Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[barriew] 13/12/2017 16:31

When the company has (topline data) who says it will be released to us straight away, if they have big pharma waiting for the results before making a final offer.
I dont know what the protocol is, but happy to wait whenever it is released in the first quarter.

[hottingup] 13/12/2017 16:21

On 25/1/2017 IMM announced "200 patients successfully recruited and randomised (dosed)" in the Phase III Lupuzor trial.



That means the last patient had commenced dosing by 25/1/2017 (say mid Jan 2017).

The trial protocol is that each patient receives 13 doses, each 4 weeks apart, for 48 weeks (commencing on day 1, last dose thus day 336).

Responses are variously evaluated at weeks 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32, 36, 40, 44, 48 and 52.

If the last patient to join the trial commenced dosing in mid Jan 2017, they would thus receive their last dose in mid Dec 2017, and their last evaluation at the end of week 52, i.e. mid Jan 2018. (If the last evaluation is at the end of week 52, last dose must have been administered 4 weeks before, i.e. week 48).

IMM's Tim McC said in an interview on 28/9/2017 that Simbac-Orion are collecting and collating the Phase III trial data as each patient finishes (rather than waiting until the end of the trial). I presume this could mean IMM will be in a position to publish headline results late Jan or Feb 2018.

[gisjob2] 13/12/2017 16:15

Thanks Barriew, sounds right to me.

[barriew] 13/12/2017 16:07

If anyone did some research,
The RNS dated 22/12/16 stated all the 200 patients had been recruited,

It was not untill 25/01/17 that a RNS was released to say all recruited and had the first dose.

So somewhere between these dates the last dose takes place,
Then a month later they have all the data.

So you would assume that results will be late febuary / march, imho
Dyor

[gisjob2] 13/12/2017 15:48

I thought the results would be known around March time ? Maybe I assumed this because results are due in Q1 and assumed the worst case. Great if it's sooner !

[top tips] 13/12/2017 15:47

Or more to the point I think it was hottingup who said he reckons the last patient gets their last dose around the end of this week. So presumably trial end around 28 days later with their last evaluation and results late January. Wonder if they will do follow-up monitoring like with Phase 2b and if so whether they tell patients who was on the active drug plus standard of care, and who just received standard of care

[hamhamham1] 13/12/2017 15:31

Its hard to believe there are only 7 more weekdays until Christmas.

[spawny100] 13/12/2017 15:27

I can see the mm's trying a savage dip at some point before end of year for a very short period to try to take out stops whilst not allowing anyone to buy in quantity

[hamhamham1] 13/12/2017 15:14

An observational point. The last couple of legs up seem to roughly be leg up 30%, then retrace 10%. (no shares ever go in straight line) By my calculations, if we follow the same pattern, the late 150p's is the 10% retracement for the latest leg up. Will be interesting to see if it holds here, consolidates then repeats the next leg up (to around 200p??). Who knows? Was just an observation.

[blackbear] 13/12/2017 14:23

Buys 2x sells should be 180p by now.

[barriew] 13/12/2017 14:15

We have had no rns or news that landstead has sold any of their holding.
If they are holding for results its a very positive statement, as we have discussed before they nornally sell on way before that.

[lukead] 13/12/2017 13:45

Are all those smallish sells that appear altogether at certain times at sudden lower prices ..... stop losses being engaged?

[waterloo01] 13/12/2017 13:43

Good to see the Finncap initiation. Numbers are a little confusing but 1st time I've seen (outside of this BB) these sorts of valuations.

pre readout price of £2.37 and on positive results £4.43 (market cap £570m) plus the value of £500m in upfront/milestones. Gets you to £bn company quite quickly, on positive results!

They also acknowledge the valuation might be overly cautious.

[ny boy] 13/12/2017 12:58

Happy holding here as only about 30 trading days until the end of January so I am expecting a steady rise until the start of the blockbuster newsflow.

Meanwhile have a good time on FOXT, BARC & TESCO decent buying going on

[hamhamham1] 13/12/2017 12:58

I can get 10,000 now, just must have been no market earlier. Cheers

[gbh2] 13/12/2017 12:49

I can get 10,000 @ 161.92 through my IG ISA + £8 trading cost so recommend you change your broker ham1.

Edit: changed to 163p

[sportbilly1976] 13/12/2017 12:43

Tricky,

50k at £20 is £1mln

50k purchased just a couple of months ago was just around the annual Isa limit :)

[tricky red] 13/12/2017 12:36

With so much talk about people becoming millionaires out of this, I often ask myself what the average holding must be.

[top tips] 13/12/2017 12:31

This is the place to be now.

[divinessence] 13/12/2017 12:17

Note the 10K buyer been chipping away for a while. Undoubtedly accumulation going on.

[hamhamham1] 13/12/2017 11:44

The most I can buy through Lloyds is 3500 shares currently. I guess a lot of people are holding tight - waiting for the arrival of another leg up?

[ourbr3tt0] 13/12/2017 10:20

Think a few day traders might be in this now. I will be holding not getting caught short on this beast

[gisjob2] 13/12/2017 09:36

Colsmith, it's great to make money but I completely agree with you. It's a horrible illness, let's hope the results bring great news not just for us but for the people struggling with lupus on a daily basis. It would be great for them to know a more effective treatment is just around the corner.

[ny boy] 13/12/2017 09:34

Just looked at chart..

Automatic technical analysis. Short term, Dec 12, 2017
IMMUPHARMA is within a rising trend. Continued positive development within the trend channel is indicated.

Can rise to the ceiling of the trend line 190.80p

[immy1992] 13/12/2017 09:28

3.5 pound pre results
11 pound post good results
40 pound buyout

Friendly wager anyone? Will be at the readout ( if theres one ) loser buys drinks