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[michaeld] 24/1/2005 23:29

'I promise to pay the bearer on demand' says The Bank of England. At one time this promise was backed up by something of solid tangible value; gold but Mr Brown has sold most of it to buy paper Euros.
So, the value of the paper pound is now supported by paper dollars and paper Euros and the paper mountain gets bigger and bigger. It's wonderful to think that the Asian manufacturing nations and the OPEC countries will continue to supply us and the other 'Western' or US style economies with all that machinery, electronic equipment and oil for more and more pieces of paper. The banks love all that paper as they sit in their counting houses eating bread and honey and taking their cut as they just print more and more. The USA and Australia can back up there pieces of paper to some extent; high tech gear (US) mineral commodities(AUS) and food but poor little old UK doesn't have a lot going for it now. Never mind lets just 'spend, spend, spend' our pieces of paper until someone wakes up to the fact that it isn't worth much anymore now that our oil is beginning to run out?!
Maybe when the paper bubble bursts we'll start supporting our farmers again because we are going to need them. They in turn are likely to go and tell the likes of Tesco to go and get lost because we'll now sell our precious milk or whatever from the farm gate after you bled us dry of any profit?
British goods will become cheap again and manufacturing may then recover? The British Industrial revolution will have gone full circle.

[clem] 24/1/2005 16:52

Well Energyi, its interesting to put Euro/US on a chart of the indexes. It almost looks like the euro is driving the equity markets not the dollar. Now that really would be interesting... :)

[brindy] 21/1/2005 18:50

Broadstairs is in Kent...near Margate

[energyi] 21/1/2005 18:45

REMINDS ME... of the Late Seventies / Early Eighties

Whe people worried that America's insatiable demand for "expensive" oil woula allow the OPEC arabs to buy up America with their excess dollars.

In the end, the Arabs made a few high-profile acquisitions, but little came of it.

THIS TIME... if JW is right...
The Foreign buyers may direct their puchasing activity towards Canada, and Canadians may find the Chines replace the Americans as their new acquisitive partners.

IT STRIKES me that the Chinese will be smarters buyers than the Arabs were

[energyi] 21/1/2005 18:42

COULD JIM WILLIE be right?

"China has begun its bold attempt to execute an end run ...
...around the commodity market, to secure their future supply, and in effect to gradually lock out American customers. This is a brilliant pre-emptive attack, which US leaders do not recognize yet. To the untrained eye, this appears to be a positive development. It is, but mainly to investors and producers of gold, silver, copper, oil, gas, and other commodities. To all others, it is an utter curse yet to be acknowledged, and a precursor to trade war. The captured booty will be mineral and energy properties, which will elevate the tone of the commodity bull market and eventually trigger a bidding war on mining and energy stocks in the coming years. Political fallout is certain. Tensions will heighten."

Some common themes emerge as direct impacts from Chinese acquisition.

+ Rise in Canadian Dollar toward parity (with large cash infusions into Canada)
+ Legitimate strengthening of economies which sell to China (Canada & others)
+ Secure supply lines to China (possibly locking out USA at the margin, but also improving Canadian political clout)
+ Worsen rising production cost inflation to US Economy since metals and energy are largely imported to the USA (more of the same cost squeeze)
+ Little if any production cost inflation in Canada (offset from rising Can$)
+ No notable infusion of money supply inside US Economy (a non-player)
+ Withdrawn Chinese demand for US Treasurys and Mortgage bonds (possibly rising interest rates)
+ Bidding war on stocks for precious metals mining stocks, industrial metals mining stocks, energy stocks, and energy services stocks (large benefit to Canadian investors, negligible benefit to US investors)
@:
- -

Jim Willie is a maverick thinker,
and NOT afraid to challenge conventional wisdoms

[energyi] 21/1/2005 18:38

Paul,
Where is Broadstairs?

[shadowside] 21/1/2005 12:40

CA. A good read and rings a lot of bells.No coincidence that the Chinese invented GO which is all based on surrounding your opponent at the same time they think they are surrounding you!!

[paulismyname] 21/1/2005 12:09

E, re photo. Wife and I think it looks a bit like Broadstairs sea front, houses to the left look very familier but since Victorian times there has been a lot of developement on that front

[collection agency] 21/1/2005 08:57

agreed topbidd, It may or may not happen as he lays it out but a good highlight of the areas involved.

[topbidd] 21/1/2005 08:48

CA,

An interesting (although very speculative) read, very thought provoking.

[collection agency] 21/1/2005 01:24

E, worth a read:

[ben gunn] 18/1/2005 18:01

en
looks to me like Brighton looking east in about the 1870s. The buildings underwater would have been demolished in the 1880s to make way for the entrance to the East Pier- "Oh What a Lovely War" and all that.

[fickena] 18/1/2005 15:22

ASM up 2.5%
CEN up 7.5%
OXB up 11.6%
YRK up 6.6%
VER up .6%

[fickena] 18/1/2005 13:36

CEN up 7.5% (edit up 9%)
OXB up 10.1%
YRK up 6.6%
VER up .6%

Good day all round, I suspect that Nomura are recongfiguring their Biotech portfolio and buying at least CEN, OXB and YRK.

Hopefully this should add some strength to the underliying price and see continued upwards movement. Still lots of newsflow to come!

[fickena] 18/1/2005 10:37

CEN, OXB and ASM all rising at the moment. Thanks Qaz have made the change.

[energyi] 17/1/2005 18:08

michael,
Hastings?
That's an interesting clue. I wonder if anyone knows the spot

[qazwsx123] 17/1/2005 14:18

Fickena I think your reference to CENES's:

"CNS 3161 Phase II results due in H1 2005";

should actually refer to

"CNS 5161 (neuropathic pain) Phase II results due in H1 2005".

i.e. "5161", not "3161".

[michaeld] 16/1/2005 10:42

There are similar scenes to your photo published in www.orcadian.co.uk Energyi, showing last weeks 'hurricane' backed seas hitting various locations around Orkney last week. I don't know where your photo is from but it looks old, like around 1900 and possibly somewhere like Hastings seafront? I wonder if that house or whatever on the front survived? Doubt it.

[collection agency] 16/1/2005 00:31

E, south coast hasn't seen a Tsunami. The east coast was badly flooded by a storm that also coincided with high spring tides in the late 50's? Dutch were badly hit too. Many fatalities and much damage done.

Not unusual for storms around the UK to produce 30-50ft breaking waves at shore, the defences are designed to break up the impact.

Brair, the ishare should reflect the reit, vols would be a true indicator of feeling

[briarberry] 15/1/2005 22:20

REIT - looking at the fall in the ishares (if you can compare the 2?), the move had some vol too, must be the fear of rising interest rates




Wave photo - looks like people built their houses on the beach in olden days :) ;)

[collection agency] 15/1/2005 20:02

Speaking of impending waves, fall set up:

[energyi] 14/1/2005 22:49

UK TSUNAMI...? Did it happen here years ago?

A rare old photo: that I bought some time ago


Is this the UK? Brighton?
Anyone recognise it?
Does it show a Tsunami hitting the UK seacoast?

[fickena] 14/1/2005 21:31

Cheers guys, busy weekend coming up will have a look when the head clears!