch of salt
maybe some bubbles deflate in the same pattern as they inflated
Japan
I think we are at past point 10 and a pattern is starting afresh

[blackstone] 24/12/2004 00:19

A really big pinch of salt required with this one