Invltd Nm Share Discussion Threads

[tpaulbeaumont] 23/12/2004 16:49

mike - lol, yes, their personal values are just too different from the wests. its a shame their magpie-like attraction to shiny things doesnt stretch to manners too!

Merry xmas!

[energyi] 23/12/2004 16:03

MONTHLY chart

[michaeld] 23/12/2004 15:49

Good for you energyi. Happy Christmas and New Year to all.

[energyi] 23/12/2004 15:43

Michael,
I have spoken with them about it, and they paln to do so.
I have my own China business ideas, that I am developing with others.

More about this within a few weeks, if you are interested

[tpaulbeaumont] 23/12/2004 11:46

mike - yeah, heard lots of stories like that. having not only lived in SE Asia for 4 years i also socialise with lots of expats and i gather commisions r common everywhere, outright corruption IS rampant, everywhere, and teh mainland chinese especially r just hard ppl 2 deal with, they just dont wish to deal with foreigners unless they absolutely have to. they'll even lose $ because of it.

[blackstone] 23/12/2004 11:22

will a commodities boom mean a transport boom?

[energyi] 23/12/2004 09:43

MARKETOCRACY has a thread with Views of 2005.

I liked this one for its simplicity:

AUTHOR: moydodyr RANK: Top Return DATE: Dec 22, 2004
PAST RANK:
My outlook for 2005 is pretty much unchanged. All the themes we had in 2004 are still here, even more pronounced now.

- if you produce what China produces, you lose
- if you produce what China needs, you win
- american consumer is still spending beyond his means
- the american gubmint is still spending beyond their means
- the war is still going on with no end in sight
- commodity inflation is here and accelerating
- the dollar is weak
- the stocks are overbought
- the bonds are overbought
- real estate is overbought

we had this situation a year ago and nothing really changed. Yet.

Expect more of the same themes that gave me a 35% investment return this year:

- bet on all commodities, from meat to copper
- bet against the US dollar
- bet on energy and water
- bet on asia
- bet on south america and east europe
- bet on dividend payers
- stay away from T-bills, real estate and Nasdaq

and you'll do just fine :o)
@:

[energyi] 23/12/2004 00:36

michaeld,

It is a long cycle at work. All things pass, in`cluding Imperial Power

[michaeld] 22/12/2004 23:09

Re your post 19 Energyi I think that now might be a good time to invest in a new horse and cart?! Also, in my case a shire horse or two for farmwork. Or, hopefully somebody might discover a new kind of engine that seperates the hydrogen and oxygen in water (eg by electrolysis) and then reburns it? Less pollution.

[michaeld] 22/12/2004 22:52

Interesting posts Energyi thanks. Your analysis is pretty much in line with my own thinking except that I am not sure that there will be a collapse in the value of the USD leading to 'the perfect storm'? I certainly hope not because as you point out it is now the World's reserve currency for commodity trading etc and a collapse would cause chaos and financial instability Worldwide until new forms of reserve currency stabilised (eg gold, Swiss Francs etc).
However, imho the USD must be allowed to fall further against other currencies, esp the cheap labour countries for there to be 'a soft landing'? The USA has a non sustainable level of trade deficit & national debt and we in Britain are heading the same way. The situation in the USA has been made worse by the lifting of trade sanctions against China as cheap goods are now flooding in from there, where its boom time. They are becoming wealthy and the next thing is they will be building up their armed services to become another Superpower?!
Do all super powers eventually over extend themselves and go bust? Around the time of the first World War Britain had huge armed services; vast navy etc but we've been going downhill ever since as the cost was unsustainable. Russia was in the same boat a few years ago and we have seen what happened there. The USA will probably be forced into similar decline soon especially if it continues to build up debt. The 'reserve currency' situation has helped a lot hitherto because more and more USD have been in circulation for oil trading etc but soon people will start to say that they don't want paying in USD (if they haven't started to already?). Then the problems begin?
Anyway, lets all hope that the USD/economy has a soft landing.

[energyi] 22/12/2004 17:22

IKE'S GUESTS THINK the Top may be in...

lots of free interviews on marketviews this week, it must be Christmas :)

COURTESY OF MARKETVIEWS.TV:
===========================
Dr. Stool, talks about a "confluence of cycles" which suggest that an intermediate term top is in.


Larry Katz, expects more gains.


Jim Curry, expects more of a pullback in the short term, but a resumption of the rally in late January.


Walter Bressert, opines that the 4 year cycle will take place next summer.


Fari Hamzei, is short-term neutral, but talks about the possibility of a parabolic move in January, according to his market sources.


David Aloyan, asks: "who's left to buy?"


Alan Newman, talks about the "metamorphosis" of the U.S. markets, and the reasons behind the recent failure of sentiment indicators.


Brian Pretti, talks about the new definition of "value investor" and the FED's success in stimulating the Asian economies.


(with thnx to BriarBerry)

[energyi] 22/12/2004 17:21

THE BREADTH IN THIS MARKET IS POOR:

[energyi] 22/12/2004 17:20

BAD BREADTH is giving a Warning for next year...

The Textbook says, EXCERPT:
"Confirmation occurs when both the underlying average and the new high/low figures are "in gear." On the chart below, for example, in November 2003 the NYSE broke through 6000 and at the same time the number of new highs surged to just over 600. This is analogous to the generals leading the foot soldiers forward. The large capitalization and small-cap stocks are all marching together and the market as a whole is technically healthy.






Bullish or bearish divergence can occur in one of two ways. At a top, bearish divergence can be signaled if the market reaches a new peak, yet the number of new highs is approximately equal to the previous new high figure. We saw this kind of divergence happened in the NYSE in early January, as the index rallied to 6500, yet the number of new highs again peaked at its previous level of 600.

A second kind of bearish divergence happens when the index hits a new high in price, but the number of new highs is actually lower than previous levels. This kind of bearish divergence can be seen in late January and early March 2004. In late January, the NYSE reached a closing peak of 6672.04, but new highs were just over 500. In early March when the NYSE hit its recovery high at 6780.03, new highs had receded to under 500.

This kind of bearish divergence signals that fewer stocks are being swept ahead when the average rallies to new high ground. Beneath the obvious surface price action, technical deterioration is taking place. However, this is often unknown to most investors (at least those who don't regularly track this indicator). If this type of bearish divergence persists long enough, then the market typically reverses course."

@:

[tpaulbeaumont] 21/12/2004 06:58

Richard Russel says in teh 20th century there was only 1 year ending in 5 that ended down, 1935(where the high was in Jan)

years that end in 5's aint bad! 8s + 9s r good to lol

[energyi] 20/12/2004 20:02

America will AGAIN be a great place to live, after the storm hits
and does its worst.

THE REBOUND OF AMERICA will start when:

+ Americans stop being such thoughtless consumers of the worlds resources,
+ They cut back dramatically on their oil consumption,
+ Downsizing of cars, homes, and lifestyles becomes widespread,
+ Export oriented manufacturing comes back into vogue,
+ America's food exports become the envy of the world: "Saudis of Grain",
+ The Dollar is so low that the Chinese have lost their competitive edge,
+ American inventiveness is turned towards alternative energy innovations.

I think it will take 3-5 years, but the worst of the storm may take only
2-3 years

[briarberry] 20/12/2004 18:52

interesting, but i'm still thinkin that the American Dream is going to get a hair cut...

it doesn't take any/many highly skilled people to oil robotic arms on production lines, so looks like the Economist is expecting the services & leisure industry to expand a little ?

BTK looks ripe for expansion but Bush is banning a big part of the research

people go/stay where the money is, did anyone ever have a choice ?

America started off well with it's vast amounts of fertile land, & then found lots coal at the start of the industrial revolution, it then found lots of oil, just at the right time too. but recently they've grown lazy on their rich diet, & are now due a correction, & very likely a trend change towards Asia because, for one thing, the playing field will be much more level if America's oil continues to run out (they have more in Alaska of course).

also i believe that, global markets, communication, the law of averages etc will even things out in the end anyway

[clem] 20/12/2004 16:18

Energyi.

I think they'll go because of the 'American dream' is still very much in place for most of the world. American freedom is unbelievably attractive in countries where your not allowed to have 3 kids, grow your hair long, worship a minority god, open a business if your not related to the 'big man' etc

China. Still think the chances of china making it to democratic market economy with out some kind of massive upheaval are 50/50.

[clem] 20/12/2004 15:31

Great Macro post energyi.

A few points worth considering:

US population set to rise significantly (400m?) through immigration of highly skilled people from around the world. This will offset demise of baby boomers. (See Economist editorial a year or so back)

China investments have massive political risk. Recent China Oil fiasco underlines problems of Chinesse business practices and graft. Can you get out with your winnings?

Whole pacific rim exploding +India +Russia, so China is just another player.

When does the classic commodity cycle hit oversupply? 2 3 years? Never?

[tpaulbeaumont] 20/12/2004 08:48

i saw your post on EPIC:GOLD as it happens, but in answer to my question u think GOLD will make headway in traditionally strong January. ok

[energyi] 20/12/2004 08:29

Fair point.
Gold has been mostly stagnant against the Euro.

As to its current pause against the Dollay, if you'd been reading
the Gold thread, you would have read that I was expecting a $10-20
correction lasting into about mid-December from the time gold approached
$450. I reckon gold will begin to move up again after Christmas.
January is usually a good time for Gold and Gold shares