Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[spawny100] 12/12/2017 16:24

No boast here. I'd be adding on this dip if this share wasn't already such a bloody big part of my portfolio now!

[uncleoswald] 12/12/2017 16:22

I think people who boast about the size of their holdings is probably a psychological
comfort!

[ashehzi] 12/12/2017 16:19

looks like it was in day traders hands and also led to sell from weak hands upon fall...

[spawny100] 12/12/2017 16:15

Lol it gets tipped and drops. We were due a down day

[topdiesel] 12/12/2017 16:15

Yep there's that classic IMM end of day dump and shed a few % to the daily trading.

[adejuk] 12/12/2017 16:03

now i just hold and kneel a lot
:-)

[adejuk] 12/12/2017 16:02

flavio
i've been trading it

[qazwsxedc69] 12/12/2017 15:57

I picked up about 20k for 21.50p on 1st December 2015. Not sure it got much lower than that.

[hottingup] 12/12/2017 15:51

By my reckoning the last patient could receive their last dose around the end of this week.

[hottingup] 12/12/2017 15:51

There is a small pull back on every rise but the rise is now the trend.

On the basis we assume Lupuzor passes Phase 3 in Q1 2018 then any valuation of Lupuzor / P140 must start as a minimum with the $3.6 billion paid in 2012 by GSK to acquire HGSi's 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta - effectively valuing 100% of Benlysta at $7 billion - equating to an IMM share price around £40.

To that $7 billion (£40) should then be added something for inflation during what in 2018 will then be the last 6 years since 2012; Lupuzor (I assume) being more efficaceous, having less or no side effects and being cheaper to produce, than Benlysta; use in other indications (including off label and on label) some of which have market sizes many times larger than for lupus; new patent granted to 2032 in key countries (USA, EU, China, India and Japan) covering Lupuzor and its use in the treatment of the majority of autoimmune diseases such as Sjogrens syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's, CIDP, Guillan-Barre disease (announced 27/9/2017); and a new patent recently filed (2017) to cover non-autoimmune indications.

Consequently the value of Lupuzor in Q1 2018 should be much higher than $7 billion (potentially multiples) and the share price much higher than £40.

N.B.
Lupuzor Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards -


Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

[hamhamham1] 12/12/2017 15:50

I find that usually people who feel the need to boast about size of holdings and their incredible low averages are kinda lacking something in life. Social graces being a good starting point.

[flavio_monteiro] 12/12/2017 15:44

Hamhamham1...the price NEVER reached the teens..I have been in these from 95p down to 20p! Also topped up lots of times....

[hamhamham1] 12/12/2017 15:41

And to average 20p, you must have bought some in the teens if any others were bought at 21p+. Amazing

[alphapig] 12/12/2017 15:38

Wasn't the placing at 20p?

[flavio_monteiro] 12/12/2017 15:36

adejuk...if your average is 20p you are a very skilled purchaser of IMM stock as this offer price was only reached for about 3 hours and about 3 years ago.... and the LOWEST Offer price ever!

[aussieb3] 12/12/2017 15:33

If everyone thought about things logically. Stage 3 should be roughly about the same as stage 2 in way of results maybe a few percent up or or down. As stage 3 trials are based on stage 2 best results on methods of 200 mg of lupus. If everyone want to buy and sell on dips eventually people will lose out . Might as well just hold and wait for at least for everyone to complete the trial which should be soon. Or wait for the real gains results of the trials .

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2017 15:26

adejuk,

correct...they are. But, to date the updates provided have all been positive with efficacy at a high level.

Still, as you say it is a binary bet as they will either be a success of require further testing/refinement via a second trial ( phase IIIb) and the share price will react accordingly which is why these shouldn't be a large percentage of anyone's portfolio or be with money people can;t afford to take a hit on.

However....on a risk/reward bases, I am struggling to find others currently on the LSE to match IMM

[adejuk] 12/12/2017 15:15

all these ramping predictions are contingent on success of ph3 trial.
just conjecture.
i hold 50 k at an ave of 20p

[top tips] 12/12/2017 14:49

Shares magazine
Why the drug space is looking more attractive
Shares in parts of the sector are rising and there is a rich stream of news flow in the coming months
Thur 26 Oct 2017
Author: Lisa-Marie Janes



It has been a volatile few years for the healthcare industry with several headwinds acting as a drag on performance, including the threat of drug pricing caps and healthcare reform in the US. Is life now getting better?

The NASDAQ Biotech index in early October traded at its highest level since December 2015. On the UK stock market, shares in many drug makers have been in a rising trend since late summer 2017.

Panmure Gordon has even upgraded its stance on the pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and healthcare sector to ‘positive’, believing the next nine months to be a strong period for UK life science company news.

‘Multiple significant trial readouts are expected, companies are generally well funded and many of the headwinds seen in previous quarters are easing,’ says analyst Julie Simmonds.

Trump turns attention to tax

Simmonds believes many headwinds that dragged on the performance of the overall sector such as the attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in the US and drug pricing pressures are easing.

‘Healthcare reform in the US is moving to the back burner to be replaced by tax reform, which could have a more positive outcome for the sector,’ says the analyst.

The pressure on pharmaceutical companies to cut drug prices has receded as an immediate threat, but Simmonds flags companies will need to remain conscious on prices at launch and if they choose to hike prices.

This could lead to a more imaginative approach to pricing such as patients not paying if the drug is not effective within a specific time period.

What's happening with UK-listed drug companies?

Simmonds believes ‘rapidly moving technologies’ are behind the positive performance of parts of the UK quoted healthcare sector, pointing to upcoming Phase III results from firms such as ImmuPharma (IMM:AIM).

ImmuPharma is undergoing its Phase III trial for lead treatment Lupuzor with results expected in the first quarter of 2018. Lupuzor is anticipated to have blockbuster potential and is considered safer and more effective than GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Benlysta.

The drug treats lupus by modifying the behaviour of certain key cells involved in the development of the disease, which can be fatal as it causes the body to make antibodies that attack healthy tissue.

Shares in ImmuPharma have nearly doubled in price this year to 97p as investors anticipate positive results from the study.

More stocks with legs

Pharmaceutical products developer Silence Therapeutics (SLN:AIM) has also had a good year thanks to moves in the RNAi sector, according to Simmonds.

RNA is short for ribonucleic acid, which is a linear molecule that can play an important role in cells such as switching genes on and off.

RNA interference (RNAi) is used to study gene function by enabling gene expression and targeting only problematic genes that cause the disease.

Simmonds flags several catalysts behind Silence’s share price surge, including US listed Alnylam’s Phase III results for its patisiran to treat a rare nerve disorder and positive news on Spark Therapeutics’ therapy Luxturna.

Shares in Quantum Pharma (QP.:AIM) have had a good run this year thanks to a takeover offer by Clinigen (CLIN:AIM).

What news will continue to drive a strong performance?

One of the key catalysts for any company working in the biopharma industry are trial readouts, specifically Phase III results. A strong outcome can lead to approval from healthcare authorities. These include the US Food and Drug Administration or European Medicines Agency.

In the run up to results, investors tend to jump on the bandwagon and ride the share price momentum. There are several Phase III results expected in the next nine months, with some expected as early as the first quarter of 2018.

These include ImmuPharma, Faron Pharmaceutical’s (FARN:AIM) Traumakine treatment for acute respiratory distress syndrome and Shield Therapeutics’ (STX:AIM) Feraccru for treating iron deficiency anaemia.

In the first half of 2018, Phase III results are also anticipated from Diurnal (DNL:AIM) for its cortisol replace product Chronocort. (LMJ)

[best1467] 12/12/2017 14:41

I would suggest anyone who has been on this thread for at least a couple of months would have a greater understanding of the potential valuation of IMM than the muppets at finncap . I would not bother given it any airtime that goes for 90% of brokers clowns in my experience they had probably never even heard of IMM until the last few weeks.

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2017 14:00

Anyone know what the new PlusOneCoin thing?? (the grey box next to the Up/Down arrow and tweetie options)

Edit - just found and read....nothing like a bandwagon to jump on hey?? :)

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2017 13:28

Might be worth a short email to FinnCap to see where they got the £500mln figure from (given it is potentially 8 years out of date with significant transactions since to use as comparators)

Looking on their website - the note this am is likely to be by either Mark Brewer or Geoff Nash - hxxps://www.finncap.com/sector-expertise/life-sciences