Infrastructure India Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 14/1/2010 16:57

interesting after hours rns ... Advance now getting pushy .. they want control here, imo. IIP bod not playing ball at present.

[mattjos] 08/1/2010 21:56

added here yesterday

[traderinthemaking] 08/1/2010 06:35

I am fully loaded with IIP. I reshuffled my entire ISA over the last few weeks between 4 positions and IIP is my 3rd largest (approx 22%). The volume are so small any move up, on volume increase, should be quite sharp so I am happy to wait some weeks/months on this one.

It shall be interesting to see where we are within 2 years :)

TITM

[mattjos] 06/1/2010 18:40

jh .. r you lurking here?

[mattjos] 06/1/2010 18:39

mangal .. agree .. few more days of quiet to go yet .. interesting that it ticked up this pm on a few sells & continues to drop into auction in the day .. I wonder? Loked a little stronger on L2 today for first time in a while.

Perhaps Advance are after a few more to ensure they stay over 10% in case IIP try anything on the qt... game of cat & mouse being acted out here and the first one to show their hand will give the game away pretty quickly cos the daily volumes amount to nothing .. patience required but i think the volume will be the 'tell' in the short term .... we should be due an update on the hydro soon .. believe first runs were due to take place in December & that will be a great piece of news gving some increased visibility on earnings flow this year ... i struggle to see why any informed existing holders would be tempted to sell a this juncture other than to take profits or go and chase something else.

[mangal] 06/1/2010 17:00

Keep faith with this one. It will come good - look at that graph.

[ilostthelot] 06/1/2010 16:52

I am lurking Matt.Intersted in the warrents .I am not buying just yet.

[mattjos] 04/1/2010 12:05

a few now beginning to see the value here, imo.

[mattjos] 01/1/2010 12:38

Background info on the infrastructure opportunity in India .. helps explain what Advance would like to get it's hands on this fund & create some economies of scale going forward ... as both a short term (given the current stance of Advance here) and long term investment in Indian infrastructure, IIP is an attractive proposition:

[mattjos] 31/12/2009 09:23

for a quiet thread this share does some bizarre things at times. I don't know if it's the mm's moving it about to get some action or if someone has to sell a few by close of the year but the price is moving aound all over the shop on next to zero volume. anybody else watching or am i alone here these days?

[incontinentia buttocks] 23/12/2009 09:29

I guess the question now is when will the EGM be called (or can IIP turn down the request even if Advance own more than 10%). Not sure how long these things take or whether it is governed by a set of rules from the Exchange...will have a dig around as soon as the Crimbo shopping is finished....

[mattjos] 22/12/2009 16:55

IB .. no problem. time will tell here ... one seller and it gets moved down today. bit stupid really. I believe Advance raise some good points and a challenge like this and at this time should be welcomed by shareholders .. IIP have been tardy of late but that is probably complicated by their seeming fall out with BAM & having to find another adviser. Advance clearly have a better relationship with BAM ... it was BAM that got into these first two investments (excellent choices imo) and IIP have looked a little lost without them. If Advance wrest control & reunite IIP with BAM then I'd take that as a strong +ve here

[incontinentia buttocks] 22/12/2009 16:19

Thank you Mattjos for your very comprehensive reply. I guess the question to a degree is that though as you say the actions of Advance have made things a little more interesting short term, will their possible wresting of control be of greater benefit long term, given that from what little I understand of the situation they are primarily not happy with the speed with which existing board are growing the company.

I currently only invest within my SIPP and have been looking for some small stocks that have huge potential in developing markets to tuck away for the future (at least 25 years until I retire). Think I will keep an eye on this one and see what happens re the Advance situation. Have just bought a few LONR which is one I know I have seen your name on the BB.

Anyway, once again thanks for your comments and information above

[mattjos] 21/12/2009 22:13

IB - It's really around your question that one of the two opportunities in this share exist!

1. If you work on the value of their initial investments for valuation purposes .. £24.5m invested in the two inital projects .. 36.7m shares in issue = Historic NAV of 66.8p

2. If you take their more conservative 'single discount rate' for valuation purposes .. the value was £30.9m at end Sept ... 36.7m shares in issue = NAV of 84p

3. If you use their 'stated valuation' methodology the two investments are valued at £56.5m .... over the 36.7m shares = NAV of £1.54

the 7.34m Warrants need to be taken into account ..... one warrant = right to subscibe for 5 Ordinaries (over the next 3 years now) at strike price of £1.

Exchange rates & the managers future fees also need taking into account.

At end Sept they had £3.9m in cash - £881k additional spend on the road project (14 Oct) = £3m cash .... so no real effect on the share price

So the market seems to be saying .... It's worth about 9% less than was originally spent back in 2008 but, we now have the road tolling due to start early 2010 & the Hydro plant due to start producing some electricity in H1 2010 also.
Competition for projects such as these has heated up considerably through H2 2009 following the election in india and their intention to make infrastructure a priority .... i doubt it is now possible to emulate such an investment portfolio at this price.

As the projects continue to become de-risked through early 2010 the valuation ascribed to the shares will move from 1) above to 2) i.e. from 67p to 84p.
When revenue starts to come in then the valuation should start to go from 2) to 3) i.e. from 84p to £1.54

So I see Advance is being a bit opportunistic here .. it wants to, effectively, get control of this fund on the cheap and before the re-rating occurs next year ... nice quiet December looks like good time to start that process & I don't think IIP can do an awful lot about it right now ... imo, they are looking vulnerable.

If you can keep an eye on this on L2 during the day ... it started regularly going into Auction seveal times during the day around the time that Advance started acquiring .... it continues to go into Auction & I think they and/or someone else is trying to pick a few up here now that Advance have gone public .. maybe IIP will try to use some of it's £3m to buy back its own shares & take Advance back below 10% - probably not as i imagine Advance have more firepower than IIP do right now .. who knows.

The underlying investments are still in place and will re-value at their own pace ... short term though Advance have just made this a little more desirable than I believed it to be when i first invested on a longer term basis

[incontinentia buttocks] 17/12/2009 20:31

Hi Mattjos, just wondered what you have as the figure for NAV. Can't find it on advfn, many thanks.....

[mangal] 17/12/2009 08:58

Yesterday's announcement should have been a boost to the shares- surprised that it hasn't pushed the share price up.

[mattjos] 16/12/2009 21:03

mangal .. well that it is interesting &, i think, extremely well put by Advance .... Indian Infrastrucre sector generally is revving up for a long period of activity ... any moves here that get IIP more into the action & on a lower overhead structure is welcomed by me. No idea what it will do for the share price short term but interesting to watch events. Not a massive holding for me but it is one that i was intendig to add to any day now.

[mangal] 16/12/2009 17:25

Well, now we know why Advance was buying:

[mattjos] 15/12/2009 00:09

Advance now gone 11% .... need a corresponding holdings statement to know who is selling

[mattjos] 09/12/2009 15:58

pops in and out of auction this one at odd times .. think there may be another large trade floating about

[mattjos] 02/12/2009 15:01

Advance now gone over 10% .. they certainly see something here

[mattjos] 02/12/2009 12:20

it went into auction again earlier this morning just when the Offer touched 70 ... i think there is a trade from earlier today yet to be revealed but pleasing to see that there are buyers seeing value here

[mangal] 02/12/2009 10:35

Now amongst the top-% risers of the day.